Jimmy, Jeff Kilburg, Maura Important discussed on The Dan Proft Show
To expose the political fakers, fixers and takers to help you make sense of it. All That person is damn Croft, and this is the damn profit show. Welcome back to the Dan Cross Show. This is Jim Yury. Oh, sitting in and we have Jeff Kilburg, Who's the CEO of Cake and Financial? Also CNBC contributor. Jeff and I have done a lot of work together on CNBC. He's a futures trader, market analyst. And you guys, not from the Midwest. I'm not sure this joke broadens out to the whole country wide. But around here we everyone. You know how you can tell someone went to Notre Dame because they tell you within the 1st 10 seconds, So I'm just going to get that out there real quickly kept with the Notre Dame and did play football there for Lou Holtz. And we are gonna talk about sports a little bit in this talk to Jeff. But first we're gonna hit finances and I want you let's start really broad. And let's look out to 2021. What do you want here? Let me put it this way. Over the last eight months, One of the themes been pushing equity markets, particularly or any other market. You wanna talk about it? What are the themes that are pushing it today and then out in 2021? What's going to be pushing financial markets, particularly equities? Well, Jimmy always great to be out of my friend. Yes. Would you go back over a decade, talking markets, arguing flight debate but also give each other some jazz and having a hard time. That's what we do. We bust chops, but being here in Chicago, you know It is an extraordinary year. But what we've taken away from this year Jimmy and 2020 giving interesting. Let's go back. We'll think of the history here. What happened post recession post, 2000 and 2009 months. The great recession. We saw a lot of Passive index. If you're just long yesterday, if I were you did Okay. And now all of a sudden in 2020 things have really changed for all the reasons we talking about. We're not gonna talk about obviously having to wear their pandemic on hand. I think you know that one, right? Jimmy 2020 is that If you have proper exposure to certain sectors, I think that's been a winning recipe. Maura Important. Do you see the way from some of the sectors if you have not? Had exposure. Some such is that also has been part of the winning recipe. So we look at some of the sectors that continue to prevail. We talked about Tech tech still his number one. We run a lot of each model portfolios not to get too wonky there. But while we're trying to do is figure out Where there's relative strength, which secretary veal in strength and more important with secretary thing weakness, So we talk about text. We talk about medical devices. You talk about home construction. These all kind of some of the sectors we can unpack and talk about some of the specific names that are inside of these each. Yes, but we understand that energy has been one of the worst sector's year to date financials that really struggled and figure banks. They're finally get a little bit of optimism. But my point is Talking about 2020 That really sets up 2021 for Jimmy. We see a lot of the sectors we see. A lot of the themes that worked in Troy 20 persisted in 2021. If agree, or disagree with the federal intervention, the Federal Reserve and all the money that they have taken their balance sheet in a dramatic increase in size ability to help support market. Believe that or not, Jimmy, this is what we're going to get the embrace that you have to have the proper sector exposure to 22. I want to try and seek to produce Alfa. So did you just say that producing Alfa is attacking energy are too that you like a lot and let me put in a denim on that question to you talked about relative strength and tech has been I mean to call it. Relative strength is an understatement. I think that you know the stay at home trade the flock to the stocks with good balance. He trade just boosted those techniques of Yeah, they have relative momentum to everything else and relative strength. But at what point time does that become stretch? Meaning is there at some point, I'm going to be Ah, great rotation out of those names that were the pandemic names, and you know the six names I'm talking about Amazon Google's You guys can fill in the blanks into the broader market. The smaller stocks, the Russell well, look, I know you're much older than me, Jimmy. So sometimes You didn't take it now when I talk too long, so clearly, I went too long. And he did not. She does what you're running from that I don't even I don't think you even said anything. I was like, What do you want? One of my buying here? Kilberg Energy is not effectively on if you would have paid attention, But technology certainly is. So we look at the tech sector by large. You know, you can look at that broader exposure. You're looking xlk that that's what you have to like to talk about. But Tech? Certainly we're relatives say perspective is the number one on our models. Number one for a couple of years, and I think you bring up a great point, and this is really important for active investments understand what the market cycle has been doing. So when you see the thanks, Doc, we talking nauseam about the things that his Facebook it's Amazon. It's Apple. We took out Netflix folks we put in Microsoft and, of course, last week's Google, but those paying stocks Make up nearly 25% of the S and P 500. So where those stocks go, the market goes And on top of that this gets a little bit tricky, but their market cap waited. All that means is the apples of two Children. Our company Amazon, the to turn our company, so they are weighted Maura and that tech Vendex. If you look historically, going back the last five decades, Jimmy an equal ways Judgy longer term will prevail over market cap. Alicia, No matter what your strategy, your approach to the equity markets are, so I think it's this moment. Time you have to consider maybe dimension, summon exposure, not walking away from Tech by the gifted mission from exposure in some of the names that we're looking at are some of the chapters I should say we're looking to rotate into are some of the laggards of 2020 looking some industrial names looking somebody consumer cyclical name. They're really fell out of favor. We stock over 19 years the marketplace. So are you. Are you saying right now? That you believe 2021 Let me let me I'll tell you what I think you said, and you tell me if I'm right that 2021. There's going to be a movement toward like actual growth, the coming back online. Of the U. S economy. Now do you are you s Oh, I got that part right now. When you look at your thesis to I talked about Earlier in the show about how I believe one of the biggest themes is that government spending zero interest rate policy you just a ton of being propped up by the government keeping rates low. And forcing money into risk assets. Is that a broader theme that you agree with his well 100% of Cambridge United agreed on something, Jimmy, but yes, you're absolutely spot on it. It hurts me to even say your spot on but you hit the nail on the head, and that's the whole component..