Lamar, Lamar Jackson, Ravens discussed on Bet The Board
So many different wagering options to try and get you into the game as early as this evening. Baltimore Ravens 7 and a half point road favorites against your beloved Miami Dolphins this evening a FanDuel sports book total on this game sits at 46 and a half. When you look at the most recent meetings between these two teams, they haven't been pretty by any stretch of the imagination, the ravens have absolutely housed. Miami on multiple occasions. And this will be the first meeting since Lamar Jackson through for 300 plus yards and 5 touchdowns back week one in 2019. When you look at Lamar 17 and four in his career on the road, the second best road winning percentage of any player with ten or more starts, only Jimmy Garoppolo is better over that stretch at 12 and two. It is, of course, also a homecoming of sorts for Lamar Jackson who grew up in the South Florida area. If you're the Miami Dolphins and you're trying to figure out a way to scheme up an offensive or defensive game plan against this ravens team, how are you trying to go about approaching slowing down Lamar and what the ravens can do with a healthy receiving core that'll be boosted by the return of Sammy Watkins as well? Ultimately, it comes down to what Brian Flores decides to do schematically, right? I mean, he runs a defense that has been built to play man in blitz. There's a reason you pay, saving Howard and Byron Jones the money you do when you spend draft capital on Jay von Holland early in the second round. And he's been fantastic. Over the years, it's been said that you can't play man against mobile quarterbacks. You know, you can't have your secondary turning its back in coverage against mobile quarterbacks. It's pretty much true. The odd part here is this Lamar has been substantially better throwing the ball against zone than man this year. Large, large splits. So you kind of just wonder what floor is going to do? He's playing a little more zone earlier in the year. And then they got back to their man principles and they've shown well the last two weeks, obviously, the Texans not the stiffest test, but tie rod was there and the performance at buffalo, the first three and a half quarters was fantastic. The dolphins loved the bullets from their main concepts, 36% blitz rate second highest in the NFL. Lamar has more interceptions than touchdowns against the blitz this year. The dolphins do have some pieces in the secondary. If they want to play with 5 defensive backs, which we've seen works well against this run offense because you can have more speed on the field doesn't allow Lamar to hit the explosive as well. It doesn't allow me to get to the outside as easy. So you can have 5 defensive backs on the field. The guy like Brandon Jones or row can play more of that linebacker role with baker. Baltimore's offense is tough to figure out right now. We know the old line isn't what it once was. It looks like Patrick Mark Howie is out again. The running back room leaves a lot to be desired. But somehow when you look at the metrics, Baltimore's 8th and run block win rates second in Russia efficiency and 5th and EPA per rush. A lot of that obviously is some unscripted runs from Lamar. But it was interesting to kind of see now that we're in week ten that the run game isn't as bad as it appears visually and obviously it's not as good as it's been in years past. But that's kind of the adaption defenses have made in Lamar's grown as a passer. To negate some of what's been lost on the ground. This really hasn't been easy for Baltimore, if you kind of just look at the entire season. You look into 6 and two, 7 and a half point favorite this week. We're just rolling. But they've got a battled their way to this market. It hasn't look pretty at time. There's issues with this team and they've played a below average schedule as well. So I'm not quite sure what to make of the ravens. I can tell you at 6 and a half, there were some guys that did grab Baltimore in this spot. My number, if it were tua, certainly doesn't get me to 7 and a half. So that's the interesting debate here is the matchups don't necessarily bode the best for Miami, but we always talk about price as well. What's interesting too when you look at this ravens team is that they've struggled early on in games. They're averaging just to shade more than two points per game in the first quarter, third fewest in the NFL. And it appears it takes Lamar Jackson a little bit to get his bearings as a passer. You wonder if Miami can try and benefit from some of that but to your point talking about how it's kind of been Baltimore operating in fits and spurts. At some point, the depleted depth in the backfield and no true game breaker, if I'm an opposing defensive coordinator, I'm going to be honest. I don't really worry that much about latavius Murray who's been hurt. I don't worry about devonta Freeman and Levi and bell, being able to take the ball to the house the same way I would with the gospel or JK dobbins. So you think they want to key in on the Marc Jackson on some level. You talked about tua all week, the dolphins have been pretty coy do we think it's gonna be a game time decision in terms of when we know who Miami will elect with elect to go with under center? The line says Jacoby Brissette, otherwise you're looking at something in the 5 and a half 6 range. Obviously, he's got a fracture on his throwing hand..