"We begin today with the word a word we were hearing a lot of say five maybe six months ago now not so much recession. The recession warning signals economy goes into a recession the recession back in August when recession prognostications these were all the rage. We Got Neil Irwin from the New York Times on the phone to Chat Sunia. Listen let me let me start with a question that I get all the time. I'm sure you do too. When's when's the recession going to start? Maybe never maybe Maybe maybe we already in one. That's the thing about recessions you you don't know in real time with any great certainty that intercession so that was August. We called Neil back this morning with recession prognostications now very much faded to ask what's changed so the biggest. I single trigger to that. Entire flurry of recession fears was what's called an inverted yield curve. We've talked about this before you and the idea that longer term bond yields interest rates had had fallen below short-term interest rates that's called an inverted yield curve in the important thing. Is it for a lot of economy watchers. A lot of them by which I mean almost just all of them in a yield curve inversion means a recession is common eventually to that side of one item to reminded us this morning was the actual economic doc news back then we had a global manufacturing slowdown. We had the trade wars escalating we had brexit hanging over everything. And so you had this world where it looked like the world economy might be slipping slipping into recession and that seemed to be what financial markets were signaling hence recession that word now though not August but November so it looks like we dodged a bullet. Well it looks like that did not materialize do not seem to be in recession the US economy seems to be growing at a nice steady rate. Yes sure there are some problems in the factory sector in the. US really did enter contraction. It may still be there. But manufacturing's a small piece of the overall economy only about twelve percent of total employment. So if we focus too much on what's happening in manufacturing and don't realize that you know the service economy is chugging along pretty well also chugging along the American labor market job growth is mostly steady consumers. Rumors are still spending. Oh yeah a guy by the name of j Powell and his merry band at the Federal Reserve. I do think it's an interaction between monetary monetary policy and trade policy. That's terrorists in Clare. She's at George Washington University There's this sense that With lower interest rates rates from the Fed there might be more room for the economy to accommodate that trade policy and a trade war and the economic stresses presses. The trade war has brought to be fair. There is news a trade deal could be on the rise in. Maybe I don't mean to be funded out it but it is true that I haven't checked twitter in the last five minutes and therefore I might not know what's going to happen next with trade policy which is fair recessions not the word of the economic moment anymore because the economy is chugging chugging along just not as fast as it had been terracing Claire One more time the numbers that we're seeing they do look like a slowdown that is not bad. News in the cyclical sentence. Like this isn't suggesting that we're seeing a clear. Recession so those are the recession indicators. That have changed the past six months. The context if you will and that's all well and good save for this fact it's people who make this economy go round people and businesses who have to figure out what what decisions they are gonNa make based on what the indicators are marketplace's Mitchell Hartman checked in with some business owners and consumers that he's been keeping up with lately to see what their personal recession gauges ages are telling them right. Now here's an economic signal that doesn't sound anything like a recession is upon us or coming soon. New Construction Randy Delo is a small business owner from Bend Oregon and when he travels for his company selling scientific instruments he hears the same thing almost every city. I go you see cranes and building and neighborhoods popping up all over overall. The economy. I think is holding fairly steady. dellwo is worried about the ongoing going trade war. When I spoke to him back in August he was losing export sales because of Chinese tariffs? I called him today with news of possible progress us. And we've seen this pattern for some time where there's They're supposedly progress on the trade war and then nothing happens or maybe it escalates. Were trying to grow. But it's I difficult to do with these headwinds of losing a portion of your sales. Tim Reynolds runs in Ohio software company that serves manufacturing customers. We're I'm having a good year. Not Quite as good as last year but even with signs of manufacturing slowdown nationwide. He's not worried what is slowing down. News portrayed in catastrophic terms when to slowdown in growth not necessarily a recession consumers have been getting a little more positive about the the Economy Sam Lundberg and his wife or government workers in New Mexico and when I talked to him last spring he was feeling nervous lately. Though I've had a couple of minor pay bums we're starting to buy furniture starting to talk to a real chore. Look at houses feeling. Okay about dropping money here and there for something. We're going to be able to hold onto. Of course the economy economy could still fall apart and deliver up a recession next year. Just saying it's the future full of unknown unknowns. I'm Mitchell Hartman for"