Tom Kane, Lisa Women, Richard Yamarone discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
Spending overall. And there are a lot of these high frequency indicators, including restaurants, including air travel that give us an idea of where we are with that. But since Tom brought up the late great Richard Yamarone, there is another. Category that he used to look at all the time, and here's where I'll save Lisa Women's clothing. Women, according to Rich, where the controllers of the family budget, and so they knew when there was extra money to go out and buy things, And if the women's clothings sales are rising significantly, you can think that people have decided things are getting a little bit better if they're stagnant or falling. Then you can assume that things have gotten worse. That's the Yamarone indicator. So that would be like the fame. Richard Yamarone, Prada monitor. I mean, is that what you're coming down to me, mate? Seriously, Mike right now. Big boxes, killing it. Amazons, killing it. I think everything else in retail is really, really struggling to find a place in luxuries just flat out flat on her back. What do you see in consumer spending some 69 70% of the American economy? Well, you pretty much now that dominates the I didn't get a bigger box people and the delivery people online sales have been strong and again, the bigger the company the better off. They seem to be grocery store sales. We're very strong. They've sort of leveled off now is people have gotten all the toilet paper they seem to need. So at this point we you do want to watch the optional spending, particularly at restaurants Last week, the open table indicator declined a little bit. Andi saw bar and restaurant spending in the retail sales report a little bit weaker than it had been. So you've got to be concerned about things like that. And then, of course, we can spend the day talking to Lisa about whether she's shopping. You don't want to do that. I just don't got to say right now. Mark McKay. You could bring up something really important. That was consumers Disengaging. You actually seem real evidence of that happening in the U. S economy. What we're seeing in a slowdown in spending in the fact that services spending doesn't pick up a lot. What we're concerned about now. Is that a lot of states because we're in the middle of this third wave of the pandemic that's really hitting and you're seeing states start to close the optional businesses that inside dining bars and restaurants that sort of thing. And if that's the case, then we're gonna have another crimp on spending. It's not going to be a total lockdowns like we saw, but it is going to be sort of a spigot. You got to get through a throttling back a little bit of economic growth, and that growth gets recycled through the economy. So things slow down overall. Michael Everywhere I look, I see new cars. It seems like everybody's out there. Buy new cars. They're we have 17 million unit economy or was something different? Something new. Or is there a new mix between expensive new cars and more reasonable used cars? Well, we went from about 11 million back in April to about 15 to 16 earlier. Now, I don't know that we get back to 17 million, but a lot of what people have been buying are used cars and there seems to be a feeling that a lot of people are doing that because they don't want to use public transportation. And they want to make sure they can get to work. Now does that fade as people feel better about the virus? And do we see car sales start to fade a little bit, because those who are going to go buy cars did buy cars that's going to be an interesting dynamic. The automakers were all preparing for a world where we were going to run out by electric cars. Now people have loaded up on used cars, and you wonder if that's going away. Ah, whole replacement cycle and John So what we could say is car sales of decelerated. You could say that you don't want to say anybody's tapping the brakes or think what was Okay, this old school. This is old school journalism. I think they said it was looking at the ground. Lauderdale reported much better than expected earnings. Look at that. Yeah. And they sell you a car, Katie cases so We'll see it tomorrow morning, Mike for initial jobless serious now. Yeah, Yeah. 8 78 170,000 is the estimate right now? The previous number Tom at 98 of 900. I'm so glad you bring this up because you've got a debate tomorrow and you know, you got to wrap it around the debate. We're all this happy talk about Apple and Amazon and making money trying to not lose money. You know what? There's a whole other economy out there off that statistic we see with Mike at 8 30 don't say there is and one of the themes to borrow will be American families and security and those kind of things. Tom won't just be about covered 19, but we know what the administration what this president. More specifically would like to make this debate about the campaign's been pretty clear foreign policy. And I think, Lisa, we already got a good idea of where things are heading tomorrow evening in Nashville, Tennessee. Yeah, I think the mute button will be deployed. I'm curious to hear About China, a key issue and, frankly, a market moving one with people expecting Joe Biden to come up with something and they think that he's not going to be a hard on China's president Trump would be, which is one reason that people give for the acceleration asset prices over there. Yeah, but debates don't look like that. I mean, to be honest guys, and this goes back to our interview or not interview with Mr Giuliani a few days ago. John, this is going to be a president, I believe wants to talk about the son of Vice President Biden versus Mr Biden, who just doesn't want to make a mistake. Am I right on that? I think we'll have that kind of moments. Who are anything you keep bringing up a conversation and interview We had a number of weeks ago trying to move that was no interview of Happy talk. Just trying to move on. I don't know if you can call those kind of moments interviews. I'm not sure if that's what that Wass With Tom Kane and Lacey just crushed it with the mayor coming up Calor Group co founder from London and New York, this is blown back..