Hopkins, Cliff Kingsbury, Kyler Murray discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast


That's where that Hopkins. And the O and three coming out of the gate and usually that's a team that starts pretty fast. The Cardinals. And they die in the second half. This year is going to be different. Right. With cliff Kingsbury, he blows this team up like a balloon and then lets it go. And it runs out of air like halfway through the season. And then they're generally speaking terrible. The reason is because he doesn't modify what he's doing. His tactics enough throughout the course of the season. So teams, he's shocked him at the beginning of the year as really good record whether he was in college or the pros to start the year, but then falls off. Well, now he doesn't have Hopkins at the beginning of the season. They do play a difficult schedule, but if you look at this team from week 9 onwards, they literally play the number one most difficult schedule of any team in the NFL over the second half of the season. So you factor that with how they have a game. They do have the Mexico game and you factor that with what he does historically over that last half of the season. I mean, for them to exceed their 8 and a half wins, which is lower than what they've done in the past. For very justified. But they're going to have to win a ton of these games at the beginning of the season because they're going to struggle down the stretch. And you have the Kyler Murray the way he's finished the last two seasons and whether he can hold up for a 5 month year. And the really weird Hollywood Brown trade, we're just standing on that trade, by the way. Hundred and Hollywood Brown for number 23. It just seems steep, but I guess everybody's saying, there's such a run on receivers that felt like they had to get somebody, but I just didn't like it. Yeah, it made a lot more sense once it was announced that Deandre Hopkins was getting suspended because the context at the time we didn't know Hopkins was getting suspended and we said this is ridiculous. It definitely made more sense once that happened. And I still didn't love it, but I could justify why they did it. You love some of the draft teams this year. You enjoyed the jets draft, which I thought was a possible sign of the apocalypse. You enjoying a jet strap on social media. I didn't know what was happening. I kept waiting for the aliens to land, but they did a good job. They did a great job. I was looking at the draft in a little bit of a different context this year, which was, of course, I'm looking at draft value and who you're getting and whether you add more draft capital over the course of the draft or lose it, are you building towards the future? But the other thing that sometimes is useful and there's obviously going to be misses on any way you try to evaluate players, but you look at the wisdom of crowds approach, which is a lot of independent talent evaluators are now in the marketplace sharing their thoughts and opinions on who you should go what position where the top 50 guys top 100 guys rank all these different guys. There's a lot of people that are involved in that now with better data and more information than there's ever been in the past. And so you can compare the average ranking or slotting of these players that are expected to go in the draft with what an individual GM decides to do. So a certain guy might be mocked to go 50th overall. He might be the 50th best player in the draft and a GM who's sitting at pick number 17 decides to go ahead and take that player. Well, is that a reach or not? Well, based on the wisdom of crowds approach that is a reach because he was supposed to go much later in the draft. And then there are certain guys that fall and become values based upon the wisdom of crowds approaching. Generally speaking, I went back and looked at it, you know, two, three years down the road because that's what everybody cares. You can say whatever you want today, everybody can be an expert today because nobody knows what's actually going to happen. But two, three years from now, you're going to figure out which players that were reaches were busts and which players that felt late and we thought might be a steal actually worse deals. And this wisdom of crowds approach does have a pretty good track record of being more than average accurate on picking some of these guys. But I just want to say, was this your way to make me feel bad about coal strange? When I was just over it? In all fairness, you did bring this up. So you asked about this valuation approach. No, I did not mean to make you feel bad. And look, he could be a reach now, but ends up panning out down the road. And so that's what the whole goal is. It's about evaluating these kids and seeing what they could project to in the NFL and look, all of us in the media. I don't think we wish ill on any of these guys. We have our criticisms based on our evaluations in our process and our certain methodologies, but we are secretly rooting for everybody to be successful. That will make the league better. Nobody wants certain teams to whiff on picks and then them to struggle and be terrible. We'll talk about them whether they're good or they're bad, but it'll be interesting. He pans out. I've learned not to get too upset when they would ever happens with the Pats, especially the strange pick when Belichick said after we were pretty confident somebody was going to be taking him soon after. We want to get him. I think if you like the guy, you're going to take them. The only thing we can say with certainty that made no sense. Was the Viking.

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