Lilly antibody drug fails in a COVID-19 study; others go on
In the vaccine rays come into focus a minute slew of farmer earnings this week the healthcare sector as much at stake in the US election. I'm facing immediate policy scrutiny in a potential blue sweep. The first batch of former earnings showed largely makes result amid the virus, with Eli Lilly tumbling after flagging a $400 million expands related to covet research and development. CEO Daybreak so glum back. He expects key data on the vaccine front soon. In our business. We need data. I don't think it makes sense to guess which would would be the most effective. The good news is we'll know that and we'll know that pretty soon. The early ones. As you pointed out of the Marine A Ah new technology that's never produced a human vaccine before, but looks pretty promising in terms of the ability to generate our own antibody response, and that's a good sign. I think for defeating the virus or preventing infection spread. We don't know how long that will last. There's other approaches that have produced vaccines. Modified virus, taking different viruses and mounting elements of the covert virus on them, And those are more proven. They're a little harder to scale, but they also may produce a good response. Mostly, I'm confident because we have so many shots on goal really unprecedented number so quickly. Yeah, So I think science a win. In the end. It's just hard to pick the winner at this point in the horse race, John That's a hockey phrase there. That's not a soccer phrase because there's so fresh. So did soccer. That's a hockey Fraser from is. You don't know what Dave men I'm just going to interpret it as a soccer phrase. It still makes me think you mentioned the word. Scale scale and I want to return to antibody therapies and Please help me understand how difficult it is to scale something cup quickly. In large amounts a Sunni to get the green light. It's difficult because it's so difficult. We actually started commercial manufacturing in the first week in July, so we had to basically aimed at a target that hadn't arrived at its point yet we didn't know the dose. We didn't know whether the drug could work We didn't know in which setting it would work. And today or yesterday we announced Ah, study we'd been conducting with the N H. We're going pause because it's in a later stage of the disease. Probably these antibodies won't be as effective. Where is an early stage of disease looks highly effective, So we already started that process. It's about four months from beginning to end Best case to start manufacturing and have output. And then on top of all that the global infrastructure to make monoclonal antibodies, which is some of the most complicated and expensive type of medicines to make is limited. We've harnessed actually five different sites within our network, collaborating with Anjin and working with a large contract manufacturer owned by Samsung, actually in Korea. To sequester a significant amount of volume. Even then, we know it won't be enough for all the needs based on the current infection rates, so we need to work on lower doses and then concentrating these important therapy's where they can make the biggest impact for us right now. We think that's high risk patients right Is there diagnosed? There's also a question of profitability and your latest earnings report which just came out and said that you expect to spend $400 million On Cove in therapy is exploring what could potentially work and there's natural cap to whatever you can charge for these remedies because there is a public health need and benefit right now. How profitable can these therapies actually be based on the human interest here? So today we announced her knees. That's a good point it so I'm on which showed another solid quarter. We grew revenue and profit amidst this pandemic or in and well, I think it shows the resilience of a company like ours. A CZ. We think about pricing and access. Our first priority is that patients pay nothing. We know that if there's a out of pocket costs that economics will start to differentiate who gets the drug and we think that health status should be the only factor considered, so we're working with governments to procure and sell our medicines and distribute within their markets. In terms of pricing. What we're thinking about carefully is is to shoot, create a price that immediately creates value, not just for us, but for the system, meaning it saves money. Direct costs very quickly, and we've demonstrated we can reduce hospitalization risk in high risk patients between 17 80% in the U. S. A hospitalization state for covert is about $22,000 per person. So there's ample room to share that value, assuming the drug is approved, So we're working on the exact price. It won't be as profitable as other products. Certainly, we expect of a modest return for shareholders based on our modeling today.