"Affect your pocketbook. I'm Rick Newman. And I'm Alexis. Christopher and this week we are talking about Elizabeth Warren's rise in the Democratic primary polls and how that seems to be rattling rattling Wall Street so the senator from Massachusetts we know has made corporate greed sort of the central theme of her populist campaign. But Rick are investors right here to fear a possible Warren Presidency. Well we'll never know until and unless she becomes president of course but there's plenty of fear Just recently we've had investors investors Some famous investors Leon Cooperman and Paul Tudor Jones among them coming out and predicting that the stock market could fall by twenty five percent or more if Elizabeth with Warren Becomes President and I understand why they think that because looking at her plan on paper It's pretty intimidating if you're looking at it from the perspective of An investor buying stocks. But I went through this with Trump in twenty sixteen in all of the predictions about what happened to the economy. If trump it became president It was gonNA crash right right and I wrote some of those stories. I have to acknowledge And that obviously didn't happen so there were there. There was a lot of analysis and these were by premier forecasting firms. Looking out basically what they could figure out about trump's plans because he was much more slapdash back then he did not have finally articulated plans on a website. The Way Elizabeth Warren did he had some broad brush things he wanted to do and then he had a lot of things he would say over and over again at rallies is an interviews so some forecasters try to piece together. What they thought his plan was and predict what effect that would have on the economy and they were all terrible? Tick through some some of the show. One of them was that trump was going to employ impose forty five percent tariffs on Chinese goods and Mexican grids. Neither one of those things as has come to pass right so if you go back in time. Trump was railing against basically all imports or every country where we had a trade deficit which most of them but the biggest were China and Mexico. So he said he would Impose tariffs of forty five percent on all Chinese imports and thirty five percent tariffs on all Mexican imports except for oil Now there have been no tariffs on Mexican imports and other trump said he might do is Just completely pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement so no longer have free trade with Mexico and everything would go back to. They would tariff our imports. We would tear their imports and so forth In that did not happen. We have a re negotiated NAFTA which which is not yet been approved. So the old Nafta is still in effect There's actually been no change. It but trump has negotiated this new deal that would replace it. But he hasn't done those terrible things. With regard to trade with Mexico on China he has imposed some tariffs on some Chinese imports. As we've been reporting on quite a lot but they're nowhere near forty five percent and they're not across the board either so They range from fairly low tariffs I think as low as ten percent and then some go above twenty five percent but On the hall. We're nowhere near forty-five percent on all Chinese imports so to go back to those forecasts. Those forecasts were an attempt to figure out what happened. If trump did everything he said he would do and and trump has not done everything he said he would do just to get to one other thing trump. Everybody will remember. This said he was going to repeal the affordable care act. And he didn't do that either. So so the reason we're talking about this is a big difference between Elizabeth Warren's plans on paper and what she actually would be able to put in place in practice president. That's what I'm talking about. The Bark is worse than her bite was the same the same with trump. So let's go through some of the things you think. Warren would have a nearly impossible possible time actually getting past if she were to make it to the presidency. And I want to begin with fracking. Warren has said she wants to ban. Frank fracking fracking. What do you think the likelihood is even if she were to step into the presidency with both a Democratic House and Senate? What's the likelihood that happens? I I don't think she can do it. I mean you cannot just a president doesn't have the power to just put an industry out of business. I guess it's theoretically possible you could pass pass some law that in effect would make fracking So I mean you could put a tax on it for example that would be so high it would make it cost prohibitive I just don't I don't think that's plausible I know why she wants to do it. It's not that she She doesn't have anything a grudge against fracking per se. That's her way of getting out of fossil. Oh fuels into renewable energy. So that's her. Big Pitch to environmentalists and people who support the green new deal. You know there are a lot of jobs and fracking You know there's talk of Democrats possibly winning Texas In the You know either. If it's a house somehow seats a Senate seat or even taking it at the presidential level if Elizabeth Warren and is a nominee. I don't it seems impossible to me because one of her things is banning fracking which is a major industry in Texas also big industry in the Rustbelt Ohio. Pennsylvania I'm from western Pennsylvania. I have relatives there that who are telling me how strong the economy is in part because of new types of energy. Jobs there North Dakota South Dakota I mean you can't just come into business and in declare coming to the White House and declare all these industries dead. It's just kind of politically impossible possible. So she could Probably find ways to use executive action. which is what trump has done to Increase the rules and regulations around fracking racking. which would you know could make it harder to do and more expensive to do I think the political reality is this idea and others like it. She's appealing into people on the left environmentalists on the left and others. I just don't think she can do it politically. What about the hot button? Issue of Medicare for all. She says she wants to pay for for it by taxing the rich. How likely is it that that plan becomes reality? We'll put aside for a moment how much it would cost And we have to keep in mind that The Medicare for all means you're moving about one hundred and seventy million people off of private insurance into a government plans. We've we've talked about this a bunch of times on on our podcast You know everybody loves to Bash Insurance Companies and Elizabeth. Warren says. She doesn't know anybody who feel who feels good about their insurance company. She's actually wrong about that There are good surveys. That show Most of the people who who get insurance through their employer feel that that's a pretty good deal they they like their insurance. They feel they have good access to doctors. They probably don't express it as love for an insurance company. Basically be taking away From people something that it's really important to them that they're pretty happy with and trying to convince them that this government plan will be better so I think that's an example of something she can talk about the only one. I think that is politically implausible. And I don't I don't think she'd get that even if she had a Democrats controlling both the house and the Senate. And you think that's maybe because some of those lawmakers would would have constituents who would just bar too loudly about it and they couldn't vote for it and I think once you actually start to talk about Medicare for all as a as actual legislation relation that you're considering passing people will start paying more attention to it. I don't even think it's going to get as well. I mean there is legislation already to do this but if this starts to look like it actually actually might get a vote. In Congress people start paying more attention. They'll start to realize what it means. How many people are GONNA lose the insurance that they actually like you know just to go back to The affordable care act that only affected about five million people in terms of the insurance. They had at the time that they would. They would no longer be able to keep because the rules changed those. Those policies were no longer valid. So people law about five million people lost the insurance. They had and look at the uproar over the affordable care. Act For just five million people so take one hundred fifty million at least One hundred and seventy when you million when you include people who buy that insurance themselves At multiples of how controversial Obamacare was and I. It's not gonNA happen. People all would also start paying attention to the cost and this is again this is the money is what these big investors are talking about and looking out when they focus on what would happen to the stock market. So Elizabeth. Warren says her plan would cost What does she say two to point two trillion dollars per year? She's off by about one point four trillion dollars there other third party estimates are in the range of three point four trillion dollars per year Where's that money going to come from when you start looking at it? She recently said it's all going to come from business taxes and billionaire taxes and But she also has underpricing it so we'd have to come up with more taxes And this is why this is why. There's the concern about wild. The stock market is GONNA hate this. Because you're you know you're you're she's raising taxes says on businesses in a bunch of different ways so first of all she wants to wants to tax financial transactions there's all transactions chins are financial firms. So that's a tax on financial firms or it would be directed at financial firms and she'd probably find a way to direct institutional investors rather than mom and pop But it becomes kind of the same thing at some point I mean if if transaction costs go up on banks they're like the charge more fees to their customers or just try. Try to recoup it somehow so here all taxes she's thinking about so there's that financial transaction tax which think that's basically banks and trading firms. She wants to repeal the two thousand seventeen seventeen tax cuts so the corporate tax rate would go back up to thirty five percent. Went down to twenty one percent so she'd put it back up there. That has a pretty good chance of passing depending on the makeup of Congress if she president. I don't think it would go back to thirty five. I don't think it would be prudent to push back to thirty five. Let me just finish my list. She wants to rate. There is a tax hike. Welcome back to that She wants she also. has this corporate surtax idea so any company any big company that makes more than one hundred million dollars dollars in profits. There'd be an additional seven percent tax on that and then some smaller taxes here and there and there's also the wealth tax So shares with Bernie Sanders. Why investors are worried so all what all of these things combined would do they would lower corporate profitability and so You lower corporate profits.."