Aaron, Mike He, Thirty Six Percent discussed on Schopp and Bulldog

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How is it that every time we have a hearing on this open still surprises me but I was fearful it's entire lifespan when Aaron was a regular guest with us and so I've heard it dozens of times and it still always surprises me Erin shots is on the western hotline I'm a bulldog sorry say Mike he's got the day off today she just stuck with me hired our things Hey things are good man how are you doing I'm doing I'm doing great football outsiders dot com the almanac is out folks can get to the website in order there or through Amazon or wherever if you got a preferred site go and tell me I would imagine football outsiders dot com right is the preferred actually yeah we make more money if you buy the PD up off of our site but I want a physical book that's what we got for you at Amazon you can buy it there all right well I'm glad we got you to really go over every play from this bills cold preseason told last night and I know you can't wait for that yeah what we'll get to the bills actually I do want to start some someone like off the beaten path at least for why we usually bring you on and I'm just curious if you're up to speed on what Michael silver is reporting via Twitter regarding Antonio brown there's like a long thread of stuff and it just seems not what's going on with Antonio brown are you up to speed on that or no yeah I read part I read part of the red and then it just kept going and going I I I could I could all be deep into it so much right so he wants to wear his helmet that is no longer allowed by the regulations and therefore he's angry at the team and he's staying away from the team even though it NFL regulation you know that's not the team right right yeah okay and or maybe his feet are frozen okay so this is been stuff so it was not exactly a conversation about advanced metrics and analytics here but what just wow it just it just sort of came across my plate as we were going to break to get ready to have you on so I I just felt compelled to at least bring it up like that it just seems like an all time crazy scene there what ages slot I think sometimes if I understood some of the things that the players that I would call my site football psychologist football right yeah I I guess I don't know mid may maybe some bills fans are feeling somewhat grateful that they maybe Dodge this cryogenic frozen feet the helmet fiasco we'll see maybe maybe all blow over it'll be fine like he's found a way to skip some training camp and he'll get there but what a thing all right Erin shots is with us here the the bills two thousand nineteen like what's what's the overview and then maybe we'll get into some specifics here and sure I mean with that we're not that high on the bill I'll be perfectly Frank are mean projected for them is six point nine wins which is near the bottom of the AFC it I mean not as bad as Miami we have Miami is our worst projected team for this year we do have the bills with a projected easy schedule the whole way up the east has easy schedule this year but we only have to making the postseason in twenty two percent of our simulation okay and is this large lead Josh Ellen bass Storer like what what else contributes to it I I know Ellen has been someone who like when you're on we usually get flooded afterward with what was wrong with that guy and you probably hear it on Twitter to but I'll bet it starts with Allen it's so we'll talk about that and then we'll get into maybe some other factors right because there are certain issues with our projection treat the defense but yeah it starts with Josh Allen and look for a quarterback who did it first couple years are projected for that quarter back it's going to be based heavily on the quarterback projection system that we call Cubase the project quarterbacks from college to the pros and Josh Allen did historically terribly enough projection system because he was so inaccurate in college and look at it would be a wonderful story if he turned out to be better than we thought we turned out to be totally wrong it would be a wonderful story I just don't see it as the likely happen yeah so it in that's despite the upgrade well let's talk about the upgrades like John Brown Cole Beasley the offense of line like hot hot what do you think of the help that the bills have tried to give Alan going into your to hear yeah I mean what did they absolutely have tried given help the the build it's very difficult to criticize what they did to promote our office perspective this offseason I mean and you know the negativity in our projection is about the quarterback it's about typical regression variables it's not about the decisions that they made as a front office off these and certainly well we get the defense we could talk about at all over but on offense I mean there's a little bit of a sense of let's throw as much spaghetti against the wall and see what decks when it comes to the office of life and they brought in just so many guys but I mean some of those guys are are you know clearly upgrade clearly upgraded quality starring starting of course with with Mitch bores and the you know John Brown is very talented receiver Cole Beasley is a good slot receiver you know it's it's a little weird because it makes you know Robert proctor had a nice little rookie year and it makes him kind of superfluous at this point but you know you like the stuff that they brought in but the problem is your projection for an office is just base so heavily on the quarterback and all of our numbers just do not speak highly of Josh al what we're separate the roster of the rock right he yes yeah a fantastic scrambling ability and felt that help that's a big help for them we're we're within what what he projects as like where where does he need how can he raise his score within within your framework I guess this is a way that I want I want I I want to I want to pose a question thank you one of the things that he can do that with within the less realistic like what's a good what's a good Kate what's a good scenario for him I mean you need just all about around improved put it this way though if he because of his rushing ability if you were just replacement level you know average back up replacement level at this as a pastor he would he would be probably a better than average starting quarterback because he has so much Russia the problem is that you know average back up replacement level is about thirteen or fourteen percent below average and we had Josh Alan last year is thirty six percent below average by our DP away right about that that doesn't mean you write a mop with them there's a table in the buffalo chapter of the book that goes through the worst rookie season five first round quarterbacks since our numbers begin which is thirty two years ago and there are some guidelines here who seriously turned it around Donovan McNab with terrible as a rookie Matthew stopper with about the same as Josh down as a rookie those guys obviously turned things around Jared Goff what's the worst rookie quarterback we've ever measured and he led his team to a Super Bowl last year so you know it we're not gonna write the guy off but our projections for college you just you're talking about a quarterback who was inaccurate in college who is an accurate as a rookie it's hard to see where he suddenly become accurate is affected your life did you have you noticed anything when looking at his rookie year was their improvement we talked to a lot of people who and and and we noticed this too and I think even like formation percentage wise it gets backed up they they they looked like a different offense Wayland return from injury verses before he got hurt and there was more spread and again a lot of the success he had was running out of that but they seem to figure out maybe how to try to deploy him most effectively better in the back like last six games of the year as opposed to the earlier part of the schedule before the injury did you notice anything in that way when looking at two thousand and eighteen yes that is absolutely backed up by the numbers right I said he was thirty six percent below average in the past that without that sixty sixty percent below average in the first half of the season and sixteen percent below average in the second half of the people so yes he was much better in the last few games however we did some research on this this offseason looking at quarterback in particular young quarterback who improved significantly in the second half of the year because we wanted to look at Baker may be all right Baker Mayfield also improved significantly in the second half of the year so did stamped Arnold so did Alan and what we found was that it's much better to project a quarterback based on his performance over the entire year then based on just the second half of the year even if he's in improving youngster like you want to believe that if you're young and you improve in the second half of the year that it really means something but it turns out it doesn't really mean that much some of it could just be random variation and it's better to look at the quarterback performance over the whole year and so that's the that's the frustrating thing about pointing out the talent was better he was better in the second half but I don't know if it matters Erin shots from football outsiders is on the western hot line with me here on WGR the football outsiders almanac for two thousand nineteen is available at their website football outsiders dot com is where you can find that so you mentioned the defense and we'll get that all over so how about the defense it was second in the league in yards but points wise was that good so give me the D. V. O. A. on that and and and wow the projection looks moving into this year and well PVO way our R. G. B. O. a ratings really liked the buffalo defense last year we had the second because they weren't they weren't as good in points allowed in part because they started in that field position because the offense being terrible put the defense in the back heel position if you filter that out they were very strong people album is defense is much much less consistent from year to year than offense and tend to regress towards mean much stronger than off and plus the bills were not a good defense in the year two prior and teams that have a huge improvement like the bill had last year tend to go back a little bit to what they were before we call that the plexiglas printable now all fully it met I think that are the number projection here is kind of overstating how much the defense is going to regret I think the builder's still going to have a good pizza we have the regrets thing to be average I think they're still gonna be a good defense and part of that is I really love the at all perfect you're very talented player right in the middle of that defense should be phenomenal at the specially as a as a pass rusher you know he's like the giants want to take these big nose tackle the big run stopping nose tackles in the trap in the first round but everything that we've seen in analytics talk about the pass rush being more important stopping the run and what buffalo got here with the pass rush particularly pass rush in the middle of the line to more direct route right look at it feels to me like edge rushers we haven't seen this from salary standpoint yet in the league but with how quickly guys are getting rid of the ball quarterback humor to the ball if you look the guys off the edge are being I don't I'm not quite neutralized maybe that's too strong but feels like guys coming up the middle are more effective yeah there is some evidence of that and so I think and all over really count player so again yeah like I said about the often it's hard to criticize what the front office did it's not like we don't have the bills protected well because we think the crown office made mistakes right but that's more the case with the giants not keep bringing them up what with the bills it's much more about sort of what the numbers say and regression to the mean another thing is that we had them as sort of an older defense but they may be a little younger than we previously had them with that depending on sort of who the starters are and now that rock feel bush is gone that makes them a little bit younger probably using Karen Johnson at the Nickle backer Wallace so in our pre season projections that we do you in early September the bills defense may come out a little better okay couple other players on defense I'd like to ask you about specifically trained admins second your middle linebacker big freakishly talented you know big learning curve he was twenty years old start of last season so still very young guy and then I want to get to today yes why too but but I'm curious what you've got on admins.

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