Nato, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin discussed on Monocle 24: The Briefing


NATO for that matter has a whole lot of stomach right now for boots on the ground, a big fight over Ukraine, even if Ukraine, perhaps may like the attention and may like the idea that being sort of a pawn in between gives them an opportunity to get foreign direct investment to get military help all those kinds of things. Well, to that point, then flow in. Aside from this current military buildup we have the key issue clearly for Russia at least is also just NATO's involvement in the Ukraine, whether Ukraine would believe even a majority of the public would like to join NATO, is that a valid concern here? Do you think for Vladimir Putin? I mean, historically, I think it's been a very long, it's been a very long story. Vladimir Putin and, you know, actually Russia as a whole has always feared the expansion of NATO, and there were promises made or broken depending on which side you listened to. About the extensions towards the east. I think at the moment, at least I can not see how the Ukraine could come anywhere close to joining NATO. There is even a territorial dispute that currently ongoing. So I think there is no real, there is no real chance I think of that happening. But again, in a sense, it's just, I think Vladimir Putin, trying to figure out, I also don't think there is a larger strategy behind this. I think it's kind of poking. It's poking here and there, trying to figure out how much attention can I get? How much relevant can I stay? And speaking to your point Robert, the end of oil and gas as well. I think the only real token of negotiation that the Biden administration apparently discussed with Germany as well is north stream two. If that pipeline is really suspended, I think that's the only thing that is really in that in that thing going to hurt Russia and Vladimir Putin. You look at these economic consequences. Biden has basically said, is the sanctions of any would be quite stinging? One of them would have to be Nordstrom too. Of course, it's not that easy. Germany is really going through the world's history's largest re-engineering project from the combustion, the internal combustion engine and coal. If you look at the German economy, it's the next few years are going to be pretty tough. So the idea that you don't have cheap natural gas coming in or cheap ish natural gas as a transition energy source, that could be a huge problem. But that said, you have a new government there that has the greens if I'm not the greens are part of the sort of whatever they call it the stoplight coalition. They have the new economy and climate ministry. So that will be powerful. So you know, there is so there's probably it's probably more likely that that could be a bargaining chip than it was under the merkle era. There is a lot to lose here, plus the convertibility of the ruble and the dollars that seems to be on the table, and the usual. Billionaire can't come and visit their homes in Hawaii and the upper east side. There was occasional options. And just quickly to end. Rob mentioned the European Union as well. What is your take on that? It seems like Vladimir Putin almost went over the EU's head to go directly to Joe Biden. Do they have a role? Does a Germany, as we talked about, but also of France, other countries have a role in this stuff. I think they have a very important role but kind of second row, right? Whatever real threat Biden can issue, perhaps beyond convertibility of dollars in rubles is contingent on what the European Union does and convention on whether friends and Germany say yes to it in a sense. But you're right in pointing out that the fact that I think the European Union has no common military has no military power really puts it in the second row, even in these conflicts that are really at their doorstep. And that is something that within the European Union has been brought up again and again, time and again by the French mainly. Now that the UK is no longer part of the EU, perhaps it's going to be somewhat easier, but military capabilities are certainly lower. So I think that's the debate that's going to come again and again and again unless it's being resolved eventually. Robin Florian, thank you very much for joining us. That was rob Cox from Reuters and Florian egle from the think tank for us. You are with the briefing on monocle 24. Now.

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