Michael Pittman, Doyle, Six Games discussed on Establish The Run


Draftkings vandal have still let People get two hundred fifty. Maybe they'll cap it out there. But i know it doesn't sound like a lot of people but for profit that's not bad. So credited draftkings vandal for having a big menu and also allow people to bet you know reasonable. Two hundred fifty is that have you noticed that at all amigo as you've been firing at these yet. I don't think i can get more than like three dollars down at mgm. So the limit delimits are definitely way different. I mean i think vandals only maybe live me like once or twice and i'm very much batting pretty similarly across everyone like you said Shut out to them. Yeah for sure. Yeah and like. I said like we're not gonna get richer but one of the reasons that it's so solved is because they're not allowing people to bet a thousand five thousand ten thousand on these if you only allow people to bet to re three hundred while you can have this as kind of marketing thing And people like it. I like it. it's fun. Okay let's talk some more about this under stuff. The only because people hate to hear. If you don't like betting on but man on season-long props. I just might god and there's a few reasons why i think for for weeklies for a second. I think the media. I mean stuff is a conversation worth having in other words. Books are so often using seasonal averages for their weekly props but the seasonal average does not take into account. The moa cox had like one game ninety yards but six games of fifteen or less in also take into context. That may be win. Cox had that ninety our game jack. Doyle was hurt and to me. That's the main case for unders in weekly. I wanna get to the case for underdog unders in season-long in a second but under unders in weekly leoni. I think mean verse. Median is is the most important thing anything else on the weeklies why we lean under so heavy. Yeah i mean when you get to the guys like travis. Calcium whatnot have really high yardage props. Their distributions are little bit more normal meaning. The meeting meaning media are a little bit closer but again. It's kind of fifty fifty thing amigo. Sad like the lines fifty fifty. There's still more things that can probably go. Wrong for travis kelsey. That are being big into line whether it's an in game injury blow out that type of thing and then the players like marquez valdes. Scantling just sticks out as a guy who you're randomly have three four hundred. But then i'll have some games or touches one or two short passes and that's it. The guys would the lower yardage props generally have the bigger disparity between their mean and median projection. Because they'll have especially guys like a high eight dot like they'll have a again if they're taking their seasonal allergies for receiving such high yards per cash. If there's just a lot more variance in that and when they're going over they might be beating the over by a lot but they're going under more frequently okay for purpose of today that i wanna talk about season-long i mean my god think about all the ways. A season long can go under injuries. Rest loss of roll roll wasn't what we expected in the first place a preseason injury a pre-season signing that changes in season signing that changes uses issues really hard for the books to make these numbers low enough especially at running back and wide receiver maybe quarterback because their injury rate is less. Maybe you can make case there but for running back while she pretended it's just really hard with books to make it low enough Don't know is there anything. I'm missing there. It just seems like it's. I'm like in pain to take over on this season long props. Yeah i mean. I know a to hilton's in example of one of the first season long prop bets. I think that we listed all off season. And i forget the exact number i think it was. His catchers was sixty four at sixty four and a half catches yet ourselves more conservative. We have him like barely at fifty catches. But that's just an example of a bat where he can play seventeen games and not hit right. We can make a decent argument for him not hitting it being a coin flip. Maybe even being slightly on our side even. Let's say it's fifty fifty over seventeen games the things that can go. Wrong parris campbell. Michael pittman are there. It's a new quarterback. It's a run heavy offense. It's very spread out target shares in this offense and you can tell yourself a lot of ways that this goes wrong for t y hilton before even factoring in a bit more of the age model an injury staff and and that's why we really like unders because we feel pretty confident. We're not getting a bad line right. Like it's and the overs. You have to be a bit more careful where it's a little easier to fall into a trap so to speak because these hidden like unseen edges generally push things under the last of them that pushed things over. Would you want to be aware of younger players. That could break out. See bigger roles and where we're susceptible there but hilton's a great example of an aging player in kind of uncertain spot. Where all the things that seem like. They could break differently than you're expecting. Most of them would break negatively. A not positively. Yeah and just like specifically on you. I think they're gonna play a pretty heavy rotation again at wide receiver would surprise you. I was playing like ninety five percent of the snaps other one that we took Migos a series tony under five hundred and thirty five yards. I think that was on fox bet. At minus one ten obviously could area's. Tony enters the year with a very uncertain role. We did take in over though. I wanna touch on this for a second. Because i just got done with his rant about how i paint me to take over but i did take one. I think he took it to amigo. It was rondell more over five hundred and a half receiving yards. God i as. I was like taking it. I was like god. This is so bad. But i think rondell more is going to play the larry fitzgerald role which yielded five and a half targets per game last year except rondo. Moore's actually going to be productive work in the horizontal raid third horizontally to rondell more. Let him do stuff after the catch. I think he's gonna be really effective. I needs to be more effective than christian kirk but again. We are projecting a role here. That said five hundred half is very low for a player in this offense. Qadir's tony five. Thirty five and a half. He could be the number four wide receiver. Maybe number five option the past behind hitting her as well. So that's my case over embarrassed to say that i took it over though emeka was kind of humiliating You wanna talk specifically about the rondell more bet. I think that in general with the younger players and a lotta times..

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