SEC, Georgia, Alabama discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show

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Can you were about to be joined by Seth Walder from ESPN stats and information. Sheth always good to catch up with. You. Try to figure out where we are as we head toward the fourth week of the college football season things star to move around, things start to change, and especially the position that the SEC is in right now, look at Alabama in a command. Physician, so Georgia and Mississippi State down there creeping up at eight percent. Couple of wins more in how will that change. St Paul, how are you? We're doing great. We'll think that up. Yeah, great. This'll this state. I mean, I think they're, you know, certainly they're not a main playoff contender, but they are a dark horse candidate here. Now, I do think that what's interesting this week is that Mississippi State comes in there making that leaderboard, but LSU doesn't despite the fact that LSU leads the nation in strength of record. The difference here is they gotta play Georgia, even though Mississippi State goes to goes to Baton Rouge. The fact that LSU has to play Georgia just makes it so much more difficult for them to compete. Of course, Alabama, Georgia, number one and two in the country into the best chance to make the playoffs. Yeah, we, we know what to rank east state is we said, let's get inside those numbers and tell us what you lean from that. Other than the obvious that these two. They're the best to in the country. Well, I think the thing that's interesting is that you the situation to get both of them in is just looking more and more increasingly likely each week. So we're not talking about forty nine percent chance for the SEC to get to teams in the playoffs. I think we talked about this a little bit last week, but Paul, if Alabama and Georgia are both undefeated and they reached the SEC championship game face each other, the loser of that game has an eighty three percent chance to make it to the playoff the loser, which is honestly just stunning. But I guess when you think about it, sort of makes sense. The only thing that could really keep them out of that point would be for power, five, one loss champions maybe an undefeated, Notre Dame. I mean, I don't know Paul, you know the SEC better than anyone is that we too high on the SEC this point or is this feel right? I think I mean, listen for now it feels right, but but here's why it feels right. We haven't quite gotten into the cannibalisation part of. The schedule, and you know what I'm talking about there were you have all these all these schools playing one another. Let me put the SEC on pause for just a second, though. Seth, the numbers on the border, not good for the big ten now for house state, maybe, but help us understand that league which has taken a beating in three weeks. Yeah, I was surprised to see the big ten still having an eighty four percent chance to make the playoffs. And then when you kind of look at it, the two teams of the best shot from that conference to make the playoff both won last week, Penn State, no Hieaux state. They're playing each other. Obviously in two weeks. The winner of that game is going to be in a really good spot to to play off. And the other thing is that unlike the ACC which is basically entirely reliant on Clemson, at least for the big ten, it's got multiple outs, the loser of that game. It's still theoretically possible for them to make the playoff, whereas Clemson ends up bombing out of the playoff race ACC's just in trouble. Yeah, and they're not the only ones in trouble. The narrative is pretty negative toward the Pac twelve. I wonder if that's not a little premature though Stanford with a huge game this week against Oregon, but they do play Notre Dame. They have a lot of pretty games on the schedule. What's what's the Pac twelve look like? The thing that had with Stanford, they actually dropped in our chance to make the playoff even after a win. But that's because they only UC Davis by twenty points. And this is all about expectation..

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