Federal Reserve, Holtz Wealth Management, Danielle Dimartino Booth discussed on Bloomberg Markets


In business, podcast. I think it's probably the most popular podcast coming out of the Bloomberg complex. He's also chairman and chief investment officer at holtz wealth management. Barry, we had our Federal Reserve crystal clear yesterday in their attention about where rates are going. We wake this morning to see banks around the world kind of following suit, what do you make of this rate environment? What do you make of this economy here? Again, the Federal Reserve said, if you weren't paying attention to Jackson hole, you better be paying attention now. Yeah. You had to say very least. I think the first time they went 75 basis points, they got everybody's attention. But, you know, here is the needle they're trying to thread. Most of what we see in terms of inflation and especially on the goods side are all pandemic lockdown reopening supply chain snafus, which normally just are not responsive to interest rates. That's not what drives those problems. And so the fed says, hey, if you're not going to respond to interest rates, well then how are you going to respond to a recession? And that seems to be the plan to reduce demand so much that they cause enough of an economic contraction to end inflation. I think it reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of what drives inflation, but I've disagreed with the fed. They are a permanent part of the investment world. And rather than just tilt it, the windmill, you have to incorporate them into your approach. Dude, do you know what Danielle dimartino booth told us yesterday? And she repeated it again this morning was that Jay Powell has an ulterior motive. It's not just about inflation, he wants the break the back of the fed put. This market expectation that every time there's a problem, the fed is going to come to the stock market's rescue. I don't know, I thought when in 2008 and 9, the market fell 57%, that kind of was the end of the fed Porter or was it a technology in quantitative easing? Yeah, and the technology stocks falling 81% peak to trough in 2000. You know, George Collin used to do a routine about Indian fighters and said, it's not that they're bad fighters, just because they started off defending Boston and ended up in Santa Monica. And that's kind of how I feel about the fed put. It's a great put as long as you don't mind the occasional 56 or 80% crash. It doesn't seem like much of a put to me. And I've always thought Danielle isn't running money. So this isn't directed at her, but I always thought the fed put was a fantastic excuse from underperforming managers to explain. We would have had a great year if it wasn't for that damn Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve. So what do you think, how do you think these markets are going to play out from here? I mean, are we just going to tread water, trend it down, grind, lower until we get a sense of, all right, this is the recession. This is the bottom, the next move is up. A gun lock said we're going to go down 20% in equities if we get to four and a half percent. Yesterday, Powell said 4.6% is likely and kind of hinted that he's headed towards 5. So here's really the question and, you know, most institutions that rely on forecasts don't do an especially good job and the Federal Reserve is now exception. They failed to recognize when they should have moved off an emergency footing. They were late to recognize inflation, and they're probably going to be late to recognize when they've done enough to stop inflation. So the question is, are they going to make a policy error? Will it be a small error? Will it be a large error? And really, the data that's going to come out and I know we're all sick to death at the term data dependent. The data over the next couple of months are going to determine, are they going to over tighten or are they going to wildly over Titan? Keep in mind by many measures, the fed has been too accommodative for too long. But it didn't matter when we were in a deflationary regime. And now we are in maybe transitory has become a dirty word. We are in a temporary multiyear inflationary regime and what comes next is going to really be dependent on how high they take rates. You know, we were talking to Greg Hahn earlier from winthrop capital management and he was talking about valuations, right? Because we're all looking to see what earnings are going to turn out to be in 2022, 2023 with margin compression and inflation is a problem blah, blah, but the point is the stock market puts a valuation on those earnings that we're expecting. And the valuation has been, I guess, historically high for years. He said, we haven't been undervalued in 15 years. What do you think is the right valuation? So, you know, I think that valuation is thought of almost like a snapshot and you really have to consider it more in terms of a video of a moving picture. In the beginning of secular bull markets, like the one that began in 1982, or the one that began in 2013, stocks tend to be kind of cheap. They tend to be somewhat unloved. And at the end of a bull market, stocks get pretty pricey and are overloved. And 82 to 2000 is my favorite example. The bulk of the gains came not because profits improved, but because earnings multiple expanded from 7 X in the beginning to 32 X at the end, 75% of the gains in that bull market were due not to earnings, but to those multiple expansions. And so if you're trying to pick what is the right PE, PEs are always wrong except for that brief moment, either as markets are running up or as they're coming down when markets value, but it's an instant increasing valuations are because of increasing investor sentiment, more money around, improving revenue and profits, and decreasing valuation is when the opposite happens. So fair value is the wrong way to look at equities. It's where are we in that cycle of improving investor sentiment and expanding multiples or worsening sentiment and contracting multiples? Barrier podcast masters and business who's coming up next. I have an amazing guess this weekend. Steve

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