Trae Young, Jeff Sherman, Janas discussed on Behind the Bets

Behind the Bets
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Automatic TRANSCRIPT

Bobby welcome to the latest behind the bets podcast and there's different ways to approach what's going on the nba. But i thought an oddsmaker would make the both sense and when you're talking oddsmaker in the nba. You're talking jeff sherman at the west gate. Las vegas super book jeff. Thanks for taking the time. We just won't tell murray that you did the pot. I don't want any attention behind the scenes there at the office. I'm sure he'd be a missing this one out so i won't let them know okay. Good it'll be our little secret. Okay so look. It can be a giant headache. I would imagine handling all this and we have a record now. Unfortunately of all stars that are gonna miss postseason games or that have already missed. Postseason games in maybe honest is headed there to all signs point to it. I guess just like how are you approaching. Let's start micro game five line like what do you do when you have such uncertain status of trae young and yannis. We have to wait some percentages on what you think. These guys are going to be available for and in all likelihood from our perspective. I don't think that Janas will be available for the next game so we price it based on that and then we have to on the other side factor in trae on. So it's kind of a wait and see approach with him where he plays. He's gonna have some movement on the line downwards an akin creep up at the same time so it's kind of a a middle ground line involving trae young but more of a a'doubtful line with you on us so when you say middle ground so you're saying right now the bucks at home in game five series tied to to minus two and a half. So you're saying if trae young goes it's probably going to one and if he doesn't it's going to like four. Yeah that's that's exactly what i'm thinking. Okay and how much of that is like the market. I mean do you look. I'm okay being collaborative in my profession. Sometimes like i'm gonna wait to the market posted. Just copy them at least to start there or do you want to just do your own numbers power rating from the whole season. Go from there or generally we do our own numbers and you'll see a right. One one game has finished. We'll go ahead and stick up the next line right away. And we've been doing that throughout the play offs. We didn't do it last night. Trying to wait and find out more information so this morning i posted next hawks bucks game there were already some numbers out there but i had some numbers in mind but we just didn't need to do it right away last night. Just because such a huge injury with jaanus and the question ability of that but generally we're doing our own numbers. We have a thought process when we get it up and you know most of the time it's within reason what comes out there and then you'll see some bets to iron it out but We're definitely have our own power ratings. Our numbers like to get that out as soon as we can. So you mentioned taking bets so you guys obviously categorize all your accounts meaning player accounts. And then you'll just move based on respected play now worried about any head fakes meaning for those listening. Just a fake basically saying like some guy may really like one side but will play the other side early known the books react and then just come over the top when he can get more down. Well you know. We have a different oddsmakers in in different areas. Here that have their specialties. And you know when we follow this stuff and have an idea of a power hitting the number than we can kinda tell if someone is trying to do something because it wouldn't make sense from that perspective so as long as we know the wise on the bats than we're comfortable with it and not just sitting there blindly taking something we're not following so you've minus one thirty. That's the consensus in the neighborhood. Bucks or favorite again. It's now a best of three series. Looks like trae young. Probably gonna play sooner than jaanus. How much of the hawks power rating increased and improved since the. Let's say the playoffs started. Well there's no question it has gone up especially with them knocking off the sixers embiid played all those games. Even though he wasn't a hundred percent that that was still a daunting task for them to come out of that series so definitely improved from that perspective. And we've seen trae young girl up as a player in these playoffs. Even more than what what. He was so They they've definitely been respected even saw that in the game one line of milwaukee their cats and seven and a half and that was regular season. You probably would have seen upwards near nine and a half. How much of the coaching matchup. And i'll say mismatch in favor of nick nate mcmillan just will infect these power ratings in this in all these moving parts like i would imagine you probably put a stronger value on a given that coaching is going to be really important. Given the adjustments that will have to be made. Well we know what balloon hawsers about and from our perspective is more of a regular season coach and You know it's built into the number. We don't sit there and each game. Say okay well. He's still involved and things like that. So we know what the teams about is a whole what to expect out of it. Just put up a number based on that. i'm torn here obscene trays. A good to go. I'm probably gonna play the hawks. But i will implore everyone don't react to what you last saw. You know we play amateur psychologist. I joke about it a lot. But i think it really helps in the playoff series for example when the wizards and sixers were playing. It was three. Oh and then joel goes down mid game. The wizards won so it's three one going back to philly. Everyone's like oh. Look at the wizards. They were so much better. They're gonna win this game outright at six point dogs i no star gets injured mid game and they're kind of up. It's much different now. They can implement a game plan. I was on the sixers to one. Kyri goes down. That's kinda rolled over in the second half against milwaukee to coming home now took a great effort and forty nine point performance. But what you saw mid game with a team that had a series lead is going to be very different with a day off preparing knowing what the situation is without their star so be very careful. Just kind of reacting to the hawks blowing out the bucks after the jaanus injury. Obviously the bucks deep down new. They were up to one they had to regroup and i expect a better performance from milwaukee..

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