"This is this fast money. I'm Melissa Leo Traders on the Desk Tim Seymour Karen Feinerman Johnathan and guide Dommie just breaking a little while ago Oracle. CEO Mark Her taking a leave of absence due to health related reasons since the stock selling off after hours. Conference call expected within the hour. We'll keep you updated as the story develops then if you didn't know SAS. SAS stands for software off whereas service but it could soon stan for software as a source of pain down nineteen percents these scales Hong Kong stock exchange launches an aggressive thirty seven billion dollars bid for it wait for a London stock exchange. We'll get perspective from one of their biggest rivals. CME group chairman and CEO Terry Duffy joins US exclusively here here on set but I it's still on and we are talking about the great rotation so many here on this desk. I've been skeptical of maybe even Poo pooing at times the sector showing continuing strength the Russell banks retail just to name a few so what is going to make you a believer guy. It's a fascinating question. Market has an uncanny way not that I need help by the way of making me look extraordinarily silly and here we are as as we just heard within a percent suddenly all time high the S. and P. Five hundred and everything looks fantastic. When do I become a believer I. I don't know the answer that question but I'll say is the headwinds that exist in a couple of weeks ago looked really haven't gone away all that much. Yes rates have backed up a little bit. Probably a healthy move yes to go. Market is an exploding to the upside. Maybe maybe some of the concerns with the China deal situation of Hong Kong have abated but they haven't gone away. There's still there. The markets is looking pass them so I don't know how to answer that question because it concerns since I have. I don't think it get resolved in one day. Well I know how to answer the question like when the rest of believers simple when the rest of Maga- makes the new high and apple is on its way to doing that. It's about ten bucks from the all time highs last September. I'd love to see Google Amazon participate again. Those are three and a half trillion dollars. Dollars of mega cap the largest in the market the other one. You know you mentioned the Russell. I'd like to see the Russell breakout above the seven month range and really kind of get people thinking about okay well. Maybe small caps have digested a lot of the bad news in the ready to go a little bit so those are two areas. I want to focus on. I'm not so interested in seeing Alcoa rally twenty percent off. Its you know that doesn't really convey about too much yet. Karen you know I I love to buy when things are trading down into gers. I'm kind of more more inclined to sell. Some things are trading up and injures less. I talked about taking a little money off table selling by Selig's. JP Morgan calls I I why do on something like a united rental that has obviously participated to the downside heart and back to the upside hard. I still think it's attractive here name like Fedex that Tim and I talked about a lot. That's unknown news. Whatsoever is gone for line one forty nine to whatever one seventy one. I liked it higher than one seventy one so even though that one's up a lot. I'll hang onto things like that the vix today coming in a lot. I want to own volatility here because I think we are one tweet away from going back to those markets you you seem so fresh in my mind they could be any second week could be the Mcginn Tim even sort of on board the rotation since it. You pointed it out to sort of I don't WanNa say a believer Uber but you acknowledge. Its its presence here. Why don't you try to die down your gender. Your Rangers Rangers compatriot here well. He's missed. I've moved from three twenty five down to one forty five on the ten year in effectively six months. Maybe seven months was was was way way too. Excessive relative to the fundamentals in the US economy maybe not to the global economy and I continue to think that some of this rated namic was a function of buns pulling us down in a relative value trait. I think some small and this is not full. Reconciliation and Hong Kong has been important to set the tone tone for at least we're regionally. There's a little more stability going into October talks. Which I think are very important. Unfortunately I'm not sure what we're going to get out of that but then we had reaffirmation of the US S. consumer off a couple of data points and that's the ice and the services I assume which is really the backbone of our country not a manufacturing reading and so while we know the PM is going down down around the world. I think that's been part of the story. The most important from a market perspective is I think we've had these rotations many times in many cycles throughout the last last two years so it's easy to pooh-poohed at the market almost nothing but I actually think you know if if you look at where retail is retail underperform the S. and P. almost twenty percent for a year until suddenly it it makes a lot of that back up recently if you look at what's going on and transports and banks but the thing about it is that the valuations to me do make some sense and we sat around here and we talked talked about food stocks. We talked about restaurant stocks. We talked about things that really were tough to explain and I think the markets rationalization is that those things can only go so high and recession question is off the table for the next six months. That's where the central bank at your back. That's been the justification and it didn't happen three days ago. This happened three weeks ago. When when the rest of the world started rallying relative to our market. Thanks for educating us but do you think that was particularly bullish. When you're the president of the United States vote head Fed should go to lower grades two zero arowar negatively lower because to me that doesn't elicit a whole heck of a lot of confidence in this economy. Is Picking up because you saw good services number less so you're talking about psychology. Do you want one. I'm in an AP economics class again. I think we've got a case where the macro data doesn't add up to a market that should be falling off a cliff with soot and you just mentioned that the last two years the market hasn't done much because you said that you've acknowledged the fact that we've seen lots of rotation so you know the thing is here. We are three thousand the S&P eighty five hundred and we'll make a new high. Do you think we're going straight up. Do you think we're GONNA go to thirty thirty and then go straight up. Five seven eight percent not particularly weekly likely if you look at over the last two years when we made new incremental high. We've gone down a lot. I mean I don't think I don't think most of our audiences is making a call on the market out so and so I think people are investing in stocks. They are themselves rotating in and out the fact that the semi's which I think are again been an easy target of volatility and the volatility in that space has been enormous but semi's are to make another fresh high and semi's are still up almost now they make that fresh high. They'll be nine percent from June of two thousand eighteen when everyone everyone said that's it that's it. I'll take ten percent and I'll take ten percent of the time. We don't really ten percent to thirty percent drawdowns. I mean does that. Make aren't trading those drawdown. I look I understand those people another individual again. I understand statistics and I understand standard deviations and we are split up to tell me that that people should not have been investing in things that overall business you. Are you saying that because they went up a lot and they went down a lot. They were on investable during this period and I think most people aren't trading like that. What's the flip side to not believing in this rotation. What's it's the flipside to necessarily know if you don't believe that this rotation is for real. What did the market do the have. I've been training opportunities listen. I'm the first to tell you I mean I thought the market's going down for quite some time I don't hide from it but within the context of that we brought up some pretty good training opportunities we as a matter Arafat couple of weeks ago. We power pitched bank at a time when nobody likes you did if you recall that was pretty much universally th you know pooh-poohed you use that word but not me by the viewing audience and that's gone from six to one and a half. I think closes sixty nine today so within the context of being a non believer there are trading opportunities again by only the point is everything that got us down to where we were a month and a half two months ago have not gone away. It's gotten a little bit clearer but they haven't gone away and I think in a fifteen fixed accounts point. It's just too it doesn't make sense with the backdrop that that's out there right now all right well. Our next guest says the value rotation can continue and new highs are coming with it. Let's bringing Margaret Kalonovik global head of quantitative and derivatives strategy at J.P Morgan market's always great to see you so you have a bunch of skeptics on the dust in terms of this rotation so so what has to answer guys original question what has changed to make you believe that this value rotation is here. We'll first positioning is extremely low so if you look at the sort of hedge from equity exposure it's about zero percentile so close to all time lows match in two thousand eight. If you look at the individual investors a I will be our sentiment is basically similar to two two thousand eight so a lot of these early price in the market right like and positioning is very low then generally. There's upside. That's pure mechanics. This is not even a economics one to one so so so so that's that's something that we can sort of hold onto low positioning and then you had some positive things within mentioned already. You know so you have a services in us. You had a little bit on Brexit a little bit on a little bit on Hong Kong Essay are and then you had this October negotiations so if we we have like two to three weeks before October where we still have a buyback full force when the Biggs declined from twenty two to fourteen fifteen so all the sort of systematic folks who actually really ever and you have discretion investor who's basically zeroed invested in the market so that's what we think you can continue now why valutation can continue so people adds to market the first thing they will close the short while net positioning get zero percent but the gross positioning gross exposure according to JP Morgan prime is ninety nine percent out so you have like a massive longshore trade where people are super long low vault of quality momentum and growth and they're super short value so if they want to increase the increase the net exporter. I don't think they're going to triple quadruple on software and stuff like that. They'll close some of the energy oil than gas some of the some of the banks and other value stuff so we think that this can continue okay so it can continue in our view until October in October. Basically you have negotiations anything. Anything can happen right so if the negotiations blow up we go back. Even negotiations actually produce some results. I think this loss for a full year like in two thousand sixteen and Seventeen when when it lost more than eighteen months so that's very strategic trade so strategic is until October right and in October. I think we need to reassess. If there is actually progress towards its radio this can can be new two thousand seventeen eighty two thousand two thousand sixteen age seventy two kinloss another eighteen months if the if we have more of the same back you know back and forth tweeting and stuff like that then we go back to software guy thinks will when when you say we go back if there are stumbling blocks oxen trade does that mean that we re-test the ten year yield lows like legal retail would have on"