Ucla, Utah, Oregon discussed on Bet The Board

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Wise, there appears to be a handful of good offenses. Florida of the shoot, UCLA, USC and Oregon for very likely top 25 offenses at Florida can find someone to catch a football. Oregon state might be able to flirt with that ballpark too, but there's quite the dichotomy with 5 games against teams we project to have an average offensive efficiency rank of 22nd. And then the other 7 games, it's 97th overall. Based on our current power ratings. Utah has a 51% chance or greater to win every game. Toss up at Oregon right now, two point favorite at Florida opened the season. Every other game on the schedule, including at UCLA and hosting USC, we give Utah more than a 61% chance of winning time. Hey, I mean, this is a program that we've talked about for years being a sleeping giant. It was always a question of could they lure skill position talents into their league. And while I don't ever like to really make the comparison, I almost feel like Utah and their trajectory within the PAC 12 was very similar to what we saw Stanford years ago or Stanford played a bully ball style. They were more physically imposing than a lot of their conference mates and it paid dividends when you could wear them down, especially late in the year. And to Utah's credit, this was a season last year that could have very easily gotten off the rails after a slow start when you lose the San Diego state in overtime. You lose the holy war against BYU, but the utes got things on track and were able to win that first conference championship in program history as members of the PAC 12. You talked a little bit about one of the top offenses that Utah is going to face this season. That would be the UCLA bruins. And when we look at UCLA, chip Kelly's team ten to one underdogs to come out of the pack 12 is conference champions, their win total, 8 and a half flat at this point, a lot of their win total attributed to arguably one of the softest non conference schedules that you could possibly put together for a team hailing from a power 5 conference. But there is reason for optimism in Westwood. As UCLA will bring back a starting quarterback and Dorian Thompson Robinson, who we make this joke all the time, really has felt like he's been on campus for 37 years. It's actually entering his 5th season as a member of the program. Did throw for 20 touchdowns and ran the ball very effectively last year. It felt like some of the poor decision making that plagued him through his first couple of seasons wasn't as a parent when you watch the bruins game to game. They bring back a talented running back in Zach charbonnet, who's going to be the horse, his rushing total last year was the most at UCLA since 2015 and possesses a powerful downhill running style. As far as pass catchers are concerned, this is an area where UCLA has some concerns offensively. It's going to look a lot different without the likes of Kyle Phillips and Greg dulcich that's out there. Some reason for optimism along the offensive line as well. But when you look at what chip Kelly is building with this UCLA bruins team, where are they going to be able to realize new heights in their final couple of seasons as members of the PAC 12? New heights? Maybe. I think last year was probably the potential for their peak. Especially with USC and heading to the Big Ten. I don't know. I think there was some speculation that chip was on the hot seat last year and they gave them a rinky dink extension this year. So we'll see. But a lot went right for chip Kelly's offense last year. Had one of the best run blocking offensive lines. That really led the way. Top 15 in line yards opportunity rate and stuff right allowed. Zack sharpener had more juice than I think anyone thought coming over from Michigan for 69 missed tackles on 204 attempts. And UCLA ended up with a top ten run game in terms of EPA. But the biggest difference to me and it took chip Kelly's offense from fringe top 30 in 2020 to fringe top ten in 2021 was the leap that DTR made. His adjusted accuracy, eclipsed 77% when he was kept clean. That was a personal best since being at UCLA. He stopped forcing balls into coverage. You could see just kind of watching it and you could see it in the numbers that he was taking better care of the football. For the first time in DTR career, had more touchdown passes than turn over worthy playwright. It actually doubled with as good as UCLA's ground game was chip dialed up a ton of play action. 32% of DTR drop backs were using play action and boy. He was elite throwing with play action. Among quarterbacks with at least 300 job backs, DTR is 10% completion rate increase and is 12.2 yards per attempt using play action was top 7 among all college quarterbacks. And we know the rent thread is. But as I look at it, he's going to have to make another leap this year because I don't know if the parts around him are as good. So his game has to hit even a new height. UCLA lost its own line coach Justin fry, who moved on to Ohio State and its top three guys in gratin junior, Ryan and Anderson. That's both starting tackles and a guard. That trio played almost 2300 snaps last season of elite ball. UCLA does get marrazzo back from injury along with gains and Clemens. That's likely the interior of the line and then UCLA will figure out the tackle position between ray Quan O'Neill, the fringe forced art transfer from Rutgers, who I have heard. A lot of teams passed on that needed to tackle. They don't think he's as good as that rating. Jalen Jeffers, the Oregon transfer and Garrett DIA journo and Josh Carlin, who manned the tackle position in spring, all those guys are fighting for a right tackle spot, keeping a close eye on that to see how things shake out during fall camp. Some turnover at a key spot for UCLA there. Finding reliable pass catchers is going to be interesting to your point between Kyle Phillips and Greg dulcich. Two guys that were drafted in April, UCLA's replacing more than 49% of its receptions, 54% of its receiving arts and 65% of its receiving touchdowns between just those two guys. Jake Bobo transfers in from duke, big body 6 5 guy. I think he's a nice security blanket for DTR. Casmir Allen's back, the average 2.4 yards per route run last season. It would be nice if that number can translate again in an expanded role very short sample last year. Most UCLA insiders think cam Brown could make the leap and be the best receiver on the team. The former four star receiver from Hawaii transfers in from UCF, his name is Titus. I will not pronounce his last name. And there's been a ton of buzz. Come on, give it a shot to pronounce the name. Let's go. No, no, no, no. For the sake of his family. Then you have your freshman, Jaden Marshall, top 200 guy, all of the hype is that he is going to take on the D Anthony Thomas role from chip's old days at organs. Now look at the schedule and how it shakes out. UCLA has four games to get the O line and receiver group figured out before hosting Washington. Both Utah and USC are home games with a buy before Oregon. We have UCLA just a dog to Utah and at Oregon to pick them hosting USC as it stands right now. The remaining 9 games, UCLA will be favored. From an offensive perspective, the 11 FPS teams UCLA will face have an average projected defensive efficiency rank of 62nd. Alabama state is one of the worst teams on earth. Schedule is very manageable with how it sets up. Although you beat USC, you do have that short week trip at Cal, which could be interesting from a betting perspective at the end of the season. Yeah, I'm not sure what to expect to Cal, not a team that'll crack our breakdowns here.

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