Bloomberg News, Charlie Pelé, Nathan discussed on Bloomberg Markets


From Bloomberg world, headquarters I'm Charlie Pelé to down the S&P nez stank all in the red right now. We're looking at an 8 tenths of 1% drop on the S&P 500 Index down 32 points now to 37 27, the Dow just below 32,000 right now 31,999 down a 148 points or by 5 tenths of 1% and NASDAQ is down a 119 a drop there of 1.1%. Ten year yield 4.13% with a two year yielding 4.68%. The Dow the S&P NASDAQ all remain in the red. Some of the other stories that we are following for you today, of course, we've got San Francisco based stripe, one of the world's most valuable startups announcing more than 1000 job cuts as it seeks to rein in costs ahead of any economic downturn. This according to an email to staff that was seen by Bloomberg news. Again recapping stocks lore, S&P 500 Index down 30, a drop now of 8 tenths of 1%. I'm Charlie peloton that is a Bloomberg business flash. Charlie, thank you so much. This is Bloomberg markets. We're recording reporting whatever you want to call it from the interactive broker studio, Paul Sweeney. Reported, they are out, I guess. I tried Nathan. Terrifying. I really, really tried. Creating Nathan Hager, filling in on a really exciting day, Nathan. This is post fed, you're seeing a very strange reaction in the stock market. It feels like there isn't really a consensus on whether or not the terminal rate could go much, much higher as a chairman Powell is certainly suggesting in his press conference ever less bonds are selling across the spectrum or across maturities. There's a lot to digest here and when we have this kind of conundrum of where do we even start? There's only one person to bring into the conversation. That of course is Liz McCormick. She's our chief markets correspondent on the FX and rate space, writing a pretty interesting story about how the fed is still enemy number one for a lot of these Wall Street traders, Liz, thank you as always for joining us, it's hard to pick a place to start because there's so much going on here, but if 5% is no longer the terminal rate in March of 2023, as was priced in going into the meeting, how high can we go? Yeah, boy, it's like a brain spinning time, right? I think all bets are off now. How was just so crystal clear like, hey, the data we saw since last meeting means our rates that we're going to project are higher, and so the market is pricing, the terminal rate isn't interesting out to June. It's got about 5.2 ish now, right? So, and you don't see barely any cuts by the end of the year. So that's like fed higher, keeps going higher and is very slow to cut rates. So that's kind of a double problem for bond investors, right? High rates and sticky high rates. Yeah, it keeps getting pushed back and back and back. And now we're seeing the inversion on the twos ten year at 55 basis points. I'm looking at a chart on it where it's like a spread that we're not we haven't seen since the early days of the Reagan administration. It makes you wonder how much further the idea of long and deep recession could be going in the bond market. Well, yeah, that's totally interesting. And I think, you know, I have a Jersey in our Bloomberg. The I group had a note saying, you know, that inversion is going to go further, right? Beyond these like already like you're saying historic levels. And with the feds in a bind, right? I mean, Powell said yesterday, the kind of path to a soft landing is getting worse, but their backs to the wall with inflation high. So yeah, Nathan, it could be that they have to go so far and the recession may be a worse recession than it would have been, right? Because the system, look at the housing market. Luckily, I'm not buying a house now, but for your trades to over 7%. Liz, I asked this question to I think a source of yours actually Danielle dimartino booth who is a favorite of our show. We talked a little bit about this comment that chairman Powell had made in his press conference. He said, well, the risk of over tightening is actually perhaps not that bad and I'm paraphrasing, of course, but he says we can always take a U turn. We can always kind of use the tools in our toolbox and cut rates. If we go too far. But Liz, in an environment where the Federal Reserve has gotten a lot of scrutiny for using those rates. And for quantitative easing as well, is there perhaps some hurdles for chairman Powell to actually cut rates when the time comes? Yeah, I mean, you're right. It's a good point. And I really like Danielle, like you said, too. But yeah, I mean, it's not so easy, right? He seemed to say, well, now, and he said in the past, it was vice versa, but now like you said, he said the risks are, you know, we let inflation stay too long. And that's a problem. So we can always cut rates, but you're right. You know, they're in a situation where it may not be that easy, especially, you know, creating them to kind of redeploy QE. There's a lot of political pushback against that, right? So I don't think he's got it too easy on either way, you know? Yeah, if they turn around too soon and if they were to pivot, which they definitely didn't yesterday and they let inflation get too bad, then they got to double down and then how you could again. But I think you're right that it may not be too easy if they crush this economy just to quickly revive it. So could things get worse before they get better next year for the fed Liz? Well, I think sadly we should all not look at our retirement accounts now. I think it's going to get worse for everything. Stocks are obviously taking it on the chin, the bond markets down, we've had that 60 40. There was no place to hide in the last year or two. And if the fed, we've got two CPI reports before their next meeting. If they're still strong, I mean, nothing will change as far as them seeming hawkish. So I think rates could go higher. This kind of 60, 40 paying could last and I'm not an equity analyst. I'm just saying, you know, what I see on the screens, but yeah, and you know, that's what they need, even though senators like Elizabeth Warren are saying we don't want too much pain, but Powell saying, sadly, we're going to have to have some pain for the American people. Otherwise, the pain could be worse if we have inflation for years and years entrenched. Liz 30 seconds here, the bull case for the dollar does it turn around or does it decrease the minute there is actually some sort of stalling out on the terminal rate. Well, wow, the bull case for the dollar, which was maybe seeming to kind of falter a little. It just got supercharged, right? But I think if the terminal rate keeps getting pushed higher and you have other central banks like the B of B today saying, hey, pull back your peak rates, you've got this divergence. So I think for now, there's not a lot to stop the dollar higher unless we get like two really soft CPIs, which I'm not predicting. Certainly something to watch. Liz McCormick our chief global macro markets correspondent. We thank you, as always, really the one and only name you have to ask when this kind of wonkiness takes place not

Coming up next