$50,000, $10,100, Mohamed El Aryan discussed on Biz Talk Radio Programming
And we'll talk about the latest wrinkle and President Biden's proposed tax hikes but first If you're nearing retirement, I'm sure you're liking this bull market. But you're also probably asking how much longer can it last A piece and market Watch warns the future returns are likely to be mediocre. If that's true, Brian, How do we make sure that those mediocre returns don't torpedo our retirement income? Yeah, that's true. I mean, you look back at the last 10 years and you go Wow, this thing did 10 12% and I'm telling clients. Let's just try to cut that in half. Let's not realistically expect that going for managing expectations. I don't see it. We were coming out of the 2000 and 2009 recession. We haven't had a recession since then. And technically since they started recording recessions better reserve, I think 1913 when they started recording recessions, there's been one every seven years. We're a little overdue. And so it's not the scary thought. I know it is. There's always the booms. And then there's the bus. Right. And so we've got a boom right now. Real estate is on fire as you know, right, And so was the stock market isn't is on fire right now. I keep waiting for it to go down, isn't it stayed above 23,000 for a long time, right? Yeah. So you've got Issues, though, with thinking that it's going to be like this forever, right? I'm just going to get 15% returns. A 12% returns every year. And so you've got to really And actually, there's some time periods. You look at the Dow over 20 some years. There's a lot of spots there were four or 5% 20 years. That's going to make it break some people's retirement. So a lot of people retiring early with not enough money. That's the biggest problem. I think I see. They're coming in here with under half a million dollars thinking. Oh, I got plenty of money. They don't have any pensions. Their social Security is not big and it's hard for me to tell him, but I don't think you gonna have enough right? And so what do you do about that? Well, you need to work longer Take more risk in the market. What other thing can you do? There's tax planning things you can do. But you can't really and if the folks live well below their means, then it can happen, right? What's part of time? $500,000 sounded like a ton of money did. It's just It's just it doesn't goes edges. It's not They're selling boats. You know, you can go to Smith Mountain Lake, You'll see boats running around there for 150. Oh, yeah. $5000 basket boats 70 80 $10,100. Yeah, So those wake surf boats that are flying around. There are At the house, right? My first houses 90,000, right. Nice three bedroom. Too bad, you know, So it's been half a million dollars something a lot, but over. I mean, if you're going to live to be 85, you're gonna stretch that amount of money. It's hard to do. The math is really a struggle for folks because they go well. If I took 4% of 20,000, I got social security between my wife and myself. As you know, there's a 30,000 so I got I got $50,000. I'm good. Declines for seven years. Your account values will go down. There's something called sequence of returns, and this article isn't really talking about that. But we talk about sequence in terms when you are, sir. Let's say you retired in two years. Everything was still cooking with gas like it is now and then also the market just tanks and you are taking out income. And there's a minus 10 on minus 20 another minus 15 3 years in around, you're taking income out. You retired. Remember your fishing Everything you've done it now made the move. Yeah, Yeah, you're not gonna about Yeah, So you're taking an income when it's dropping in value. It's called secrets returns. They're actually teaching and financial planning colleges all over the country now, because it's a real problem. It's like, okay, the math. You start looking at and you go. Wow. You never recover from it. And it's not a fear mongering thing. We can show you 18 different ways to show you. You can have a really good rate of return. Still get 8% rate of return, But you ran out of money. Mm hmm. Who doesn't want 89% rate of return, right? But if the market went up the same year, same time, right? You retired. And you still got that 8% over the 20 years. You were so successful. Yeah, but it's just all timing. Do you know if it's going to be a bull market or bear market? You retire? No, I mean, nobody knows right. And then then that's the point. I think his articles like well, are we coming up on that and all these people are seeing their account balances go up. I'm finally there. I can finally retire. That's what happened in 2000 and eight A lot of people had to go back to work. I hate to feel pessimistic, but I keep pointing for the stock market. Just crash. I really do. I know that sounds terrible, but I keep waiting for it to go down. You don't wish it okay? Yeah. Thanks. The Fed says all these higher prices were paying are to be expected because the economy is returning to normal. Ali, INS economist Mohamed El Aryan tells CNBC. He is concerned that the Fed is heading into uncharted territory. What worries me is the inflation side. What I'm seeing suggests it's not simply transitory, and the last thing we need is the Fed to slam on the brakes. Ended up in a recession. That's what worries me. I don't think inflation is transitory, and I worry about the Fed being late in responding. So if inflation is not transitory, that means it's here to stay. That's that's a long time. Problem. Yeah, I mean, they've got to stop. Print money out of thin air in giving it to people that aren't working. I mean, I'm sorry to be so bold, but we're just printed out and given it everywhere, and it's like the Fed has to staff the United States government has to stop. Inflation is here right now. It's not like Oh, you know, I think we're gonna have inflation. No. Go buy a house or try to build a house. We're in the middle of we're probably next month or you're gonna get bids on our new office building. And I'm talking to some contractors and like you better sit down when you get these bids. Not us. Our labor rates are about the same look, Quite the materials are through the roof up. And so that's inflation and it's here. And so you've got the same way as you. Did you get a big bonus in the last year or two. No No, but inflation going, right? Yeah, exactly. So I think what he's saying is that the Fed doesn't have to. Now. What does that mean to you? You have to invest your money We see so many times. Folks that come in with we got lazy money just sitting around Not doing anything. 200 years. 305 100. Have you seen over a million sitting in cash for years and cash money market right. It could be in an account like Add Fidelity Vanguard Charles Schwab or some bank brokerage. But it's not invested. You know why they don't have to do well, You told me it was like, What's that cash doing? What are you doing with that was like it's in my account, or like Okay. Can we do something with that? Yeah. What we need to do something with what you're doing is allowing the bank to borrow it out to someone else so they can make money off of you. That's what the bank does. They love you, And that's exactly what the banking model but you need to take that money and invested conservatively because that's kind of your actually you need to do that for me. Well, right, But I'm saying invested. It's still yours, right? Your decision, But the point is that that that cash can invest and be working for you. It's passive income. Yeah, I mean, that's a beautiful thing..