Mccain, Barack Obama, Electoral College discussed on Why Is This Happening? with Chris Hayes
It's definitely true. That in the arrogant these. These changes are small and it's also true that there are fewer people are a lot more partisan than they were before but twenty twelve. Wasn't that long ago. I think that if obama was able to arrest this kind of development it should be possible to go back. I don't think you know. These people are gone forever. And i think that you know it is mccain if you look at why people changing their minds you know. It's fundamentally because of how parties are presenting themselves. How the media is talking and these are things that are malleable. It's very difficult. It'd be very difficult for us to go and change these things. But i think if it happened we would see change. And it's something that's worth doing. That's great that's a great point. I think a great place to end. Because i mean obviously i'm not an because i still get up every morning and keep doing my work and i thought it didn't matter at all i think i would stop So it's used point that like people do change and things change over time and there are swings that are larger than ever and the other thing i think the last thing and i think you'd agree with this. Is that after every election. People do this where they take. They take the current line and they just draw it out into the future and like that's never the way it works. It's like the margin swing in both directions and opposite directions to based on how good the campaign is how the candidate is what the conditions of the country are. So it's like you know. There's always some new demographic group of like the latino trump and it's like yeah. There's a lot more. Latino trump voters this time the last time. But that doesn't mean that like the next four years is going to be that that trend continues in that direction. Like these are these trends. Do move in opposite directions based on stuff. And i think even though this has been kind of this sixty seventy year trend. I think the big question of the next couple of years is that it is it is clear. I think you know to a people on the party to politicians. And i think to anyone looks at it closely that the current coalition the democrats have isn't workable in isn't consistent beano withholding legislative power. You know we talk about the electoral college. The senate is much much more biased in the electoral college. You know these rural states have wave your college educated voters and so the big question is are even. This trend wasn't a liability for them previously. Twenty twelve we really had this sweet spot. The electoral college was actually biased. A little bit in our favor because you know we had this kind of blue wall in the mid west but it was also just enough for us to win. These states like virginia in colorado and now that it is clearly a problem for the first time. The big question is is the democratic party. Going to adjust. It's not it's not a lot of physics. it's not that like every college educated person is in inexorably drawn to the right. It's a product of decisions that the democratic and republican party are making and now that the incentives are so much greater than they were before. It's just a question of are we going to have to make these hard coalition choices in order to adjust. David shore is a data scientist. He works a consultant on various democratic campaigns and super pacs. That was super gray. David thank you so.