The Demographic Gaps Between Biden and Sanders


Talked about the racial gaps earlier between Black voters and Latino voters voters favoring Biden Latino voters favoring sanders generally. There's some interesting gender gaps that we're seeing women favoring Biden Sanders and I think that this young olds gap is a perpetual one in the Democratic primary. I mean Bernie Sanders Much much better with Young voters and I was just as we're sitting here. I'm reading. Some I love it when people transcribe cable. Pundits are saying it's good news for us and apparently David Plus who is Who Was Obama's strategist said? We'll Biden's going to really need to you know. Get a lot of young volunteers in that will be a project for them because it is not I mean he and I think you know talking to their campaign like this in this fall particularly when I was reporting a story and Biden. They were somewhat. You know people that I talked to the campaign chairman. When I talked to him he he was kind of like well. Young voters kind of don't understand that they're relax struggles that happened before and we kinda the pathway for them. There's a certain attitude shift that I think perhaps has to happen within the Biden campaign. Or or you know. Campaigns have tears right. You know what I think that's going to involve a lot of surrogates. I would agree with that. I think this is We're kind of looking at the okay. Boomer election here yeah. I mean we saw in Texas in Dallas last night beto come out on stage and give the final speech of the night. After Biden spoke Beto gave the last speech and was speaking in Spanish and getting much louder applause than Biden had gotten during his speech so I think he is going to rely on characters like that to try to boost youth enthusiasm. We'll see if it works. I think that's right. Claire Stole my answer. Basically to to what I'm looking for age race and gender and ideology are like very clear dividing lines in this race and I would be super curious and I hope we can look into like our voters in the Democratic primary like you know how in Congress ideologically Republicans and Democrats are now more distinct from each other than they have ever been. There used to be a lot of overlap. I wonder if along does demographic fault lines in the Democratic primary. We've seen like a separation between those groups more than in past primaries. Obviously there was some pretty clear full lines in two thousand sixteen. The other thing I just will we will be digging into is to delegate picture this is a race ultimately going to be about delegates some some fairly minor differences and where candidates finished wear could make a big difference in how many delegates they get And so I think that'll that'll be the thing. We'll be digging into over the next couple of days. Hopefully also by the way we'll turn the model back on hopefully sometime midday afternoon tomorrow or something like that and Just as a final update before we leave Mike. It looks like things are trending in the direction that you forecasted right now. According to The New York Times needle there is a seventy one percent chance. That Biden Wins Texas. And they're forecasting just two point margin. There Biden also still looking like he's going to pick up main and of course. Sandra is still doing very well up. Ten points in California. The the the The New York Times does something. I'd love which is a chain translator probabilities into into just a phrase so according to the New York Times as a twelve thirty five. Am on Wednesday. March Fourth Bernie. Sanders is quote. Pretty likely to win. California Biden is quite likely to win Maine and Texas is quote leaning Biden. I usually am not able to distinguish what exactly those three different. You need both you need. I'm saying that they give the end. Ender sort of like a phrase to help people place it. It's almost. It's almost like when I characterized erases at the top of the show. I was looking at the needle. And that's where I was basing this

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