Van Bor, Sola, Twenty Twenty discussed on John Batchelor


Van Bor, I thought well, this is a preliminary of prediction, they make a community wide have a panel of Sola scientists supposedly including everybody in the business the puts together a prediction last time. They couldn't agree. So they had two different predictions. You can see on live graph agreeing to different green lines. So I said, well, you know, sometime in about six months, I should see it prediction. Well to this month has been a prediction, and I'm looking at the same. You know, what maybe there's real disagreement and uncertainty within that science community. Now, this we last week. They did put out some people on the panel put out a prediction saying. Saying that they have confidence quote, the coming cycles should break the trend of weakening solar activity seen in the past four cycles. So they're predicting this is the people who made this announcement. At prediction panel saying, yes, there will be a soul cycle, and it will be stronger than we've seen. Well, there's several problems with that one. They didn't announce a new curve the next cycle, which is what these predictions normally go for. They didn't have a big press release announcement. And this doesn't match not only what I know a lot of the science community believes. But it doesn't match what I've seen the last four cycles would not a friend of weakening solar activity, the three previous cycles had shown an increase in actively. Which is why one of the oh seven predictions for the just past cycle wasn't high wants a lot of sell the scientists believe that that trend of increasing activity was continue. So I can't quite make much of this prediction that it might be. It's government paid panel. And they're playing politics. Again, what I see coming out of all this is that the soul of science community is very uncertain. And a lot of them actually believe we might be heading towards a grand minimum. But that's a really risky prediction. And they don't wanna make that by twenty twenty three. What's the date for the minimum minimum? According to the red curve. They got right now is in the minimum now. And they're saying the minimum is going to go till twenty twenty three that's three and a half years. There's never been a minimum net law. And so that's a very intriguing thing. That means we start seeing a ramp up until twenty twenty four almost half a decade from now you've minimum this fall. So that's just to me that they want to wait a bit before they make any kind of commitment to a prediction because they really don't know what's going to happen and one of the options that a lot of them do think might happen. And this is not a consensus is that any two grand minimal. Grand minimum is where you have no solar cycle. No significant sunspots for literally decades and decades has no solar cycle anymore. And the last time that happened was in the sixteen hundreds correspondent of the little ice age. What you had failed crops and famines and summers that could not exist. And so this is a significant question, and we don't know what's going to happen. I will tell you. There are two considerations. If this happens, you'll have to possible possibilities that will be profound. I, of course, scientists will have a chance to study this with the right tools.

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