Clemson, Hartman, EPA discussed on Bet The Board
But when you look at wake pain, they have a dynamic offense led by Sam Hartman Clemson has a dynamic defense that has been outstanding all season long shown a little bit of vulnerability when they took on a team like Pittsburgh, but in their own building with everything to play for. I think this matchup should be worth its weight in gold at noon eastern. This is good on good, right? Hartman versus Clemson's defense. Hartman, I believe 7th in total EPA for quarterbacks Clemson still a top 5 defense in EPA per play allowed and productive drives allowed. It's a fun matchup. Harmon's going off his worst game of the season, though. One of the weirder games you'll see from a quarterback in offensive perspective. Wake only had a 39% success rate against NC state Hartman completed less than 43% of his passes. Wakes ground game, negative EPA per Russia, and somehow they still hung 45 on the best defense they've placed played this season. And I know NC states been dealing with some defensive injuries, but still a good unit. It was just one of the more bizarre games by the box score wake certainly lost. Clemson is a little bit of a different animal. And I know they've also dealt with their fair share of defensive injuries, a couple of guys out. In the front 7, we know they're down offensively, but defensively still elite venables. If you've listened to his presser this week, he knows what he's up against. This is the type of matchup where he's been like, hey, we need to be disciplined down to down, and we just need to execute. And he basically said the same thing that we've been saying about wakes offense in that it's not overly complex. Sure, there's some intricate stuff with their blocking schemes where they'll pull a tackle up the middle and for the most part, it's an RPO system. They hold the mesh point for as long as possible to put your defense in conflict. The vast majority of the place, they are designed to look the same. Wake's just really good executing it. A lot of veteran guys, a lot of smart kids, right? That are executing this offense. Now, the matchup last season, I know it's different. Wakes scored only three non garbage time points. And venables kind of hinted that everything looks the same as it did last year, just the guys are older. They execute better and I quote Hartman's a baller. So let's see what Clemson comes up with here. They haven't created the most havoc with their front 7 like they have in years past. They're not getting their typical push up front, but Clemson's still very good at the line of scrimmage. They still have to win that battle. 17th in line yards. They really still hold up well. Even though their horses are brise, who's out. It's a big loss, obviously, but he's been out for a while. They've adapted the life without them. If you have a good defensive line, you can impact wake's office, right? Because they hold the ball so long, that mesh point, you can get your hands up, tip a bunch of passes, drive that O line back. If Clemson can stop the run with 5, and you get disciplined play out of your linebackers and keep an eye on that Clemson doesn't have the best coverage linebackers. But if you can get those two things, it's going to be tough for weeks offense. It's also worth mentioning here and you kind of hinted at this is the schedule dichotomy. Wake force played one defensive line in the top 40 in line yards. Clemson's played three offenses inside Bill Connolly's top 25 SMP plus. So there is this massive scheduling difference here. And right now, this game probably isn't for me. But we talk all the time about lines painting pictures and telling stories. You have a three loss Clemson team that nobody seems to want. Couldn't cover. It's lowly Connecticut. Wake force has this great story. Even though they lost one game, still tenth in the college football playoff race. Clemson's a four and a half point favorite. And I don't even need to look dot. Casual betters are going to be running over men women and children to get wake as a dog here. But you start to have these market inefficiencies. And I understand Clemson is vastly different than it was last year. Not quite as good defensively, and obviously an abomination on offense. But clumps is a 35 point favorite at weight last year. And now you have a venue flip. Where Clemson's at home and they're just a four point favorite this year. My gut says this line kind of trickles up a little bit. We'll see if the public evens that out. And oddsmakers have to adjust for all the public money on the dog. But just an interesting game where the line certainly tells a lot. I've done power ratings, not nearly as extensively as some folks in the industry or as long. I've made adjustments for quarterback downgrades and cluster injuries, but I'm not sure I've ever made a 39 point adjustment from Trevor Lawrence handing the baton to DJ uncle ale, although to your point, anyone who goes 21 to 44 with a 48% completion rate and a season high 240 yards passing against Yukon, probably not exactly a ringing endorsement. The other thing it appears that Justin Ross is going to have surgery on his foot, Clemson hadn't made any official determinations from what I'd read, but an offense had struggled now loses its top playmaker 46 catches 514 yards out of the mix. But according to davo this week, it does appear that will shipley and Kobe pace will be back in the fold for this one. So just things to keep in mind as you look to try and handicap. I know a lot of our listeners will be forced to make a pick on this game for various office pools and such. If you want you yeah, no, no, no, if you want to go contrarian, I think, to your point, I mean, you may be able to make up some ground on your competition by laying the points of the climate and if you want to think outside the box a bit. Oh, yeah. If you're in contest pools and you're trying to make up ground, sometimes it becomes not necessarily about the game in and of itself. But the way you need to navigate contests, there is some strategy involved other than like hey, let's just pick the winner and being able to make up ground on sides that you would at least lean to. And if you lean to Clemson knowing the entire pool, probably be on. Wake forest, that certainly the better way to navigate things than just grabbing a stale number on another game the rest of the contest is probably going to also have where you're not able to make up ground that way. Yep, no doubt about it, especially as you get into the latter stages of some of those pools out there as we know people like to get skin in the game a variety of ways and it's not just always betting into the dynamic markets available to you at FanDuel sportsbook. All right, to the SEC pain, Arkansas, Alabama, I believe this is the SEC game of the week on CBS, and it's the Alabama crimson tide more than a three touchdown favorite 21 and a half to going number at FanDuel right now. Total in the game, 58 and a half. The last win in this series for Arkansas came way back in 2006, the year before Nick Saban arrived to Tuscaloosa to change the fates of the pride program there. Bam has scored at least 40 points in each of the last 5 meetings versus Arkansas, the last two meetings have been a combined score of 100 points for Alabama to ten for the razorbacks, Arkansas is.