Europe, United States, South Africa discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast
My my estimate would be that would be impacted and just we saw the other day in things like south? African rand. In the next compay so I think the the first order effect would be through emerging-market currencies outside of something specific happening in in Europe. Now, we know with the European Bank index has been doing. For the past ten years in terms of kind of pulling. With a very large gravitational pull to to lower numbers. In terms of share prices I expect that continue this would definitely. Bait that. but I think the first order effects in the immediate effects would be in the in the emerging currencies the the story in South Africa and Brazil are slightly different right? All these things you have to kind of paint a picture and see what the weak points are the weak point. In Brazil and South Africa are the fiscal numbers in the dollar debt numbers. Numbers and trickier high but not quite as bad as the other countries. Okay. So let me see viner's Greg you would be. You based on. Your in this makes an even stronger gains for your bears this or is a bear Caesar's in Europe, which is derived entered. I wait take it one step higher on the global chain. And get back to your earlier point about the dollar and you know the best of a bad bunch I think the dollar is the best of the bad bunch. The US economy is the best of say a hurting bunch in terms of the impact their in nineteen. Now we have the US has the highest potential GDP It's it's the largest economy in the world it's got. Higher, productivity levels in most countries particularly. Europe as a whole and I think the US will be the leader. and particularly some of the contemporaneous numbers. And Some high frequency indicated we've been modeling. Point to the US doing better here relative to Europe and I think you're seeing that in some of the confidence numbers, industrial production numbers, inflation numbers coming out of Europe, as well as the covid nineteen mobility numbers. That leads us to view on the dollar. The overall issues in Europe on how the euro has evolved since its existence in the decline in Italian productivity and competitiveness in the rise in debt levels. In the package that's come out which was described as Hamilton Tony Moment, which I think is as far from the truth as you can get. In that only addresses ten percent of Italy's needs over the next few years. And that ten percent is contingent upon meeting hurdles which are unlikely to be met. that. Leads us to a Europe view versus the dollar and a peripheral view within Europe..