Sharon Powell, Peter Jump, Arale discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast

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Today we'll be wrapped in alongside with what may come or may not come from From sharon powell and we don't know how much of it is going to be wrapped in. But you know most people will probably tribute. If there's a market move after champion speaks should all of to the fed and not necessarily to thinking about like residual effects that people are holding off for now in reaction to this. You know to wait for the chairman to speak. So just keep in mind an important framework peter jump in and give us your thoughts. What are you looking at today. Well i think western just said on the surface might sound really simple but if you take it to the next level. I think what you're alluding to us is the idea that fiscal policy might not take first stance from a policy perspective and things might get shifted around a little bit and in a time. Where growth is kind of slowing. You're kind of setting stage for. I don't know left tail skew. So to say i'm not one of those people who was looking crash all the time. Stocks usually go out. But the thing is like you're in a kind of perfect storm environment. I think like consumer sentiment is dropping. Inflation is starting to come off a little bit at least growth. Looks like it's stored of stabilized in the medium-term and on top that you know talking about you know jackson hole you gotta do. You had a completely dovish fed last year. And this year they're talking about tapering the complete opposite. So it's gonna be an interesting response. I think western is perfectly right to call some things. What does that mean peter. You're you're active trader. Your daily trader tells. What does it mean when you see those reversals. Very sharp reversals. Typically a historically at least we think of monetary policy something that plays out on a longer timeframe arale famously says a row pallor founder and ceo for those new viewers who just joined us wral often says the macro is a monthly a time horizon. Things moving very quickly though yet. Things are moving quickly. I think you could probably take a look at what happened. I can't remember the year exactly was two thousand. Thirteen the taper tantrum If that's right that that. I think that might be a good proxy for gauging. What could happen in this kind of a risk environment. The thing about two thousand and thirteen was i think yet european europe start to slow down. It was around the time. Post a european crisis. Well things warrant. It wasn't smooth sailing as it was today back. Then or should i say pre coded so actually banned for people who are in markets in twenty thirteen and tell them what the taper tantrum was tantrum. A rapid a shift upward in bond yields meaning Yields rose dramatically prices foul on news that the fed was going to begin to withdraw liquidity withdraw accommodation from markets by. Yeah exactly and that basically given the post two thousand nine response to the great financial crisis scared the bejesus out of markets. And you had a little bit of a risk off trade now. The magnitude of that might not be met. But there's still that open window. I think that you have given basically the kind of the cloud. Because above our heads right now western. Jump in yeah i i. I.

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