Consumer Confidence Rising After Deep Plunge In April


Learned this morning from the good people at the Conference Board Business Research Group. We learned that consumer confidence in this economy is up of this month after tanking in April the reaction to that good news because it is good news prompted this reaction from White House economic adviser Larry cudlow on Fox News. This morning. The third quarter could be the fastest growing quarter in. Us history. The whole second half is going to be very strong and here comes the reality check on their reaction to that good news first of all let us remember. We are in the second quarter right now. April may June where the percentage decline in Gross Domestic Product is expected to be epic worst ever retail sales. Were down last month. The unemployment rate is upward. Hasn't been since the Great Depression and they're still. Oh so much uncertainty about what's going to happen next now. Why am I saying? This economists. Megan Green a senior fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School helps us out with that. For example if you say An economy is running at a level of ten. It's producing ten things. Let's say and there's a fifty percent decline then that brings it down to five okay but then and let's say the next month. Actually things go really well. And you've got a fifty percent increase. Sounds great right. It's from a lower numbers so that doesn't bring you back up to ten at actually only brings you back up to seven point five. So the percentage changes can be really misleading. Mr Kudlow this morning it has to be pointed out and as you said is talking about Q. Three July August and September. So I think that as the economy opens up we should see the economic data improve and depending on how you're looking at that data it will either improve a little or it will improve a lot for instance. The Congressional Budget Office figures. There will be a better than five percent increase. Gdp growth in that third quarter. Mr Kudlow was talking about but to review a lot of that. Depends on what you're comparing it to now. Why are we telling you this? I realized that's the second time we've asked this. But this matters that third quarter. Gdp number is going to come out just five days before the election. I think the Republicans will come out and say look we've got the best GDP data ever And we've got the best job state at ever looking at percentage changes in. They'll be right actually. Technically that's true but at the same time the Democrats will be saying we'll but we're still really far below. We were before this crisis even started. And there's a lot of room for improvement and they'll also be right and show. I think people will be getting these mixed messages on what the state of the economy is in. Actually both of them will be correct. You just need to learn how to read the data at understand what it all means

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