China, Hong Kong, Ukraine discussed on Monocle 24: The Globalist


Of course we can see that the conflict in Ukraine is having economic consequences across the world. But one particular Chinese tycoon is feeling it to pretty sharply. Yes, absolutely. We saw this incredible super spike event in nickel futures this week up by 250%. It's the biggest rise we've ever seen and essentially what happened was sort of a rising prices as a result of the Russia, the Russia and Ukraine conflict. We saw this sort of mass closing out of positions and particularly this one Chinese type nickel tycoon who closed out his positions. He has exposure to something like a 100,000 tons of nickel, could it even be larger? And something like 2 billion $200 million of daily losses there. So it is really a sort of extraordinary event and lots of questions about whether or not this could be similar to the arcas incident, which of course forced the liquidation of Bill hwang's firm. It looks so far. It's been relatively contained, but certainly China is asking some of its banks. Some of its financial and t-shirts to review its exposure to lots of these sort of derivative and commodity products. Absolutely. And the FT has a big piece on this exposure and the market turmoil that the war and the subsequent sanctions of unleashed. Absolutely, I think that the story doesn't excellent job of really showing the extent to which China is in this very, very difficult position. Of course, it's signed it's no limit partnership earlier. This year. But now, of course, there are these extraordinary reputation on economic costs to the conflict. It's under enormous amount of pressure because China of course is a huge the biggest importer of oil around the world. But also has this issue of food security, so it is a massive importer of food and agricultural commodities as to. And these concerns about food shortages and security and food security issues has really overshadowed the MPC conferences which should be going on this week in China and typically these are the theosis of all of China's successes, but instead focus very much on all of these risks and of course include this lower economic target 5.5%, which is the lowest that we've seen in about 30 years. So we really are sort of seeing Xi Jinping and Beijing sort of struggling to weigh up these two different challenges. And of course, it doesn't just stop with Mainland China. The territories are affected too, bankers are abandoning Hong Kong. Yes, I think in Hong Kong, what we're really seeing sort of after 25 years of Beijing rule protest, the erosion of civil liberties and now of course the pandemic, which has been heavily criticized for its management, really taking a toll on the city sort of collective psyche, we seeing these sort of exodus of folks across all sorts of like walks of life in Hong Kong, but among those bankers, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Wells Fargo in particular, all seeing some departures recently and about a half of banks and asset managers are considering moving their employees out Hong Kong. I think there has been this extraordinary whiplash in Hong Kong because of the sort of policies and trying to respond to the pandemic. Just earlier this year, we had about ten cases a day. And now we're seeing something like 60,050 thousand cases. And the pandemic responses in some ways sort of the apotheosis of this feeling of powerlessness that many Hong Kong have felt. You know, hospitals are overwhelmed. There is mass compulsory testing, these very bleak quarantine camp situations. And it really is sort of weighing, I think, on its residents. And finally, a very quick look at Europe trying to ditch Russian oil and gas. Yes, a really extraordinary story. I mean, of course, one thing that the Russian Ukrainian conflict has highlighted is the extraordinary weaponization of the modern financial system, and it is really exposed some of the cracks of the net zero targets that many Western countries have set, of course, this desire to move away from coal gas oil imports from Russia has added to pressure for these countries to accelerate the energy transition, particularly in Europe as energy prices are through the roof. And that has exposed that some of these countries in Europe are not particularly prepared, actually, to move to alternative sources of energy, we may likely see the uptick in sort of non Russian use of fossil fuels in the meantime, though of course there will be sort of this move into solar wind nuclear that type of thing. But we spend in Europe we spend about 1 billion a day on importing coal gas and oil from Russia. So it is an extraordinary shift that European countries will have to engineer over the next month or two months. Rebecca, thank you very much indeed. That was Bloomberg's Rebecca Chung Wilkins. And you're with the globalist on monocle 24. Now, Ukrainian singer jamala won the 2016 Eurovision Song Contest, with a powerful and haunting ballad called 1944. The personal song spoke about the deportation of Crimean Tatars in Ukraine in 1944, including her own great grandmother. The singer had to flee the country and is now in Istanbul. She's also delivered an emotional performance of 1944 at the German national finals for Eurovision this week. She's been speaking to Monaco's Fernando Augusta Pacheco. In my sister's house, but I can say that I'm in safe place because in this time my husband in Ukraine, my husband's father in Ukraine, all my tea when you crane, oh my musical band in Ukraine. And that's why I'm not feel safety. The word caught us like a millions of other Ukrainians by surprise at 5 firm on the 20 4th of February and of course we followed the media reports with different predictions, but somehow we didn't believe that till the end that's such a horror could even happen in 20 century in the middle of Europe. The vocation of children was decided on the same day after the forest bombing of cave. We were in three times in a bomb shelters with my kids. And to be honest, we had only 5 minutes to pack. And I grabbed our documents to address the kids and I tried not to panic and even made a joke about whether to take the Eurovision Song Contest toward or not, but of course I took nothing. Make sure it was the same for most of the cranial mothers who grabbed the kids and ran.

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