Audioburst Search

Coming up next

Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders discussed on The Forecast with Harry Enten

The Forecast with Harry Enten
|
4 months ago

Schools reopen abroad with new rules to keep faculty and students safe

Newsradio 950 WWJ 24 Hour News
|
7 hrs ago

New York public workers killed by virus to get line-of-duty death benefits

Dave Ramsey
|
7 hrs ago

Feds looking at Ahmaud Arbery's death as a hate crime, attorneys say

The Frankie Boyer Show
|
8 hrs ago

Trump threatens to move Republican National Convention out of North Carolina

All Things Considered
|
9 hrs ago

Family says Stanley Ho, the Macao casino tycoon considered the father of modern gambling in China, has died at 98

All Things Considered
|
2 hrs ago

Shoppers call out woman without mask at Staten Island store in New York City

Tim Conway Jr.
|
8 hrs ago

Grimes says she and Elon Musk changed baby's name

Orlando's Evening News
|
10 hrs ago

Hong Kong Security Law - Carrie Lam Dismisses Concerns Over Rights

BBC World Service
|
2 hrs ago

Outrage Grows Over Boris Johnson Aide's 260-Mile Trip During Lockdown

BBC World Service
|
2 hrs ago

Hanover High creates tribute for its graduating seniors

WBZ Afternoon News
|
14 hrs ago

Houston police shoot, kill 'emotional' man who fired gun into ground

Sean Hannity
|
13 hrs ago

17-year-old metro Atlanta boy who died of COVID-19 becomes youngest victim in Georgia

Sean Hannity
|
14 hrs ago

Houston mayor reverses course: Fire marshal to enforce 25 percent capacity limit on bars

John Williams
|
14 hrs ago

Boston - Methuen police say woman fired shots through van window

WBZ Midday News
|
15 hrs ago

Burst Details

Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders discussed on The Forecast with Harry Enten

Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Best I'm Kate Baldwin here with John avalon La and a somewhat questionable. You know some days you just try and pick yourself off the ground but some days you just WanNa lie there for a little while so are we currently lying on the ground or are we standing up You know physically. I believe we're sitting but metaphorically perhaps we we are lying down. Did you say Shalom Shalom. Thank you moving on. All eyes are on Washington as historic impeachment trial of president. Donald trump officially began on Tuesday. It's not only the third time in our nation's history that a president has been impeached. It's also the first time it's played out in an election year. There's fresh rush polling out showing about half of Americans think the Senate should vote to convict the president. What does that really mean? We're going to dive into the numbers and compare the past with the present and and see where we land then then a closer look at what impeachment means for Swing State Republicans the very senators that everyone is keeping their eye on as a Senate trial plays out as the Ken have may have or may not at all have an outsized impact on what happens next plus with two weeks until the Iowa Caucasus. There are new national numbers out. The suggest. Harry Endan is not completely crazy arguing. That folks just another one. There wasn't a crazy full stop which would mean it but when he has been arguing. That folks aren't paying close enough attention to Bernie Sanders. He might might not be completely nuts. We'll discuss first. Harry would you like to do the forecast or do you. Just want to sit there. And so Look here's the deal. The the deal is pretty simple in Iowa right now we have a clown car right. We have if you take an average of the polls simple at all thank who fit. Who who who goes first I to go second? Who goes toward they look? Joe Biden is at twenty one percent of the average polls Bernie sanders about seventeen percent and the average polls Huda judge worn warn hovering right around sixteen percent and Clo- char and fifth right around eight nine percent. So what I did was I went back over time since nineteen eighty and basically calculated how much the polls have generally been off at this point. Then I ran Some simulations and basically came to the following conclusions based upon where the polls are right now. we would expect that Joe Biden. Win The caucuses about one. Third of the time Bernie Sanders would win. The caucuses a little bit south of a quarter of the time while Buddha Judge and Warren a little bit south of a fifth of the time. CLO- Bazar comes in as a winner. Only about one in twenty times so basically what you see is no one has a better than one third chance of winning the Iowa. uh-huh caucuses what Cobra. Despite the fact that she's in fifth and SORTA has been spoken up really as an outsider. At this point only would win about one in twenty or point five over ten times for you mathematical West so I'm going to go for mathematical nerd to history nerd How does this compare with People in the top tier of IACOCCA's in the past. I I mean look really depends on which ones you're looking at if you look at the Republican caucuses about you know for years ago what you would see Z.. Is that both Donald Trump and and Ted Cruz. Probably a were were split closer to about forty percent or forty forty five percent. Send each to win the caucuses their odds would be based around polling versus. Someone like Rubio was probably about a one in ten shop maybe a little bit north of there and no one else really particularly close obviously on the Democratic Democratic side For years ago Hillary Clinton was favored but it was not a very large leads. You probably would have only one about two thirds of the time in that particular instance so about sixty seven percent of the time. These odds are kind of exciting. We're we're you know we're a lot of folks feel with the trends that you've seen gene pulls a lot of the time. It seems that the very clear that there's a top tier very clear number. One in some instances but we will obviously be dissecting that the second. I think that's exciting to see that the best that we see in the field in terms of odds right now one third. Yeah and and it'll be clear you know this is based solely around the polling. There are other forecasts. Yes you know. There are forecasts out there that take into account more than that and perhaps Biden and perhaps a little bit better but no one in anything. I've really seen is better than say about a two. Who in five or a forty percent chance of winning? There's still a lot to be determined and the other thing that I would point out is a lot of the Iowa polling. That has come in so far this month. On in my opinion with the exception of our own poll which perhaps goes the other way really has been under covering the youth vote? I believe based upon the numbers that I'm seeing and to me that is a suggestion that perhaps as we get more numbers in sanders may go up in the Iowa. Numbers relative Tiv- to everybody else. But this will change is the polling comes in. It's an oddsmaker gives you a good understanding. Putting the polls that in their current context into a historical oracle context to give you an understanding of what exactly mean as we look ahead to the Caucasus on the third who turns out to caucus more old people or young this this is interesting in a primary older people relative to their percentage of say. Saudi electorate would turn out more but in caucuses in fact that tends to neutralize that advantage significantly I would expect that the Iowa caucuses. We'll have perhaps those under the age of twenty nine could make up a fifth. I've seen as high as a quarter of voters and a lot of the polls that we've seen so far have a significantly lower percentage than that and I think we saw that to some degree in caucuses going pass right when we looked at two thousand eight where I think. A lot of people underestimated Barack Obama's strength going into those caucuses because they were under selling how many young on people would turn out isn't the plural of Caucuses Kakai no it's caucus. I'm just messing around okay. I've been doing this raw time time. final question Folks like likely to get less than fifteen percent. How do you see their votes reshuffling? If if we were to look at our own polling what we saw all was among those who weren't supporting Biden Buddha judge worn or sanders that they were more likely to choose Biden or Buddha judge or at least we're actively considering them more then they were worn or sanders. That was David Bender poll which I honestly thought underestimate how many young people will be turning out but showed something fairly similar which was that Biden. Buddha judge it'll be the beneficiary of those who weren't going to make the fifteen percent threshold Can we switch gears Trump's impeachment trial is getting underway. Both sides have been making comparisons to nine hundred ninety nine. The trial of President Clinton setting aside the rules and procedures which many are referencing in these comparisons listens to ninety nine. Another difference is that trump is not squaring off against a Senate held by the opposing party. This time members of the president's own party hold a majority in the Senate and even so according to a new CNN poll conducted by Sri about half of Americans fifty one percent say the Senate should vote to Convict Act and remove him from office. Forty five percent say the Senate should vote against conviction and removal. So let's compare this to Clinton's impeachment Gallup looked looked at several polls conducted in early ninety nine and found that an average of thirty three percent of Americans were in favor of the Senate convicting Clinton and removing from office. Sixty three percent were opposed. What do you guys think of those comparisons it's bonkers? I mean I've been doing this reality. Check in a couple of a couple of different ways. Just keep in mind that in both cases the economy is very strong right And yet after Bill Clinton is impeached. So in December of ninety eight his approval rating rating. Goes up seventy three percent. Donald trump remains very steady at forty two forty three The fact that a majority of Americans want him not just impeached but removed. And I think that language is really important because that's a higher bar. That's the highest Bar Says you know that just compounds. The fact that this is a deeply unpopular president who hasn't been able to build out beyond.