FED, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Radio discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


If markets continue to act as irrationally exuberant as the Airbnb AIPO proved the Fed has to do something maybe beyond moving to neutral. Don't think No, no, that is my take mad, But I'm just making the case here that we first need to move to move through. And then we move into our hiking cycle. And when we get to the hiking cycle, I think you have a detrimental negative impact on the stock market, because the fact is that if you look at the NASDAQ 200 national next day in the 100 index, they have had no earnings increases over the last two years. So all of the increase in valuation that receive in our technology Mainly part for you is from the fact that we have an interest rate sensitivity supporting the stock. So in other words, the worst economy gets the more support you get from the integrates sensitivity part. And in verse when we go to a high inflation, high standard rate, Ah, higher capacity utilization. Yes, Clearly the rate sensitivity will be very negative for the technology in particular. All right, Steve. Thanks so much for joining us Really appreciate your time Seen Jacobsen Saxo Bank Chief Investment officer. I wish you a happy New year Happy, socially distance and masked. New Year's Eve, Carol Man wouldn't have 2% on the 10 year Temper tantrum Taper tantrum that would Have to be forthcoming. Maybe a little bit about I'd have a little bit of both. I mean, I think it would shock the markets. I think we know the Fed has consistently and constantly say Math that they are going to be data dependent. They're gonna watch what's going on, Certainly around the globe, But if we did start to see inflation tick higher. I don't know that I agree with his assessment. I think there's a lot of things that are potentially keeping inflation down in 2021. We'll have to see. I guess it depends on demand and how much all of this loose money that's been floating around, But we had a lot of cheap money and a lot of money come into the marketplace. Coming after the financial crisis and what we got was a very long but low growing expansion. And I wonder J. Powell has talked about that happening again. We'll see if that's what we ultimately get in 21. Well, it will also be interesting to see what happens. With fiscal policy alongside the Fed policy right because if Steen is correct, and the Fed moves to neutral and then starts to contemplate tightening At the same time, as the government is doling out $2000 checks every quarter and spending $2 trillion on an infrastructure package. You might not see the kind of taper tantrum that you saw last time. And there's so much cash on the sidelines as well. This financial repression has been pushing people into riskier and riskier assets, even if that rotates Back into, you know, safe names like apple. You're still going to see the kind of run up that you saw in 2020 84% the game by the way, Apple is worth $2.3 trillion. It just means it sets up for an interesting year in 2021. All right, coming up. Erik Nelson, Wells Fargo Macro strategist. Watching Bloomberg surveillance and listening to Bloomberg surveillance on Bloomberg Radio on Bloomberg TV. This is Bloomberg. Now, let's get.

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