Pederson, NHL, Connor Garland discussed on Sekeres & Price Show
Seem i saw you pen yesterday. Though for the athletic twenty twenty one off season moves. Where are they an are they worse. Let's get to that and then we'll get to the nhl news of the day in the poll question. Whether there's any compare and contrast here between fetched. Knockoff couturier pederson. And here's give us the crux. Tom of what you pay yesterday. Well so the crux is that at the athletic. I'm blessed to have access to dom la- citians model right and domeless asian projects odds and actually does gamble but his model is designed to adjudicate and handout based on a variety about puts including counting stats and the underlying data accounting for both and assigns a score to each player that's core becomes part of an output which then projects games and we've seen like this model has proven ear. After year in the regular season. He outperforms the betting markets and all other publicly available models. Right so look. It's never gonna be perfect instrument but it's extremely telling extremely useful and is the better tool for prognostication than ex guy on their barstool and in fact then even the vegas bookies right even the people paid and with with lots of skin in the game to prognosticate effectively donald performs them. So i plug in the canucks based on their roster last year. And this is a hypothetical world in which they made no changes in just ran back twenty twenty one roster and they're twenty twenty two roster as it sits on paper i plug these into the model and i compare and contrast and effectively unable to measure like how much better are there. Forwards according to dumbs model therefore forward group is worth an additional four wins almost over there forward group last season. that's massive that's tremendous improvement like huge. And i don't think that's a shock to anybody and it's not just that they brought in some good forward. Some guys like connor garland and jason dickinson. But the swing when you go from a player like jay beagle who domes model projects as being worth negative point. Eight wins over. The course of a full season to a positive contributor like dickinson like that swing is huge. And when you consider what. The connects iced in their bottom six last year. When you consider the opportunities that guys like matthew high moron and jimmy got when you consider that tyler mont played third-line minute phone of third-line minutes for them. You know the the massive advantage you get from just plugging in guys like garland and dickinson and vasily podkolzin. Even though the model doesn't really know what to do with the guy who has no nhl track record like when you plug in even neutral contributors to that group. The improvement is tremendous huge. A quantum step forward upfront. However on the back end and this is why to go position by position and sort of isolate what we hear on the back end. I mean how much have you guys heard. People worry about how the connects will fare in the wake of alex adler nate schmidt's departure in this market has been talked about it. All right able are hopeful and wants to believe that. Ackman larson is going to find his mojo again. Get his groove back. And that pullman is an upgrade as well and then of course more from rathbone boss certain savings. Anyway i mean i. It's not some. I think below that you think you're hearing a bit of it. Yeah i think there's people out there that a little. Tom suggests that that an average below average defense is arguably worse. Yeah yeah. I mean well..