Michael Castner, Carol Messer, Tim Stevan discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


Aftershock near Santa Rosa. On Michael castner. Carol messer. This stock has been on a terrible Tim stevan. So take us into the economic impact. And the reporters and editors you trust. Let's dig into it with Bloomberg business week editor Joe Weber. Bloomberg businessweek, weekdays at 2 p.m. eastern on Bloomberg radio. In this time, it is wrong to receive extraordinary record revenues and profits, benefiting from war and on the back of our consumers. Our proposal will raise more than 140 billion for member states to cash in the blow directly. Of the European Commission just a bit earlier today. She went on to talk about rounders, too. How it's performed baseball. You don't need to do this. About half of 1% also Tom. John, I also just Vander Lion is a former defense minister of Germany's encyclopedic on Germany's ability to help Ukraine. It's something people don't know. On the mistakes have been made. Yes, but she's truly encyclopedic on their military ability. Santa, I don't know if back with this trevon a word over at JPMorgan. Oksana on Europe. We've had a lot of guests on the program and they approach the situation in Europe as follows, not if there'll be a recession, how deep it will be. Do you have the same approach right now? Yes, definitely Europe, of course, is dealing with issues that the U.S. is somewhat insulated from we talk about energy and how energy has led up here in the U.S., for example, but European gas prices are on the rise again. And so without a doubt, there is definitely a lot of focus on how deep that recession will end up being and we're seeing it in investors being to the extent they're underweight equities are really majorly underweight European equities, specifically, a much, much less so in the U.S.. They're essentially flat in terms of their U.S. equity exposure. So without a doubt, the issues there are much more significant we're seeing it in higher spread slightly more elevated spreads, lower returns year to date. So absolutely. Right. What's your visibility to 2023? I'm fascinated by the September reset. It's way too early to talk about a yearend review, but do you have any view axona to how to invest into 2023 or you just making it up as you go? I will tell you one thing I take a lot of issue with what the market is pricing in for next year, which is nothing other than the fed making a U turn and becoming accommodative. And it is quite clear to me that the fed is going to pursue its aggressive stance and eventually become perhaps neutral, but not accommodative. And that's not what our prices are reflecting right now. Someone earlier mentioned our last hiking cycle, the 2015 2018, which was extraordinarily benign. We had inflation at barely 2%. We had a higher unemployment and still we had, for example, in a lower credit spreads after the last that high back then were in the high 500s, 5 75 if I remember correctly. And today, when someone talks about fair value and credit, what's really what's fair valued right now, high yield is pricing significantly below 20 year average. Forget, 20 year recession average. So I think there is definitely a lot of complacency since still being placed into this market being priced into this market. And we need to really be focused on high quality floating rate, very short, but floating rate preferably. And really wait for that capitulation point. That will be my tip off to start to really get more aggressive. Just to put a bow on this, how much of your portfolio is in cash like instruments and how much have you been building that? So we came into the year already quite defensively positioned. And we've been building it throughout the year. Yes, we've been tactically trading, you know, the curve and taking advantage of the backup and yields at the front end of the curve, but as far as sort of more strategic allocation to longer term risk in the interest rate driven or credit driven markets, we've really tried to stay back and actually build our liquidity. We are still or actually have arrived now at around 70% liquidity, which is focused again on those high quality floating rate structures. And we think that that capitulation point will happen we're just starting to see markets reckon with the reality that this fed means what it said with the reality that higher cost of capital is not going to be great for fundamentals. And even this is really important to understand that we don't need to see a 2008 or some kind of dramatic recession occur. We just need to see historic defaults or defaults start to move toward historic average in the corporate sector of three and a half percent. Right now they're at one to start to see those spreads wide and dramatically compared to where they are today. Oksana, you need to let us know when you're ready to put that cash to work. We need to cash out when we get to that moment. In some hour enough for JPMorgan. In fancy talk John, 70% liquidity floating rate. She's on the edge of the triple leveraged all cash flow. I would say that was pretty gloomy, pretty bearish. Yeah. I have to say, that's a lot of cash bramo. 70% liquidity at what point do they get the conviction to

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