David Coletta, Donald Trump, Jordan Heath Rawlings discussed on The Big Story

The Big Story


I'm Jordan heath Rawlings. And this is the big story. David Coletta is the of Abacus data one of Canada's leading polling firms. So David how many polls am I going to hear about between now and Tober twenty-first? You're going to hear a lot of polls. And it's not just going to be the horse race polls that tell us, you know, which party ahead or which is behind, but you're gonna get, you know, hundreds of polls that look at issues, and what we think of the leaders and how Canadians feeling about the economy. There's going to be, you know, election years, whether you like it or not I think you're gonna get a lot of polling this year. If you look at the past four or five elections, the number of polls only gone up, and I think that's going to be the case this year as well. We're going to see a lot of polling in part because I think there's a there's a fascination with polls. I think both media enjoy reporting them. It helps them understand the narrative. I think there's a lot of interest in the consumption of polls your. Listeners even if they don't wanna admit they like polls, they are fascinated by what their neighbors think of things. But I also think we're headed into an election that's likely to be very competitive, and the not kind of environment, you often see more polling firms getting involved and trying to understand the pulse of the country where things might be going without asking you to speak to Abacus data in particular or any of your competitors. 'cause I know it is a pretty crowded field. What is in general when you sort of entered this stage of a race? And the polls start getting ratcheted up. What is the signal to noise ratio in terms of all the polls that are out there? How many of them are ones that paint a good picture for us versus sort of ones? That are flash polls that we should probably not put too much stock in any one individual pool doesn't really carry much weight. Whether it is an Abacus poll or not, and I think what we what sometimes for for a consumer of polls. Is you get different signals as you said that that really is noise that a one or two point lead for one party. Or another or change of one or two points from one week to the next or even a difference of really a picture between two poles doesn't really tell us all that much because there's margin of air built into all of these surveys. There is a a level of imprecision in polls. I think one of the the challenge is polling firms face is that the expectations of how accurate we can be has gone up. And that means there's an expectation that, you know, if we say that the liberals are thirty seven percent that few days before the election, and they don't get thirty seven percent. That's a failure of the polls. So given all of that. I think, you know, my best advice to listeners and consumers of of all the polls are boat to you're gonna vote to be dated with is to take a step back and say, what are the trends? Looking like if you look at three or four different polls. Do we see that the liberals are going up or the conservatives are going up or the end EP gaining some momentum as opposed to what one single? Tells us because because first of all again, there's that that Arab built-in. But another reason is as we get closer to the election. The polls should get somewhat more accurate, and the reason is because voters are become more firm in their view road one week to the next so much happens in politics so much happens in the world that shifts people's views that that anyone snapshot may not actually be an accurate snapshot a week from now, and it's always remember that that we live in a world where Donald Trump says something one day, it becomes the most important story that day and the very next day. He said something else that completely changes it or a report comes out that says climate change is far more serious than we ever thought or GM closes plant in Oshawa..

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