Bears, Atlanta, Twitter discussed on ESPN Chicago 1000 - WMVP Show
He is the one the only the all knowing it. Todd for men check out his great podcast about the board podcast and make sure you follow him and follow him on Twitter. I know most of you do at Todd Fermin. What's up, buddy? Hey, gentlemen, how you guys doing this morning? Everybody's doing well, you know, I mean, look, the bear stink. We know it. We're gonna try to make some money, though. I don't. I don't like betting them most weeks. I for some strange reason. I did bet them that money night game a couple of weeks ago. As the home dog in prime time against the Vikings that didn't work out so well. Nothing's worked out so well for this franchise. I'll stay away, but I always like to start with our beloved bears a Zey three point favorite. Just the second time all your tie that there a favorite. I know it's the lines, but my God should this bears offense being way It should be that should they be laying points that anybody? That's the question? It's a difficult proposition. But when you look at Detroit, not exactly the healthiest bunch by any stretch of the imagination, still trying to figure out when call Kenny Golladay might actually get back on the field. Give Matthew Stafford assembling of a vertical passing game. You mentioned the Bears and how this is more less uncharted territory for this team laying points. What's more interesting about this game, guys? As you saw the Bears actually open as a six point favorite in this particular matchup, this number got back down to a field goal. I think you're gonna actually see some support on the Bears in this spot at minus three. Let's not ignore the revenge scenario from week one with a lion's basically crumbled late in that game. It's a travesty led to come back tough game to try and handicap but of weather holds off. I think going over 45 makes a bit of sense, Okay? And does the new coaching Shane Or does the new coach does the coaching change? Play into the angles at all when handicap in this game, because if you look at the data for about the last 20 years that pop seems to be real in that first game following a coaching change mid season time, you definitely appear to get that one game bump. I don't think it's sustainable from now through the end of the season and gonna catapult the Bears for five and six to attend in six playoff team. By any stretch of the imagination, But players typically will go out there and perform at a slightly higher level. You have some strong against the spread trends that if you want to really parse the room, you can use that it to make a compelling case. The one thing that I worry about here's Detroit has a little bit of extra rest coming off of their embarrassment. And they're a team that also is trying to figure out what life looks like without Matt Patricia on the sidelines, confirming at Todd Furman on Twitter, the bet the board podcast is we talk about the lines for weak number. 13. You've got a lot of intra division home dogs, at least three of them. Those of cashed at a pretty high rate this year about 70%. That's really how you love that. How about road dogs? Though I've noticed this to the stat is about 57, a half percent of the time through 12 weeks. The road dogs are covering. Is that something to do with crazy 2020 and no fans? Why do you think that is time? I think it's definitely a big part of it. When you talk about eliminating our neutralizing home field advantage in most of these buildings. It's a lot easier for teams to go out on the road, communicate with one another and not take a step back from an offensive standpoint. Typically you talk to players and you read some of their comments in quotes. The home defense normally gets a faster jump when they have the fans working in their favor allowed building. The offense is unable to communicate on that offensive line of scrimmage, and it changes the dynamic a little bit. So in my opinion, that's part of the reason we've seen road teams perform a little better, but we even started to see a trend last year were road teams were a little bit undervalued in the grand scheme of things not quite to the level we're seeing now, but home field advantage that we've always talked about being worth of full field goal. You run some of the numbers this season. It's much closer to one point, if not needing to be factored in whatsoever. Is the performance under Raheem Morris. The real deal for Atlanta here and should you take the field goal and say Go ahead against New Orleans at home? Well, interestingly enough, all when you look at Atlanta their performance last week against the readers definitely open some eyes. I think that I had much to do with Vegas. Quite honestly, as it did anything. Atlanta did exceptionally well. Forcing a variety of turnovers. You look at the matchup York between these two teams when New Orleans hosted Atlanta 24 9 game that was 10 9 at the half. Atlanta really couldn't do a whole lot to get the ball moving consistently, and that had to do with their protection issues for Matt Ryan. I'm not sure those necessarily get sick. When you talk about a quick turn time for teams within the division on a rivalry match up like this. You typically want to side with the team that was beating the first time around. I'm right there with you. I think the home underdog is live. You're able to grab a field goal. Have no problem backing the Falcons on Sunday. Yeah, they think they segment right eight times. I mean, that looks like the Bears offense in the second half of that game, Aidan score, it was embarrassing. The Dolphins have been one of the best moneymakers in the NFL. If you've been betting them this year, Todd I think a lot of people are impressed with Brian floors. They're tied with Steelers 83 against the number. Big spread. They gotta cover this weekend, but they're at home against the Bangles. Yurko always likes these. You know, Northern teams traveling down south, although the weather's been pretty mild everywhere. What do we think about the Dolphins asking till a 11 points against the Bangles this week? I think it's a big ask to be quite honest..