Taiwan, Beijing, China discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist

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China has repeated. Its Promise to regain regain control of Taiwan after voters reelected president sighing. When Chinese state media said the president resorted to cheating repression and intimidation to get votes? Were joined in mischievious by Isabel Hilton editor of China Dialogue. Good to have you back in this year is this was a very convincing. Victory for her wasn't it. I could hardly be more convincing. And not they need to cheer chief record. Numbers of votes For any Taiwanese politician She also won a convincing victory in the Congress winning twice as many any seats as serious. Rival Gorman down and what is it that brought this. This huge victory is pretty much. Hong Kong You know the the the example of Hong Kong the the failure of One Country Two Systems in Hong Kong the Kuomintang have traditionally being the Party. Reunification the Kuomintang are the the the The relic of the Chinese civil war which was between the Kuomintang and and the and the Communist Party. They agree that China is one country in Taiwan belongs to it they just disagree about who should run it so the Kuomintang's historic position of being there the rightful ruler of all of Hong Kong. Where saying when is a Taiwanese politician politician and takes different view of history in a different view of democracy in a different view of of Taiwan role in the world? And that is is what particularly the young voters in Taiwan and they came out in record. Numbers Dave look at Hong Kong. They say well. You can't trust China. It breaks its promises what we have is freedom and democracy here and we wish to defend that that's what it is seen as a steady pair of Hanser. She's pretty steady. There were where to other parties that did rather badly One one is one was a a much more radical independence party and that Did very badly. So she's seen as somebody who defends the status quo essentially. She's not going to declare independence because that would be that that would trigger a global crisis But she is going to resist pressure from Beijing to talk about the the future of a close future with with with the People's Republic. So I think you know like a number of international crises. The best solution certainly for the time being is the status quo for Taiwan. He mentioned the idea ever close future with the People's Republic China's reaction promised to regain regain control of Taiwan. That doesn't necessarily time. We've what you've just said I'm but Kennedy genuinely says it we could have react. We could have expected that reaction yes she didn't for Xi Jinping to acknowledge it this is. This has been a very embarrassing victory this gala victory has been very embarrassing Xi Jinping because it it it is rebuked not only to his approach to Taiwan but to Hong Kong and You know unless Beijing finds a way to modify its. It's policy in Hong Kong. This will go on feeding into the Taiwan political situation and and entrenching Taiwanese view of the mainland so so that puts Xi Jinping and rob difficult position of having to acknowledge that he is wrong. Whereas you know Xi Jinping thought invincible in and cannot make mistakes so so I think what we're looking at is what is the? What is the tone scale of the response given that China is not going to reverse its policy? Xi Jinping Champion has declared in the China dream. China's May he's making China great again. The reunification with Taiwan is they would put. It is a key part of that and the it's it's kind of shared for the hundredth anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic which is in two hundred forty nine so there is time on the other hand any any move to kind of slacken off the pressure on Taiwan would be viewed as weakness on the mainland. So I think what we'll see is a certain amount of low level harassment Rasmin so where China has had a number of successes in other in other Fields if you look sad Chinese see for example the kind of sub military pressure of water essentially armed fishing boats taking on for example Taiwanese fishing boats off yet news fishing boats there are fifteen very small countries. It's still recognize Taiwan As as the Republic of China we will see increasing pressure on them to switch to the People's People's Republic We might see some harassment of extensive trade and business relationships which exist between Taiwan and China neurotic Taiwanese unease doing business on the mainland. We've already seen a cocktail moment of tourism to Taiwan from the mainland. So you know there are a number of ways in which which Beijing can express its displeasure short of precipitating further confrontation Anita. How much is this actually high on? Its list given the fact that that China has has an awful lot more than it has to concentrate on the moment. We Got Hong Kong as you've mentioned which played directly into the hands of signing when we also have the US trade trade war we have in. China is busy with stuff can actually afford to put Taiwan on the back burner little. Yes I think it can. I think you're absolutely right. There are immediate crisis and there will go on being meet you crisis. It's you know th the economy's not going very well. There's some troubling signs in the financial sector that we might be in a in for a few bankruptcies and there's very limited trade deal is about to be signed the United States. I don't think China wants to jeopardize You know a kind of calming down of the. US China trade war. So do any move on. Taiwan would obviously do that. And so far we've seen or other muted reaction as you said. They accused diving when of dirty tricks describe. This is an anomaly. There was a wonderful phrase from Shinwari which said You know these temporary versus A. They're just a bubble in the tide of history. And you know she shouldn't count on this being a kind of permanent state of affairs so they're standing back and saying well you know these things happen but we can get over it and our long-term policy history is with this. That's that's interview that said we had trump making positive notes about Taiwan for quite a long time right from the beginning of his presidency. And yes you say that. The number of Countries now fifteen who who actively recognize Taiwan as a state and large companies such as airlines have now diverted their attention to to Beijing. But if you you have this state or this place which is allowed to just take along quietly. Is there a chance as a little bit of soft power will allow Taiwan to actually bring a few more countries back into the fold really curious you should say that because the because prog recently Decided to twin with with the Taipei rather than Beijing which is fanny kind of substantial. Move for the for the Czech Republic And and a bit of a rebuke. I think it was so one. Shouldn't underestimate the quiet soft. The effect of the quiet soft power of Taiwan inside China there are a number of of individual visitors from the mainland. Who made a point of going to Taiwan to observe the elections? Because you know they're curious about the only real substantial elections take place in the Chinese world and that will you know that one shouldn't underestimate the quiet effect of that It it's quite. It's quite the powerful thing Talking of quiet. Donald Trump has been unusually quiet on the subject of the Taiwanese elections but the people around him have been pretty robust in their supportive. Talion when so you know the US representative in in In Taipei met very quickly There have been you know it'd been in using language like no shared values of democracy and freedom the kind of thing honestly that one hadn't heard from trump for quite sometime but you're hearing from his officials officials and there have been hints from the US military that their commitment to the defensive Taiwanese as robust as ever last year saw a large number verve of quite significant arms sales and indications of military cooperation. So there were. There are lots of reasons China to sit fairly quiet Wyatt on this one. I think his Bell Hilton. Thank you very much indeed for joining his monocle. Twenty four still to come on. Today's globalist. We Northern Ireland to us. How to rebuild? When you haven't haven't had an organized government for three years I want to urge all political leaders and their teams to grab this opportunity and get back to work in multi party executive? Forget the language of win and lose. That's all to come on the globalist..

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