How Long Does It Stay on Surfaces? How Long Can We Rely On Amazon Delivery?
From the weekend. Our young ace symptomatic cases the key to spreading the virus. Should we rethink the conventional wisdom around facemasks? How long can the virus stay on surfaces? And how long can we rely on Amazon delivery? As of last night known cases of Corona virus in the United States exceeded thirty five hundred spread across forty nine states prompting the mass cancellation of and the reordering of American public life the CDC is recommending halting gatherings of fifty people or more throughout the US for the next eight weeks if implemented fully that means all sporting events all concerts all conferences. All parades all weddings. Almost everything done for eight weeks. Bars and restaurants are closed in New York City beginning tomorrow. Tuesday at nine. Am takeout and delivery orders? Only New York City schools have closed. Ohio has suggested schools might remain closed in that state for the remainder of the academic year but Ohio Massachusetts and Illinois have gone the France route as well. All bars and restaurants are shutting down statewide quote. Delay means more people will die Ohio governor. Mike DeWine said these states are the first states to take the steps toward Italy toward a complete shutdown of public activities except for food medicine and other essentials it is unlikely they will be the last the CEO of universal music group Lucian Grange. Perhaps the most powerful man in the music business has been hospitalized after testing positive for Cova nineteen apple CEO. Tim Cook and Apple Services. Chief Ed Eq- attended granges sixtieth birthday party. Two weeks ago in shocking news. But I guess we can't be shocked anymore by anything as it's all probably going to close down. Mgm Is Shutting the following Las Vegas Properties beginning March Seventeenth Aria Bellagio excalibur. Look zoar Mandalay Bay. Mgm Grand Mirage New York New York Park Mgm and Videira. So that's basically the entire Vegas Strip. Other companies closing stores or reducing hours Nike Worby Parker all birds urban outfitters Apple Patagonia and Glossy Walmart is partially shutting down twenty four hour locations which will operate six. Am until eleven pm until further notice starbucks is moving to what it is calling to go only model. You can still walk up an order at the starbucks counter or via drive thru or delivery. But you can't stay and sit in the cafe or Patio Areas French luxury company. Lvmh said figuring it's cosmetics division to only produce mass quantities of Hydro Alcoholic Gel in order to give it to French health authorities. More people have now died from the corona virus outside of China than have died inside China since the disease. I emerged airline Cathay. Pacific is adding flights from US cities and London to Hong Kong because since the disease seems to be relatively under control in Hong Kong at the moment some people are seeing Hong Kong as a safe haven and are rushing to travel there a mere seven weeks ago. Hong Kong had implemented travel restrictions because of its proximity to mainland China. Italy reported three hundred sixty eight deaths in a single day yesterday. A twenty five percent increase making this the deadliest twenty four hour period thus far worse than the deadliest day in Wuhan's outbreak. Italy has reported two hundred deaths for each of the last three days. Italy only had its first. Colonel Related Death three weeks ago now. More than eighteen hundred people have died because of overloaded hospitals. The fatality rate and Lamberti is nine percent in the rest of Italy. The fatality rate is five point one percent Spanish health authorities reported two thousand New Corona virus cases in twenty four hours on Sunday bringing the total in the country of Spain to eight thousand cases with two hundred eighty eight deaths as the number of people who have died of the virus more than doubled in twenty four hours as the Spanish death. Toll was up from one hundred thirty six a day earlier. That is an increase of almost one hundred percent. Spain is clearly on. The Italian trajectory is France. Next it certainly seems to be going that way quoting the New York Times. France announced the closing of all non indispensable businesses including restaurants bars and movie theaters after a sharp uptick in corona virus cases. The number of French cases past five thousand four hundred twenty on Sunday with one hundred and twenty seven deaths on Saturday. Three hundred corona virus patients were in critical condition half of them under sixty years of age on Sunday. Francis Transportation Minister said the country would begin reducing plane train and bus services between cities and quote. I'd like to end the segment with some potentially good news from Italy Adrenal Aguzzi. A professor of neuro pathology and Switzerland just north of the troubled Italian region of Lombardy tweeted a chart this weekend that showed that even with the surge in deaths in Italy over the last few days the death rate is deviating ever so slightly from exponential growth. It's early days. But the lockdown might be beginning to work linked to the chart. I'm referencing in the show. Notes and Chen He wa. The European Bureau chief for China Daily tweeted this quote. Just read that Chinese medical team sent to Italy to fight Kovic nineteen comprises mostly experienced doctors from Sichuan Sichuan folks still remember how an Italian rescue team during the devastating. Two Thousand Eight Wenchuan earthquake saved many lives. The world needs more of US helping each other and quote. There has been a lot of justified. I think hand-wringing about the scenes of people going to bars and restaurants even to Disney world. This weekend seemingly unworried about anything that is going on. This is obviously a problem for one. Big reason potential transmission from people who might not know they already have the disease indeed. There is increasing evidence that it is young people people without symptoms that might be the key driver of the spread of Corona Virus. Even more so than we realized quoting. Cnn New Studies in several countries and a large corona virus outbreak in Massachusetts Bring into question reassuring assertions by US officials about the way the novel virus spreads it appears that a Massachusetts Corona virus cluster. With at least eighty two cases was started by people who are not yet showing symptoms and more than a half dozen studies have shown that people without symptoms are causing substantial amounts of infection several experts interviewed by CNN. Said while it's unclear. Exactly what percentage of the transmission in the outbreak is fueled by people who are obviously sick versus those who have no symptoms or very mild symptoms? It is becoming clear that transmission by people who are as symptomatic or mildly symptomatic is responsible for more transmission than previously thought and quote. Indeed scientists seem to be coming to the conclusion that this is what makes corona virus so insidious it can spread far before it even sickens both mergers and SARS tend to be only spread by symptomatic people. But if you get cova did you might have spread it to fifty other people before you even know it. Add to that what we've previously discussed about how scientists suspect that you're more contagious earlier. On in the disease in a study of twenty four passengers who had just flown from Israel seven tested positive for corona virus of which four had no symptoms and the viral load of specimens from a symptomatic patients was higher than from the three patients. Who had symptoms thus the global move toward social distancing? Stay home stay out of large crowds status small crowds. There's a link to chart in the show notes that shows the difference between two towns in Italy. The two are Bergamo and loyalty. Loyalty actually had the first cove in nineteen case reported before Bergamo reported. Its first but Loki. Shut down their town February. Twenty Third Burgum. Oh waited until almost a week later by March thirteenth lucky only had around a thousand cases of corona virus and those case numbers seem to be leveling out while Burgum oh has seen case numbers shoot up to two thousand five hundred and young people. I'm talking to you. Data from South Korea where they test everyone they can is suggesting that. Thirty percent of the carriers in that country where aged twenty to twenty nine. If that's not enough to convince you let me point you to an actual animation. It is literally just balls. Dancing around and environment randomly representing infections over time. Look at what happens to the infection curve when only a quarter of a population continues to circulate and three quarters of a population practice social distancing. The infection rate is significantly slowed and with extensive distancing with seven eighths of a population staying home. The infection curve is stopped almost in its tracks. These are powerful animations but they are only animations only simulations made to educate on a concept. The concept is however. This is joke. If you can stay home let me quote. The last paragraph from the story accompanying the simulation quote in one crucial respect. These simulations are nothing like reality. Unlike simulations cove nineteen can kill though. The fatality rate is not precisely known. It is clear that the elderly members of our community are most at risk from dying from covered. One thousand nine hundred quote if you want this to be more realistic. A scientist was quoted after seeing a preview of the story some of the DOTS should disappear and quote link to the simulation is of course in the show. Notes questions are being raised as to whether or not more of US should be wearing face masks. Even if we're not showing signs of corona virus infection authorities in China already mandate the wearing of masks in all public places whether or not people are sick or healthy quoting from ink stone since late January Chinese authorities and major cities have enforced rules on wearing face masks in public spaces including detaining. Those who tried to use public transport without a mask and quote in South Korea and Japan is also required. That mask be worn by healthy people in crowded places but in much of the rest of the world including here in the US. It's advised that only people displaying symptoms should wear masks as just mentioned the possibility that corona virus can be spread by a symptomatic. People is causing some to argue for more widespread use of masks quoting again from ink stone. A symptomatic transmission has been reported in multiple countries in which a spreader is responsible for sickening others without knowing it in January at cluster. Thirteen infections was believed to have started with a British man who contracted the virus during a trip to Singapore and spread it to others on a skiing trip in the French Alps and back home in the United Kingdom all the while showing no signs of infection himself quote researchers writing in the Lancet suggested that in light of this current national advice may need updating to deal specifically with Ron Virus quoting from the peace. If everyone puts on a mask in public spaces it would help to remove stigmatization that has hitherto discouraged masking of symptomatic patients in many places. Furthermore transmission from asymmetric infected individuals has been documented for Kobe. Nineteen and viral load is particularly high at early disease. Stage masking as a public health intervention would probably intercept the transmission link and prevent these apparently healthy infectious sources and quote. All of that said as of right now. The advice remains to only wear a mask if you are displaying symptoms helping to conserve the mask as a resource masks are in short supply and are needed for medical practitioners. Who them more than the rest of us. In order to safely treat people not get sick themselves and thus stay on the job. A new study has revealed the length of time that Kobe nineteen can remain viable on common surfaces. The study so new that it is yet to be. Peer reviewed found that Corona virus was most stable on plastic and stainless steel with viable virus being detected up to seventy two hours on those surfaces after application it can also remain viable for up to twenty four hours on cardboard and up to four hours on copper. The researchers noted that these decay timings were similar to those found with the two thousand and two two thousand. Three SARS virus suggesting that quote differences in the epidemiology of these viruses likely arise from other factors including high viral loads in the upper respiratory tract and the potential for individuals infected with cove nineteen to shed and transmit the virus while a symptom matic and quote. There are presently two hundred and seventy four surface disinfectants approved by the EPA for use against Kovic Nineteen Link to the list is in the show notes at this point with store shelves increasingly bear. I'm sure a lot of us are continuing to rely on delivery especially Amazon prime delivery to keep ourselves stocked up with everything we need so that we can shelter in place. Avoid going out to stores as much as possible and just generally socially distance well an article and vices motherboard talking about the broader strains to workers in the sorting facilities and also the people who have to deliver our stuff makes the point that maybe our delivery systems are endangered as well quote. Motherboards spoke to Amazon Logistics Labor experts. Who say it's only a matter of time? Before Amazon's prime signature two day delivery promise serious delays mistakes and widespread shortages due to increased demands from consumers also pressure on workers to meet rising production quotas restrictions on trade and the possibility of fulfillment centers being. Shut DOWN AS CORONA VIRUS SPREADS. Amazon's warehouse workers. Say they're already seeing increased workloads while fewer of their colleagues are showing up to work. According Labor organizers already Amazon's white collar workers have been asked to work from home. But that's obviously not an option for warehouse fulfillment workers and delivery drivers quote. It seems really likely that. Amazon's prime delivery system will falter Daniel flaming president of Economic Roundtable and an author of the two thousand nineteen report on Amazon's economic impact on southern California told motherboard. One day deliveries may not be made within one day if the workers who do show up to warehouses are more stress given bigger routes and are possibly less experienced incorrect deliveries will be made. The last mile segment of the delivery is very labor intensive and quote flaming ads. That were likely to see a close parallel of what happens in Amazon warehouses. During the holiday rush increase delays mistakes and bottlenecks. It would seem to me. Most likely that we'll see a drop in reliability and timeliness and quote but more than that the fear here is the same with the health system basically if too many people involved in the Amazon delivery chain are even temporarily sidelined by the disease at the same time. It's possible that even Amazon delivery could go down to say nothing of the potential disruption to the supply chain I e if even Amazon can't source enough goods to