Dan Jurgen, Jay Powell, Joanne Feeney discussed on Bloomberg Wall Street Week


With other NATO allies to talk about all those Russian troops massing on the Ukraine border And the party's basically agreed to disagree at least for now Leaving prospects of a further invasion still up in the air which was part but only part of what drove oil prices up this week Here's IHS market share Dan Jurgen There's geopolitical anxiety feeding into the market on top of a tightening market that's coming with economic rebound Three big banks reported their earnings at the end of the week there's something about mixed bags JPMorgan reported record profits but disappointed a bit on trading and is adding to its cost City also came up short on trading in the midst of a major restructuring there And Wells Fargo said it's tepid loan growth in the fourth quarter should pick up this year Going beyond the banks the markets overall well they had a volatile week responding to the high inflation numbers the low retail sales numbers on Friday And the Tesla fed chair Jay Powell that reducing monetary policy support is now a certainty Stocks fell for the second week in a row with the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both about three tenths of a percent While yields on the ten year climbed a 125 basis points ending the week at 1.78 that's the highest level since the pandemic hit To put this rather confusing week in perspective we welcome now bob diamond He's Atlas merchant capital founding partner in CEO and Joanne Feeney advisers capital management partner and portfolio manager So Joanne let me start with you Respect to equities in particular typically when the interest rates are going up that's not necessarily something all equities like The equities respond that way this week You know David and they've responded that way since folate fall When I think it became finally clear to investors that interest rates would have to go up given a level of inflation we're seeing the tightness in the labor markets And the slowness with which supply is coming back online And so yeah we certainly saw evaluations come back and some come down in some places more than others And we just don't know for how long that's going to go on which points to that big question that investors always face You try to time this market where you just hold on for the long haul So bob what about the fed trying to time bringing it back down again How risky is that Because the track record on the so called self landing is not a great one So David we talked about this When we talked in December the fed needs to begin moving As of today there's still very very easy ultra easy I would call it The balance sheet is still expanding There's still almost a 100 billion in security purchases each month And I think it's time that they get on with it So I think the sooner they begin this process of easing into an economy that has recovered and is growing and has a very very tight labor market the better At the same time we've got oma cron out there You've got the COVID virus And so you can't quite know where the economy is going So how big a risk is it that so called policy mistake stomping on the great break too fast and leading to dare I say it a recession Listen it is everyone has said who's been on already This is tricky It's not 5 minute rice to time this But I think the biggest mistake that the fed could make would be to delay too long beginning to get to neutral And I think David we've talked about this before and Joanne and I have talked about this But when the fed goes from ultra easy to neutral it's usually fine for the markets That's been the history We're not even close to neutral yet So when I say begin the actions what I'm talking about is getting closer to neutral If you look at the futures markets then they're expecting fed funds Not this year but at the end of 2023 fed funds will be one and a half to one and three quarters Neutral is maybe 2% two and a half percent And I would just bring up you know it kind of ages me and my experience on Wall Street but if you look at the experience in the early 80s when Volker had to really put the brakes on a short rate got to 15 to 20% So if we talk about getting short rates overnight fed funds back to 2% or two and a half percent I think that's what we should be aiming for You know and to that point bob you put it really in good context This is not the 80s right Short rates heading to 15% is very unlikely for that to be in our future So we're really looking at short rates in the two ish plus percent range And also this is a very different economy for where we were back then in the 70s and 80s when we had to deal with those oil embargoes and the slowdown in production This time the fed and least has a tailwind helping solving inflation problem in that more supply is going to be coming back online this year Just look at the semiconductor industry which is bringing new factories up and running and we'll be putting out chips starting midyear And that's going to help by bringing up supply that'll help close that gap between consumer demand which is incredibly strong and the gap in supply that we've been suffering That's what also helped to bring down inflation even as those interest rates go off Bob diamond and Joan fini will be staying with us as we turn to the specifics of the tech sector and.

Coming up next