Trump's tanking in the polls
Anzalone, welcome to campaign HQ David Blah always good to hear your voice. Yeah, you and I met I back in Iowa back in the eighties, not to date ourselves, but the answer. Let me start with this. Let's talk about swing voters for minute. Obviously Joe Biden is doing. Incredibly well in public polls I'd assume he's also doing well in your own polling correct. Yeah I think that it's fair to say that. We're seeing a lot of what the public polls are showing that you know. This is in some ways I. Mean you've seen you've been through a lot of presidential campaigns, and as you said, we've been in this together for over thirty years, so we've seen a lot of historical data and quite frankly what we're seeing right in the public bowls and internal is. Is pretty historic right, so let's start with what we might consider. The Swing Voter Side of the ledger, and then we'll talk about some of the turn out registration targets, so you know you have been part of campaigns world. We Lost White Seniors by twenty points. We a static. You guys right now. white seniors or tied of which means with seniors overall your head. Talk about that like why is that? How much of that do you think it'd be maintained over the next fifteen weeks? I think that there's a couple of things you know. When we take a look at swing, voters There's actually like four really important groups that. You know everyone wants to compare how Biden's doing public Poland's with Hillary but what's really interesting about key group set of moved from sixteen. Is that Biden's not only doing much better and leading in most polling with Voters over sixty five, but he's leading with suburbanites. He's leading with independence, and he's leading with college voters, and so those are like four really important groups that not only did trump win, but is you know Romney won right and so listen? These presidential candidates. Have Different coalition I mean people like to talk about the Obama coalition in. It's important. But Biden's coalition, GonNa look different and clearly part of this started in two thousand, eighteen where we saw suburban women Super White Women College Educated Women but also college educated men really move. I mean take a look at Gretchen Whitmer who is a a a client of ours in places like Oakland County Right She also wanted to Comb County Reagan Democrats which is interesting, which also biting one in the primary, so we're seeing these swing. Voters these groups that Biden is bringing around that is different than the coalitions that we've seen. Seen in the past while at the same time narrowing margins within the Republican base with white voters and also rural voters, and keeping on par with our democratic base, right with young voters in women, and so You know when you, of course you know two thousand eight you. You saw this I. Mean when you are moving, and you have a moment, or if you sustain that moment, you tend to do well almost everywhere, meaning that even in the Republican base voters, rural voters and things like that, you tend to narrow the margins, and they're on margins. In tough places. Is just as important as doing well in some of these other swing areas. Now just specifically unseen Yars I. Listen, you know we see trump's jump rating just getting worse and worse on handling the coronavirus eppendorf pandemic clearly seniors Vulnerable the most at risk, and I think they're reacting directly to that risk in terms of feeling like he didn't get serious enough. He didn't listen to medical experts. He didn't have a plan and now with the kind of the surge feel like he's put his head in the sand and I think it's just cost him dearly with that largest age bracket the motor sixty five, and over the last Democratic presidential candidate to win sixty five and over. Is Al Gore so that Kinda gives you an idea. Of! How important this is! Yeah, reminded. Every election is its unique beast so on whether it's seniors suburban voters, you mentioned both college educated women and men Joe Biden right now, doing extremely well. Two questions for you John Do you think he's close to his ceiling there and the job really for your campaign is to maintain those numbers. Do you think there's room to grow? And secondly just how durable do think it is? Do you think that some of these voters are already locked in and is going to be really hard for trump to dislodge them? You get a feeling that where we are today. is very difficult for trump and listen first of all we should say we. We all have a collective PTSD right from two thousand sixteen, and so none of us are getting overseas, but at the same time you know you have to acknowledge the good polls because you know, there's a couple of things that are different from where Joe Biden is from past democratic nominees, including Barack Obama and and twelve. In that, he's also at fifty percent. Right at this point in time whatever what hundred four days and you know there's been no Democrat or Republican candidate you go all the way back to two thousand who's reached that threshold and so you know that's really import. The other part is is that Joe. Biden isn't scary to voters. I mean that's one reason he's leaving with independence. And if you take a look at I don't know the NBC Paul I think is is a good example or one of the most recent ones where I think it's the Fox foxhole. We're Biden is actually above water popularity. Naturally trump is underwater, but trump's very unfavorable is at forty seven percents, and binding I. Think is at thirty one. There's win been one thing that I think when they write about Joe Biden in the primary and the general election is the stability of his vote, right? It really hasn't moved that much. I mean trump's has moved down during the primary I mean. We're biden kind of started at the beginning. He ended at the end. It was very stable. Other people moved all around, but Joe Biden was incredibly stable and I think. Think that we're GONNA see that same dynamic here and we have really in the last several months. The Joe Biden's vote has been incredibly stable it's in a couple of points to the fifty percent mark. trump has moved down right and that is that is a good thing but the stability is important for Joe Biden. One is how voters view him and to how voters view trump. You know there was the I think it was the B. Poll that showed fifty percent of voter said there was no chance at all that they would vote for trump, and so your question is you know, will biden's numbers remain stable, and there just seems to be a universe of voter that is completely cut off from trump and it's because of how people you him prior. Let's think about this. Let's dissect prior to the pandemic. People you know we always heard the same thing. Whether it was you know for for Biden. Her for US Senate race for a congressional race. Is that people disliked? His behavior is tweeting his bowling. He was a jerk They basically just didn't like him as a human being, but hey, you know it's not like some of his agenda and his policies. They like how he took on. The median shook things up in Washington, DC. Now they're problem with him. Is Not only behavior how he reacted in a protest and things like that doubling down. Of Racism but their main problem is. Is that they feel that he failed the leadership test on the three crises, whether it was the health and crisis, whether it was the police brutality protests crisis, and now the economic crisis, which is hurting his economic numbers, and so they're now viewing him His biggest problem isn't just his behavior which they haven't forgotten. It's his lack of leadership or his mishandling of these crisis, so three and a half years in their judging him president. President. They're not judging him as a personality. That is his biggest problem right now, and you know I don't think that you know that's going to change. I think that we have a couple more crises potentially coming very soon, college kids and K. through twelve kids start going to school and mid August and you know it's GonNa be It's going to be really a a really tense time. I think it's GonNa. Be a problem for a lot of communities, a lot of states, a lot of holds and that is the problem. They're going to squarely put. On trump because he didn't take this series at the beginning, you didn't listen to medical experts. He didn't have a plan. And that's a problem I mean. We have more crises coming quite frankly. Yeah, now that's that's a great point and your point about his very under favorable I mean if he's sailing into voting time in late September and October with forty seven percent, unfavorable lombardo grounds He's really up against a wall there so John. I, think one of the mistakes. Sometimes you can make whether it's politics. Are Businesses your opponent? Your competition does something puts. Puts out, an ad or new strategy and you know you're like well. That's dumb and of course I've learned like you better. Take a minute and think through why they think it's smart right, but on this suburban thing what what strikes it's almost like trump got a briefing saying you're hemorrhaging the suburbs and he's like Ooh I. Know what I'll say. I'M GONNA say Joe Biden is going to destroy the so like. Do you see any evidence that that tactic which seems to be front and Center for trump, and his campaign now has any chance of succeeding. Listen I think that you know you and I have been through a lot of campaigns, and when you're in a campaign where you're behind, and you're behind eight or ten points, what do you do you just kinda start throwing things at the wall and he tends to throw things at the wall I. Mean You know in one week? He's hitting us on. China I mean all paid TV the next week. He's in his on. You Know Nafta now. Now, he didn't on defunding the police and so they try a lot of different things out right but the fact is is that trump was up on TV in the battleground states for a couple of months prior awesome. You sure what the number is, but I think it's close to fifty million dollars. We never saw the numbers. Move I. Mean you see that in the public calling right? I mean our numbers actually got better. His numbers got worse even though he was on TV by himself and very high levels as well as with his allies, and so you know now. We're on TV. So now we're in a position to you. Know have our own message. Ever Own Voice of voters see what Biden's about What's his agenda and his vision and again we don't see any deterioration a matter of fact, if the last ten days are any indication and again we don't you know. We don't get over our skis on this but the. The. Number of polls have showed this in double digits. is a good place to be. It doesn't mean that we're not gonNA work hard doesn't mean we don't take anything for granted. We know that we just gotTa fight for every vote and we know that it's going to get closer because that's what thing, but that's just. The natural physics of presidential races but I think that again it goes to the opponent meaning Joe Biden. clearly isn't Hillary Clinton. You were talking about very unfavorable in two thousand sixteen. Trump's very unfavorable was forty seven percent, and Hillary's was forty five percents, so there was a lesser of two evils dynamic. Going on, you always see this kind of analysis of what they call double haters, people who dislike both candidate. Well you can't call them double haters this time because they are. They hate trump, but they just kinda just like Joe. Biden are they dislike politics? Right is so his very unfavorable with that group is you know literally I? Think it's a quarter of trump's, and he wins that group by forty plus points depending on the pulled that you see, and that's actually really important again. They don't see Joe Biden scary. They see him as a compassionate relatable. Guy you know they keep the fact that he's lunch Pail Joe and he's a guy. WHO's GONNA look out. For Working Families and he is, you know someone that one. The trump and their allies throw punches. you know they? They're not sticking like their sticking and past presidential campaign. Right, so I WANNA. Talk about filling in the blanks on Joe. Biden, what you guys have started to do, but I want on I. WanNa talk about battlegrounds from and so you made an important point. which is you know when you've got momentum? Momentum in a campaign particularly national campaign. You see you see you see progress everywhere. It's just not in a particular state or region, so I a couple of questions one. Are you seeing with swing voters in particular? Are you seeing the same strength for Joe Biden in the south in the Midwest and the West and I guess secondly I would've thought. Let's say ninety days ago hundred twenty days ago, trump's floors, floor and battlegrounds. Forty six. It looks like it may be lower. So what do you think is I? Mean I agree with you that you know when you see a poll right now. That shows Biden fifty forty. You know the other ten percents gotta go somewhere. And you know probably more of that comes to trump it goes to you guys because you're bumping up against a pretty pretty good and healthy ceiling, but I'm curious kind of what where? Where you see both, is there uniformity in terms of the movement across the country and secondly kind of? Where do you see trump's floor now? Yeah, well, I do think that there's again. We you know you can talk about Joe Biden's feeling, but really when you look at it, historically all the way back to two thousand is just presidential candidates ceilings I mean there's not a lot of presidential candidates who've gotten over fifty percent. Who won right and so the fact that we're in this divided country and there are third party. Candidates who siphoned off universe. Hopefully it won't be as much as two thousand sixteen, and we don't think that it will be but the ceiling is is is almost as close to fifty or a little above for almost everyone right I mean that just kinda historically has how it's happened. Happened in the battleground states like you, you say whether it's Michigan Pennsylvania Wisconsin Florida Arizona I, mean he's having trouble getting to the mid forties right I, mean he in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania in Wisconsin in the real clear politics or the fivethirtyeight average of polls, he stood at forty, one and forty two percent now Florida in Arizona and in North Carolina or Kinda GonNa Act like Florida. And North Carolina in Arizona, they're they're always going to be tighter. Right I mean like Scott Ours no always says Florida tight and that's true now we haven't. You in a lead that's above the margin of error. That hasn't happened very often. That, you and I have done enough Florida. politics polling to know that that is a state that tends to tighten up again. I think that we have. An advantage there because of how we're doing with seniors, and we're competing David I. Mean you know it's like this campaign is going to look a lot like you to you like two thousand eight because of where we're competing? The balanced expansion. In the media markets in Florida, well, where do you WanNa? See I mean I. Remember Two thousand like it was yesterday we were. We were up on TV at high levels. Competing with McCain wear Panama City Talahassee. Jacksonville Gainesville, we were fighting the fight in the panhandle. Right and you know. I mean protect protect I four and all that type of stuff. You GotTa do well Miami Dade Palm Beach etc, but when you see a campaign competing against the Republican in the Republican areas That's what you gotTA. Do to win a place like Florida, and a lot of campaigns often have to make the cost benefit analysis, or make the bad decisions, and this campaign, because it's been under great leadership and the reason, a lot of money gives you the ability to run the race. You need to run to win, right? So I want to just ask you quickly third party because you mentioned it and you live through this horror in two thousand sixteen, where trump could win states like Wisconsin with forty seven point two percent of the vote because the third party vote share was. Higher than historical averages right now in your research and it seems to be true in public research. You're seeing that those numbers may revert more to two percent or less that we've gotten used to write, and that's huge because your ceiling is higher than trump's. I would guess at this point right and so I think that I think that this is how I look at that and you know I mean when you pull when you add third party candidates two point, they always get more on the pole than they actually do on election day right I mean. That's just kind of the dynamic, and so you know you have to. You have to test things a bunch of different ways. But I think there's one thing that we all kind of instinctively know that in two thousand sixteen. There were how a lot of voters Bernie voters etc. WHO stayed at home? WHO VOTED FOR GARY? Johnston voted for Jill Stein and ninety nine percent of them who vote did one of those three things were ninety nine percent. Sure that Hillary Clinton was going to be president, and so they were doing a protests about. those voters now know what's at stake. And they're You know their their enthusiasm. If you will to get vote or get, trump out of office is incredibly high. It's an incredibly intense, and so I think that that dynamic and quite frankly Bernie Sanders and his campaign and the Joe Biden and his campaign have worked together on a plethora of issues. will make the dynamics here much different so we don't see that bleed, and and internally we see we see that you know. Joe Biden just has better with Bernie Voters Than Hillary Clinton did in two thousand sixteen well does tighten up. That's going to be such an important dynamic. So, You mentioned You know the Biden campaign. has a very expansive electoral map again. Something we might not have expected months ago. and you know those are pretty weighty decisions. You're involved in those decisions with General. Molly Dylan and Donald other leadership in the campaign, but John when you think about the places that look now plausible. Not Win them, but you know Georgia in other poll out in Texas today publicly had Biden Upright one Ohio Iowa those are likely not going to be in. My view is two hundred seventy electoral vote, but do you think there's a scenario where you could get surprise? Where maybe you don't win in north, Carolina and Georgia, or is there really a stack ranking on these states? Well as you know, there's always a stack ranking and you were at the you know. Know Genesis in two thousand twelve of analytics right, and so there's a there's a lot of simulations things that you know you and I didn't learn about growing up in this business and there's and there's tipping points, states and things like that. I think that at the end of the day again. The leadership of this campaign is incredibly focused and disciplined, and you can see where we're buying TV. It's public and it's always you know reported on. You know we're very focused on the six battleground states, and you know until you know, they move on to another state. We will be focused on those six states in a very disciplined way, because that is the ball game I think that what's difficult for trump is that he's not only communicating in those six days. He is playing defense right now in Ohio and Iowa, so he is spending a lot of money in Ohio in Iowa. Just protecting himself he's also up in Nevada right, which I don't understand, but you know, right. Right and so she's the one that is actually expanding a lot of money. and I can't say in an undisciplined way. He is in trouble, so he has to expand his hip protected. He has to expand but right now. the Joe Biden campaign is very disciplined and very focused and you know will there be expansion states. You know there's a big map on the wall just like there is you know in two thousand, eight and twelve and sixteen, but you gotta be careful, and you have to be very analytical about doing that.