Twenty Twenty, Samsung, Disney discussed on Digiday Podcast
All Right Tim. Welcome to the PODCAST. Thanks wherever this is your first ever I okay I nervous little bit hit. Okay fine all right. So we're heading twenty twenty You've been doing an amazing job In a biased way. Say This uncovering the rise of volley streaming platforms and what we sort of think of the future of TV. I want to look forward to to twenty twenty but I like what what do you think. Twenty nine thousand nine was the year of if you will is your growth like there was a lot of growth of everyone obviously talks about the growth. A lot of people were moving industry mean and and I think that kind of sets up twenty two thousand for that's when the growing pains are going to start but like what's Gimme specifics. Well so in the upfront this year with advertisers and the TV now works digital played a bigger part in getting those budgets because in the past digital had been an add on for the networks and the also the prices had been higher then especially when it comes to like the cable networks. Their digital inventory was priced a lot higher than their linear inventory and so that had been a pain point but now with linear viewership decline Kline in they had to lower the prices for the digital inventory in order to get the bigger volume commitments. So it seems like when we're talking about the streaming wars and a a lot of people talk about distributors. We're actually talking about a bunch of different worse right. This is like what is it the thirteen years war. I don't remember but there. There's a lot of different people fighting writing. So how do you group them. What I'm thinking about is like I'm thinking net flicks is going up against Disney and interest and that is like this Inter Galactic Battle But then there are other battles going on. Yeah because then you have like the Nisha Suad Services and s fat come on subscription streamers But then then there's the free ad supported streaming TV services like the Pluto. TV's Zuma's Samsung TV plus roku channel. I N BTV and that's becoming more of of a war because right now there they all look the same. They all have the same old programming the same like movies that you would normally watch on like yeah Sunday afternoon on cable. TV So when you're looking at twenty twenty. Are we looking at a typical middle market crunch. I mean we're seeing this across pretty much every area we cover in in cross glossy with fashion and beauty and in Monterey retail with retail. I mean we're seeing the middle get crunched everywhere and that's going to happen and folks folks are concerned about it like BEEN MEETING WITH TV network executives and also you know digital entertainment executives and they're concerned about it because they they recognize that that's going to be the case that with connected TV. It's like mobile all over again for publishers where it doesn't really make sense for a lot of these companies to have their own connected. TV CBS because people aren't gonNA use them. They're going to stick with like a Netflix at Disney Youtube Pluto the aggregate. There's right and so there. It's the bundle all over again cowboy What about on the advertiser's side I think we've been doing a lot of coverage around you know some very core basic issues when it comes to connected. TV advertising. Like why the hell do I see the same ad repeatedly and why can And I thought you got into like a lot of the good details but why that what's happening. What what kind of growing pains you expect to see for the industry In Two thousand twenty when it comes to to connected. TV advertising a think the growth is still an issue there when it comes to getting more dollars because there was Someone Outta Holding Agency. I was talking to saying that you don't have to spend and is much when it comes to connected TV because you can be more targeted and because the ad loads are lighter to there just isn't as much inventory to be buy in so for anyone who's expecting gene TV dollars to shift entirely into digital. That's not gonNA happen because they don't have to shift entirely. You actually save money. If you're not retired Sir I mean as a a too simplistic to say that I mean there's so much of this viewing is going on That you there's no advertising involved everyone wants subscriptions right Yeah who has a different model but Scott Galloway talks about advertising becoming a tax on the poor I are we. We seen this actually play out Where there just isn't places for this TV advertising to move to because so much of the streaming viewing is an Anon- at environment? Well you have. I mean who the interesting thing with them is. They're limited commercials. Subscriptions since here is their most popular beer and with like their sprint and their spotify deals they've been doing a lot to push subscribers specifically for that here and so that that serves as something of a model but again then it's an aggregate or thing where people can sign up for Hulu because they'll get a bunch of different shows and movies that they can watch for someone WHO's smaller publisher. I don't know if people are going to be as tolerant of that okay so final thing Working on all these bold calls Going into two thousand twenty predictions right but Give us Keeps winning bowl calls. I think this martine manufacturers will band together and try to negotiate harder carriage deals when it comes to connected. TV with the different media companies. Okay so give me an example of that Well well it's already the case in the cable market where you have like the regional cable providers who they negotiate together as a group and I think the SMART ATV manufacturers are going to start doing that because you have Samsung already selling ads on its smart TV platform Now starting to same and I think more and more of them are seeing. There's an opportunity there because people don't buy. TV's they buy TV's like once every seven years or so and so these smart TV manufacturers have to figure out okay where can we get revenue in between. Ah People buy new. TV's okay cool. Thanks Tom Thank you. Now have Laura Riley via Google. Hang out from our London office. Large joined us a few months ago to cover the big global stories immediate Lauren. I talk about the outlook for the continued media. Consolidation next year and the fallout from the death of of digital advertising workhorse. The third party cookie all right Laura. Welcome Anki let's Talk I mean one of the The big stories of this year and then going run into next year is digital media consolidation. We saw a lot of a lot of big names. Come off the board this year The megamerger that was mooted never her never came to pass. But what do you expect to see in twenty twenty. I think you're right. Most the mega-deals appear to be done at twenty twenty will be a lot about lays can big giant so the Disney Fox's in Time Warner. At and T.. Just kind of working for the integration of those acquisitions as you say. We sold lots of their smaller. Mola digital players uniting and we still some more controversial deals say things like maiden buying sports illustrated and laying off miss the team. We saw so that happened with Bloomberg City lab reportedly laying off some of the editorial stuff that intensive looking ahead. I think there's there's still lots loss of appetite out there. People still need scale. People still need revenue diversification. So there's lots appetite out there for Lou Interesting digital media players. We've had people like Ziff. Davis and DOT Dash. Are you. Police say that the hungry to make more transactions. But I think also what we're guide to see is You'll saying lots of tech players move into different areas. So we saw things like spotify acquiring Gamla and Ankara this year. We also saw people google moving into gaming with stadia at everyone from Amazon to apple has a TV strategy nowadays. So so I think we're going to see lots of different types of deals as you said the big roll up the buzzfeed Vice Fox megamerger. That was posed never happened. I'm I'm not sure whether that were what you think. Yeah I mean I think the big roll up is probably not going to happen. There's just too many interests at stake there. I think the big big unknown is The economy I mean. I think we're going into our third year in which Top economists have predicted a recession. So it's really hard hard exactly to know when this recession is going to hit at least in the US. Were in our tenth year of expansion But I think you know that was driving being a Lotta.