When Will Victoria's Death Count Stop Rising?



Victoria is starting to look like a success story that number is starting to drop. Well, it's starting to live a little bit down there, which Norman is exactly what you predicted last week. I'll look out later thing coming down myself, I, mean we're recording this before eventually. Choose these figures. But yeah, I'd like to thank for coming down, but I'm not going to be arrogant are une humble about my prediction. You'd never you would never noticed a couple of people in twitter asking me to hang on Thursday before take a lap of owner. Happy for Victorians that it's not going up again and does look if it's turning the corner. I guess it is heartening that the cases seem to be trending downwards. The new daily seem to be trending downwards in Victoria, but it is cyber saying that the daily deaths US still increasing unfortunately, that's the case and what you're seeing here is the result of those very high days a couple of weeks ago, seven, hundred, five, hundred, six, hundred cases a day and. And what happens with covid nineteen said before on Krona cast is that if you're gonNA, get seriously ill you get seriously ill in the second week of the illness and that's what you're seeing now is you just see people coming through and some Yankee to thirty year olds fifty year olds dying, and this is what happened two weeks ago in the course of the The owners and as the lower number started flow through the system, you'll start to see a lower number of deaths, but you're probably going to see increases in deaths for the next few days and won't be until the beginning of next week that will start to turn ride. I. Think will not to trivialize it, but you did make a prediction about the daily case. Case numbers, and it seems hopefully to be to be holding forth. Do you have any idea about when we might to see this? This death rights start to drop news probably going to be a week ten days behind behind the turnaround in numbers because you've just got this effect and the other problem with deaths is that people are sick for a long time. It's not as if you get really sick and die very quickly in the second week, is some people get very seeking many of them will get better over time and they're very seek for sometimes weeks on end and our intensive care for maybe a month. This is not a short lived illness, and sometimes they lose the battle ray sadly, and you're not necessarily going to see a reliable click through of deaths in relation to. To the curve and the epidemic curve will be roughly equivalent that. But only roughly because of that long tail of days that go into people who are seriously ill, some of whom will get better many of them fact, and some of them

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