Has the Pandemic Changed You?
We don't really know what's going to happen with the economy with financial markets with monetary policy with the pandemic. The world is a constant series of endless surprises. Both good and bad and then as things happen that we and others don't anticipate we emotionally react to them and often overreact. Those surprises we become fearful in greedy asset bubbles conform well other acid categories. That might get too cheap. This pandemic the coronavirus pandemic has been a major shock to me and I think to most people. We certainly didn't anticipate it. And now we're coping with a dramatically different world in previous episodes. I've discussed the economic monetary and investment impact of the pandemic and its aftermath in this episode. I want to focus on how this change has impacted US personally. I see three patterns that are emerging two of which I've discussed in an earlier episode of the podcast episode one ninety seven the power of less and local these three emerging patterns are less local and leap less the principal. I've discussed a lot the same. Nicholas tile up in his book skin in the game talked about a principle called via negative. He wrote that. Knowledge grows by subtraction by identifying things. That aren't working. And removing those things he says the act of removing is powerful and less error prone then acting by addition as we've been isolated lockdown in our homes. It's given us time to think about the things that we have and do. We really need them. I'll give you a simple example this past Friday the prelude I my daughter. My daughter-in-law and my son drove three cars for seventeen hours straight through FROM PHOENIX TO IDAHO. And once we arrived here the pro. I went up to our cabinet. Open it up because we're going to spend most of the summer here in Teton Valley. We have a bit of a mice problem at this cabin. There were mice droppings everywhere. We had to clean them up. My approach to combat adding mice is to put out bait boxes with Barbie poison. I spoke to the previous owners about this. And they said they didn't have any problem with mice although they lived here full time and maybe they had a cat but my approach this time is. I took all the boxes away because for one thing when mice would come in and start eating it would wake me up and so I figured just them all out. Don't attract mice by giving them something to eat and then we'll see what happens now. This is a simple example. Simple experiment to see how it works out. But I suspect there's other things that you're doing less of gyms have been closed for most of this time. I bought a kettle bell and have been using that for strength training. So I'm canceling my gym membership. A new listener wrote me. The other day said he couldn't go to the gym so he discovered podcasting and discovered my podcast. We're travelling less. Airline travel is down ninety percent from a year ago. There was an article recently in the Wall Street. Journal talked about how air travel is going to change less direct flights slower boarding process as they board from the rear. First temperature checks before you get on the plane. Perhaps immunity passports everyone wearing mask not going to be as much fun to travel by. Plane Anymore. What are you doing less of are considering doing less of perhaps less going out less business less travel most people are doing less their subtracting things from their lives and it can be powerful. We can give us a sense of relief when we remove something from our life. Now it means we need to be strategic when we add something. We can't just extract ourselves from the economy but we can be strategic in our purchases which brings us to the second emerging pattern of local. Many many people have started working remotely and have loved it. I've had two friends that mentioned to me recently that they never want to have to go back to the office again. One of the outstanding questions is how permanent will this be? And the potential impact on commercial real estate commercial real estate prices were down ten percent year over year in April. We've seen this tram go back and forth. There was a phase where remote work was very much in fashion. And then the CEO's wanted to bring the workers back so they could all collaborate. So I don't see all companies doing this but I certainly do believe you'll see much more remote work because you can be more productive. I have worked remotely for almost twenty years now and you can be highly productive. Other aspects of local supply. Chains have been severely disrupted by this pandemic companies realized that maybe such an extensive global supply chain has some weaknesses. Will we see more? Local domestic manufacturing you're seeing modes of transportation be more local. New York Times reported in March nationwide sales of bicycles equipment and repair services almost doubled from the past year. A lot of people don't want to commute on the subway anymore or the buses and so they want to commute by bicycle. See how that goes when winter comes. These are local trans. The pro and I are going to do much more local travel. We are purchasing a camper conversion. This is a two thousand. Chevy suburban converted into a camper with solar panels. Abedin back no kitchen. But we'll be doing a lot more distributed camping on bureau of Land Management and National Forest Land in Idaho Wyoming and Montana more local with bet your local pattern for shopping. How has that changed? We've done a lot more curbside. Pickup of groceries takes more planning. It can be a little more frustrating. We busted on instant card that can be frustrating to the other day at the grocery store. We ordered two pounds of bananas and two Carrots and we got two bananas and two pounds of Carrots with institute. We Wanted Rama noodles. They didn't have any says. They substituted two huge bags of cheese and CARAMEL. Popcorn mixed together. How you interact locally with WHO? This is one of the biggest changes that I see. We can't be locked down in our homes forever. We're going to have choose to interact. If you have kids they want to interact and so deciding how. And what type of social distancing any social distancing will you use will be critical? We're going to have to kind of navigate this new culture until there's a vaccine if we get a vaccine. I was somewhat surprised as we drove those many miles from Phoenix to Idaho. How FEW PEOPLE? We saw wearing masks and how many people we saw gathering together strangers at restaurants or stores. It's almost as if people think government says the economy's open so we're back Enormou- now maybe the pandemic will just go away. But that doesn't appear to be with. The science suggests the infection rate was very high before the economic shutdown and now the curve has been flattened but everything. I've seen suggests the coronavirus has not gone away bowl. See and we have to figure out how are we going to navigate our social interactions locally