Holly Wade, Paul, Justus discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


At the open, the S and P 500 down two towns percent or seven points and 36 91, the Dow Jones industrial average down a quarter percent or 73 points at 30,141. And the NASDAQ is little changed up six at 12,470 10 year treasury of a 32nd 0.93% they yield on the two year 20.14% Nynex Crude oil is down 1% or 44. Cents a 45 82 a barrel Comex gold is up to 10%, or $3.70 at 18 43 80 announce the euro 1.2137 against the dollar the yen in 104.4. Paul and Lisa. Thank you so much. Karen. Really Justus fascinating. How markets Just bleed hired a better What? Interesting to see whether the feeling among businesses is similar to what we're seeing in markets. There's been dissonance over the year with respect to the markets flying high and looking to 2021 businesses trying to struggle through the reality of now, joining us now to give us a sense of the on the ground. Look, Holly Wade, Neighbor Outlook, Survey Chair National Association of Business Economics and And F I. B Research center executive director on the December outlook from businesses Holly What's the headline here in terms of how they're feeling, especially in light of the fact that the pandemic is worsening. Sure, certainly their number of factors that our Panelists are looking at. As far as forecasting ahead in the near term and medium term. One is the elevated spike in Covered related, um, infection rates, but also it's the new are, you know the news of vaccines that will hopefully be rolled out? Um, you know, over the next six months, so looking at all those factors on balance, our Panelists saw that about 37% found that on balance economic growth through 2021 was weighted on the downside, but another quarter said on the upside. About, 37% said. Neither so there are many factors looking forward that will impact GDP growth. The labor market Um, and putting all those together you know, it becomes a bit of a mixed bag. So, Holly, your Your survey was done. Post election. What if some of your survey folks how are they thinking about Biden administration and that positive and the negative or maybe too early to tell I'm right now. It's a little early to tell. We did ask the question, and for the most part, they haven't they haven't changed their forecast based on election results. Whether that is, it's too early to tell or anticipating of Republican controlled Senate that would hold many Biden administration initiatives. Going forward, but most have not revised their forecast. Based on the election results so far, Ali There's a question also about the diverging fates of small business versus big business. Big business, ample access to capital markets. That bridge to the other side is ample, robust and they're smaller businesses. It's been harder Do you see that divergence in optimism, depending on the size of the business? Well, we do look at that specifically in the survey itself, But from the perspective of N if I'd be Yes, there's certainly a diverging factor there with small and large with small business is not interested in accumulating more debt. They're certainly looking to access another round of P p p financial assistance and so hopefully that will be pushed through Congress in relatively short order to help You help those small business owners that are still very negatively impacted by the virus and pandemic. Holly, one of the real key challenges here, in this economic downturn resulting from the pandemic has been the jobs market and we see it in the weekly jobless claims. We we had some data last Friday on on the unemployment and so on. What's the concern of the folks you chat with about You know, Maybe a lot of these job losses are much more permanent than maybe we had initially thought at the beginning this pandemic. Was certainly so about 70 Well. 69% of the respondents in the nape survey anticipate that between 690.1 and 5% of jobs will be permanently lost due to the health crisis. Another 31% are anticipating between 5 to 10% of jobs will be permanently lost in the health crisis is the extension of the health crisis. How it's impacting specific industries looking at, you know certain services, restaurant bars in the entertainment industry and travel industry. Yeah, Anticipating that there will be large losses of just Holly. I think that we've lost Holly. Yes, we'll try to get her back. I think that it's really fascinating to me to see how business they're getting more optimistic even as the pandemic worsens, Paul because they do see the prospect of a post pandemic reality. And there was a question about that for a while. If you remember sure, and I think what we're starting the narrative that starting to Developed out there is that not only do we see light at the end of the tunnel, but we actually have a much better sense of how long that tunnel is, You know, you know, I think the consensus is kind of building towards Boy you think about mid year next year, and that seems to be that you know what it's junior or whatever. But that seems to be a time frame where folks feel like boy. We're gonna have the vaccines in reasonable size in terms of distribution going toe getting somewhere closer to that herd immunity. That's so important that we heard from Dr Sharpstein from Trans Hopkins Talk about S O. That seems to be the timeframe that think people were kind of coalescing around and that provides a little bit more certainly versus where we were, you know, six months ago, but this is this is this is the strange thing. I was looking at the survey and it actually shows that 57% of people business owners that responded Not the greatest downside risk to economic growth was a second wave of covert 19. Well, we have a second wave of covert 19. So I'm struggling to understand at what point that starts to matter against. We have record numbers. Yep. Like what? We have Holly Wade back with his Lisa let xgo to her Holly. So one of things at least I were just talking about here was the second wave. It is here. It's impacting, you know, communities all across the country. How do you respond? It's kind of put that into context. Is that just part of their calculus of near term pain before we get to some Some better times ahead in the 2021. Yes, that was the primary issue regarding the greatest downside risk to the U. S economy through 2021 from our Panelists, who who said that? On balance, they are anticipating downside Brisk. Was the second wave of covert 19, you know, And that is the primary factor were experiencing it now, um, you know, looking forward through the end of the holiday season. We'll see how that progress is. Hopefully it starts easing up, but that is them..

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