DC, Perry, Vegas discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics

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Considering he is still objective we're leading in the polls but will see what everyone has to say and by everyone i mean senior politics writer climb alone how's it going it's kind of walk in managing editor my commentary you good thank you for having me and also joining us from dc is senior writer perry bitten junior how're you i'm doing great things from fabulous end nate silver is out today he's still playing poker in vegas who knows i get a mulligan from work and be like on playing poker can't come in i mean try it and see what happens hopefully a whistle by of lunch with all those winning when he returns you know this is a test to see if you actually listens this podcast yeah okay we we should ask introduce something if he wasn't still upon eight five hidden something in your office and it will only appear at the worst possible time now my my desk if you wanna know where and what it is if you hear me quite cold jason if you hear this nate slack the group with the word little piggy okay so you're saying something he wouldn't do just by happenstance link link all right a also today representative from michigan founding member of the freedom caucus and frequent trump critic justin a mash announced his independence on july fourth that is he wrote an op ed in the washington post the he's leaving the republican party to become an independent citing partisan politics as they quote existential threat to american principles and institutions so we're gonna discuss whether his defections says anything about the broader political climate end will evaluate the state of the never trump movement in general will get to all of that later in the show but let's begin with joe biden so first off i want everyone to kind of lay out their positions before we delve deeper into the debate so clear what start with you is biden still the front runner i would say yes biden is still the front runner but it's a soft bleed the polls don't tell us anything other than that but i'd say the races there's a lot more fluid alright mica i'm gonna say no not no real meaningful way ooh okay end in like two sentences why is he not the front runner i think we learned that one much much of his support what sort of salt support an to his level of support in the polls has gone down hasn't gone down a huge amount but he has kind of cross the a critical threshold at least historically from a polling support where you sort of have at least about a fifty fifty shot to win the nomination to there's an inflection point where you become an underdog a relative to the field and i think now he's clearly an underdog relative to the field so historically somebody with an eleven point we'd over the next person in the pack for example doesn't go on to win the nomination the majority of the time or even half the time so like historically this is all based on some analysis nate has done but like historically a wellknown canada polling in let's say the mid thirties high thirties has anywhere from fifty to seventy five percent chance of winning the nomination okay that canada polling in the let's say twenty thirties has anywhere from like at ten percent chance to a forty five percent you man my short answer is pretty yeah the follow up question yeah although i mean he came out with a pretty bold position so i couldn't let him get away with calling biden not the phone i thought we were gonna go around and come back all right perry what do you have for us is joe biden still the front runner i think unequivocal yes and others harry lake shore exactly why one is just be obvious he leaves the national polls also he leaves the polls and early states iowa new hampshire it's not gonna be leads all the early he pulled in the early stay poll do matter in second if you look at the polls even the pull the show a closer race and when you ask democrats who do you view is most likely to be trump biden is like gets half fifty percent or something like that he's like electability she is a big issue in this primary maybe people forgot about it for a minute but i think it's gonna come back and be a huge threat i think he's got a big advantage electability i think that's an during factor in this primary what we're saying is that you're you're being seduced boost by the crusting waves in the news cycle i think that there's certainly a danger in that and i do think it's good news for biden that he seems to have dropped so i saw one average edge that had him basically going from thirty percent in an average of polls twentyfive percent in an average of polls that's a five point drop at certainly better than a ten point drop or or fifteen point drop which which some polls hat but look it's not just that his polling has dropped i think it's why it's dropped in it how it's dropped you know i think we saw in those debates abide in that didn't seem all that electable yeah so what i'll say since i didn't get to give my long answer is that i think the worst seat like my constant refrain which i should probably get printed on a t shirt is it's probably too early the debate obviously had in effect for biden and i think that his campaign has been doing some cleanup work afterwards you saw him over the weekend basically apologize for the segregation is comments what two weeks after the fact i think that had a lot to do with the fact that he got pummeled in the debate and it didn't it didn't go well but i think that we've you've seen okay since january which is basically when this presidential campaign kicked off over seven months into this we've seen so many like story flavors of the month and i'm not saying that this is a flavor of the month thing i think this is like a fundamental thing about biden campaign they that is a weakness but i'm not prepared to say that he's not the front runner because i think it has to play out in real life for a few weeks just see what that's like so i'm interested in the end of august when that second debate rolls around and he gets stage likely more prepared than he was the first debate i'm kind of curious to see what the polling on biden is who's may be cornering black support if it's if it's sort fledged away from from by more and more but i just i just feel like it's it's too early to say i think again to go back to lease often but i think he's still the leader so make a trigger point about him appearing on stage as not necessarily electable that polling that perry referred to as half of democratic primary voters saying that they saw him as the most electable i think it was from nbc washington post poll that showed that forty five percent of democratic primary voters after the debate so after all of that went down still thought of him as v most likely to win in a general election the next person in line was bernie sanders with only eighteen percent saying he was the most likely that forty five percent of democrats say biden is the most electable even post debate i just think those are soft numbers i think that people think of white men as more electable i think once hey people see and you're already start to see some of this once eight people see harris and warren these other canada it looking better then biden onstage into like once actually some of these other can win some states i think those electability numbers will book chasing here's the question do you think biden warren harris and sanders you're all in the same stage how that affects biden i don't think that biden presentation of voters is actually all that dependent on who's on stage with him i mean i'm to me i'm i'm really interested to see biden in warren onstage together given their history war and sort of now famously or only famously in if you like called biden out for his you know she she wanted a certain kind of bankruptcy bill way back in the early two thousands and biden was against it and she said you know joe biden says he's pro woman but he's you know he's really screwing women over so she's been pretty harsh for a long time about joe biden in particular and i'm kind of curious to see whether or not she goes after i'm like that on stage and that has an effect or if again to go back to be the double bind the women find the in the presidential race if that comes off as to a tacky well let me let me sort of why am i going samantha i biden i went into this campaign thinking that biden's rickard would be out of step with the energy and the democratic party forty but that biden himself in his campaign wouldn't feel that out of step this kind of what happened with clinton in twenty sixteen where sure there is a lot of energy on the left but clinton was briley liberal herself ran a liberal you know on a liberal platform i've been really surprised by one the extent to which by then even contemporary comments like biden on the trail has felt out of step with not only where the energy is in democratic party but the democratic party writ large like i i mean i know i guess i know what you're saying but it's also like not all voters are into the new ideas they're being put forth in the democratic party a lot of them are but biden is you know he's carving out his own moderate lane in that and he figures he's got like an unobstructed view that yeah perry do you see him as out of step with voters are maybe just out of step with the people who are running for president in twenty twenty m first of all i think he used the phrase gangbangers either day they're just moments where he's out of step with how everyone talks he was not particularly good in the debate he doesn't have a lot of interesting policy ideas either but i don't see this is about joe biden i don't see us candidacies joe biden was not known is a particularly centrist person before this campaign i think he's his campaign is just been like older the opening in the center let's take it and that makes sense but i don't think he's i'd allegedly set in the center in that way but i think he's began is is not the debate and anything else with joe biden is a man who is not a socialist and that is all the that's what his campaign is about he can't say every day i'm a man who's not a socialist socialist but that is what his voters are looking for i think his entire tennessee is about only i can win i don't agree with this view the women can't win but enough democratic voters i talked to believe it to where i'm sure joe biden staff is fully aware of this so i think he's kind of running out the clock i'm not surprised he's doing poorly things did anybody watch the campaign he was good at the i think he's gonna debates in the beginning of this process i'm not surprised harris in warren are better than him a debate that's not that's what i expected on some level am but i still think as long as his main competition is to women in a socialist he's going to get a lot of electability because harry see i'm not surprised by that either but i am surprised by that first point you made which is biden bite in this kind of run out the clock strategy the bind campaign has mostly been kind of reactive so far that is surprising to me is all well and good if you're pulling at you know thirty five percent or forty or forty five percent but not if you're pulling out like twentyfive percent twenty percent i don't think that works 'em i think in i just make the make a counterpoint of sorts the coalition biden has even if it's like not strong it's moderates it's white people college degrees it's african americans is people over forty five i liked that coalition if i'm biden in part because of the other candidates except for the.

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