Illinois, Cook County, GOP discussed on Chicago's Afternoon News
You're listening to Chicago's afternoon news here on 7 20. W G, and I was telling you about this story that I was reading in the from the Center for Illinois Politics. A contributing editor is Jeremy Gantz and he's wrote The story called Behind Illinois's Blue Facade. Growing Partisan Polarization. Jamie are Jeremy. Welcome to W. G. N Thanks for having me. Yeah, I love this story. I mean, I've been I've been here since 1984. I was just talking about the results from Don Clark nets and Jim Edgar with the crew here a little bit earlier. Um, but I have to tell you, I mean, I'm surprised by what I read. It's sort of like the boiling frog. Maybe because It's been happening slowly. And you know, I mean, I can go back to the days when Republican presidential candidates could contend and win when there were Republican candidates who could contend and win and cook County. Not very many of them. And when they were down state Democrats, but it looks as if that's all gone. Yeah, And what I want to do with this piece was really kind of look back over the last decade and try toe suss out trends that maybe you're a little behind the big headline numbers. I mean, Hey, Illinois has this clear reputation of the blue state and for good reason that the last three presidential elections going back to 2012 or one by a Democrat by 17 points, But if you look behind that Number. You don't actually see some real ships going on geographically, you know, across the state from basically The north northern half with Cook County in the collar collar town. He's going bluer, deeper shade of blue and then the southern half of the state getting redder and redder and I was really struck by out. How it was seems like that. Wait in the deep south part of the state south of Champagne. Toni, it's It's almost an accelerating trend since 2012 If you look at it at a county like Gallatin, you know they went 50% for Mitt Romney in 2012. Now Trump just won that county with 76%. Yeah, and I was talking earlier with the crowd about the fact that that's the only County that Jim Edgar lost 1994 which was reviewing it a surprise to me, I just would have assumed that next was able to win Cook County, but she did not. Um and so, but, you know, that would have been these. This talk of Seceding from the state or splitting the state up. You know what? I kind of laugh at that stuff because it's kind of ridiculous or silly. It's not serious, but when you when you look at these Numbers and how truly divided the state is. It's a little more logical than I was giving it credit for. Yeah, It's really striking the geographical divide, and I just didn't realize how. How dramatic it is. Um, it seems like you know, I think in that way. What? We're seeing them on the way over. These last couple of cycles really mirrors What Seems to be happening with the GOP nationally that it's becoming more of a of a rural party. You know, it used to have more suburban support, at least among some voters, and that that seems to be Declining and that trend. I think it's important to note three dates. Trump, you know, I guess. There was a part of me that maybe thought, Well, you you wouldn't see the continued trend of these looks more Southerner like County's quite so dramatically in the red column, but you know 2016 verses 2020 20, but it seems to be a priest steady. At least in terms of the presidential results. There used to be that southern Illinois. I've lost the congressman's name. Now. I remember talking to him so many times he ran against George Ryan for governor. Um, shoot Kong Democratic Congressman Far southern Illinois. I'll come up with it. Pollard know Glenn Poshard, right? Glenn Poshard and but he represented far Southern Illinois. He was a Democrat. I mean, he was so far south. He told me he would fly. Out of Memphis when he had to go to Washington. But again, a Democratic representative, that's just not gonna happen today. Right, And I think that speaks to you know, I think wait out in some of the Southern counties you had you had any more union households back when there's more mind going on. Obviously, that's still in terms of the Union of this is still part of the democratic coalition. But, um with they think that shift, um economic shifts going on down there? Um, people, and I think we've had started even during sort of the Reagan Democrat aura That seems to be really picking up people who maybe would have been in the Democratic Party 30 years ago. 35 years of power. You seem to be training really more toward becoming loyal GOP voters. So you think that's where the flip started with Reagan in 1980? Well, I think I think in terms of the national the trends of the presidential politics Yeah. I mean, I think that Reagan was pretty good at picking off the union households and Uh, you know, frankly, Trump has has been able to do that to people. That kind of disaffected from the with the status quo. And maybe the Democratic Party. Uh and, uh, yeah, I think that you know, over the same period time you've just seen the labor movement shrank. So, uh, people who are maybe you're not doing so well, economically are you know, ending up more likely to vote for the GOP? It's what Biden said before the 2016 convention, he said, You know, the Democrats Aren't speaking to the regular people these days of the people who are out of work or the people who, you know, have machine jobs and things like that. So you said that Northern Illinois tends to be blue, but it's really more the Northeast quarter of the state right at best, what's happening in the northwest quarter of the state? Yeah, that was finished. Rubio, who? I guess sometimes with us Well, and I'm still kind of crossing through this. But basically, you know, in 2012, which is when Barack Obama was re elected, he won most of the counties in northwest Illinois. So basically the all the counties come around. Was where the quad cities are stretching up to the Wisconsin Porter can, um, over the last two cycles in 2016 and 2020. Um Clinton and brighten really only 11 of those counties and, um, the county that actually contains the quad city there. Um so I'm not sure it seems like that probably had to do with the kind of Obama hometown advantage. Looks that annoying except, um, but I feel like I also totally had to do with the sort of increasingly in a rural urban divide the party. So, um I'm sorry. Don't mean to interrupt your me Yeah, I feel okay s.