Cities States, Influenza, Brexit discussed on Remainiacs - the Brexit Podcast


Years ago that it doesn't matter if the economy Contracts and people lose their jobs because brexit is worth it You know there are some things that are more important than the economy and it's precisely the same people now saying there's nothing more important than the economy. I resent the source. But that's by the by the the main problem with it is. That is a false dichotomy again. You know we can know instinctively predict tax going to happen. Why is going to happen? It's really wet finger up in the ED time. The only thing we can go to is historical evidence from previous similar situations if you look at the data from the influenza pandemic in nine thousand eight hundred to nine hundred nineteen it. Conclusively shows that the Cities States nations that closed down sharpest and stayed closed. Longest bounced back the quickest there. There are no counterfactual examples. Today's this states that took long to close the cities that took long to lock down and then try to come out too. Early ended up paying heavier economic price. So it's a I. I called to me to say you're either protecting people or the economy because actually evidence says that the same action protects both. That's the first thing the second thing is that there is a a real thin end of the wedge argument here if you start saying that in the face of present imminent real danger. There is an economic balance to be had. You are basically relegating. The sanctity of your citizens lives two. Second-place you're accepting the argument where economic units. And that sometimes you have to sacrifice a few people in order but but the moment you take that away from the abstract and you make it you make it specific so if you say to someone okay so how many people are in your extended family twenty five peaks three to die now for the opportunity for the other twenty two of you to possibly have a bit more disposable income in ten years to come but then it becomes a much more difficult. No of course I'm a terribly hyperbole to to to explain a point you know. There is no economic sense in Palliative. Care none at all it would literally the only economic sense would be to leave people to die with no palliative care. You can't you can't begin to make sorts of calculations it's it's a route to unsuitability thought resent INARA. I think you'll finding the wrong. The economy it's about having more disposable income it's the economy is people and the economy is also a health issue and there are for example. There's a there's a university Bristol Research. It's saying the tipping point six point four percent decline and you'll reducing life expected say average of three months hits the hardest another study which shows a one percent full employment tends to cause a a two percent increase in chronic illness especially mental health. You've cise stress pool diets suicide domestic abuse delayed seeking medical help. Some of these religions recessions some of these devices specifically related to the mark down but there is a theory cones. A point in its lobby wants to do too early but that does this has to be a consideration. It's not as it's not lives versus money you know the economy is about people's lives and people you know does has to. I'm not suggesting that I never suggested the economy should stay. You know. We should stay lockdown forever endeavor or until there is a vaccine options. There is a balance there is a balance. There is an exit strategy to be found from this. All I'm saying is that there is a knee-jerk reaction that says. Well you know the longer. We're locked down the more difficult it will be to bounce back economically and it's simply historically not true. The will actually open for opening up at the right moment. Is What's needed for the economy to bounce but the longer it goes on you. More companies collapsed beyond repair. Of course the longer in the worst becomes again as I said. Historical data does not bear that out that the cities in the states that tried to open earlier ended up having much longer tail to the economic damage that the influenza pandemic did so I didn't I didn't have over solutions but only I'm saying is there's a there's a simplistic way of going. Well Okay we're GONNA have to to stop the lockdown at some point because otherwise the economy is going to collapse and it could be precisely that sort of thinking that results in the economy collapsing. So of course there's a balance I'm just not sure it's as straightforward as you know. How many old people do we save.

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