Two Percent, One One Percent, Twenty Percent discussed on The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe


Be different they will tend to go up and go down together so that means their entire investment could could crash at the same time and they think that they do that because it's simple. It's it's easier to put them to wrap their head around and they all these things. I'm going to pick these five stocks as they're all tracking together you. You know they sort of intuitively do that. When it's the opposite of what they do and also it may be counterintuitive to pick two different stocks that seem to to be working against each other like how am i going to make money if my stock goes up this other one's gonna go down but they don't realize that that's a hedge. That's what you want. You know if you if you have have that then you're stocks will slowly rise with the increase of the market but it'll average out but if you are trying to make money by having everything go up up at once you're also creating the probability that everything will go down at once so the risk versus benefit isn't there the potential for making a lot of money is a lot less than the potential for losing money so it's what you're better off. Having a balanced portfolio by people intuitively do not do that so in fact. If you picked your stocks at random it would be it would be more balanced than what people <unk> untrained. You're not experts would intuitively do okay all veins. That's the most accurate estimates to date indicates that earth like planets orbiting around sun like stars in the goldilocks zone should occur on average in one out of every ten thousand thousand stars is the fiction so that's three criteria here right there. It has to be an earth like planet earth like so they had to operationally define that that had to be within certain parameters size and and mass <hes> and then in in the goldilocks zone had to be within a certain distance the star and have a year between so many days and other days so all things had to average out to specific parameters earth like not identical tickle but just within reasonable parameters earth and also be orbiting around a sun like star to that eliminates all of the red dwarfs right yeah all the stars ours is not like our own sun so you know hoping the waiting with all of those criteria you would your whittling down many but actually that's that it's one in every four stars well more love. How could it be that common because that's what they calculated. It would be one in every four stars would be an earthquake the planet around a sun like well. How much are they lady. Accent best. Estimate today is the best estimate today based by all of the exoplanets that we've gathered so far wow aw one in four yeah i was surprised wow yeah universe must be tissue plug added to the drake equation to see what comes out right at number one in four orb was the was the best estimate but they also give the error bars. You know they range it could be anywhere from one in every two stars two one in every thirty three stars out three threes extreme <hes> yeah so two to thirty three but they said like the would be the peak of that system curve yeah. That's my mind was going the other direction thing yeah. It'd be a much higher numbers. That's funny. That's higher than i was thinking. It'd be like one one percent two percent one one hundred ten thousand surprise me too. I mean i really low balled it to make sure it was clearly fiction yeah yeah but <hes> i would have thought maybe around something like one to two percent but yeah one four. That's that's pretty darn good twenty percent amazing. I hope that's true incred. I never would have imagined so yeah but how how can we gather more data that estimate gets more and more accurate but i doubt it's going to change by an order of magnitude i mean i think that's probably pretty close to where it's going to settle in cool. It's great. That's great is that we've collected enough data on exo planets. We could start to do these kind of statistical analysis. You know i was when we first started discovering hot jupiters..

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