Houston, Florence, North Carolina discussed on Weather Geeks
So people who had been through the inland flood disaster before and both meteorologist anti mercy managers. And we talked about our motivation is to lessen the loss of life in in rain induced inland flooding, and that includes river. What do we do about it? And there were two major categories of ways that we needed to produce the problem. One is how do we stop people from driving their cars onto water covered road? And number two, how do we deal with people who are really finding themselves even if they're in their home in a life threatening flood rising waters in their community and for the ladder. That's what mostly happened in Houston. Houston was mostly not people dying in their cars. Matthew at was in North Carolina, but in Houston, it was mostly people dying in structures, struck rising waters in their community. So obviously for the people driving their cars onto water covered roadways, we have to do more to convince them not to do that or stop them from doing that. But with the rivers rising waters riding rising your communities. If you could know the rainfall and flood innovation forecast far enough in advance or know that you've got a vulnerable. Oversight community or somebody that's nearby you whenever can you get those people out in targeted limited evacuations ahead of time. And I think everybody thought that has some merit and we could head in that direction, but we still need to do a better job of forecasting, the rainfall, forecasting the inundation, right? And that's harder. But I think post Florence that that discussion could accelerate a little bit. I agree. If we even if you don't have an inundation map in front of you from the weather service, if emergency manager, I could say, you know what? I've got these riverside communities that have flooded before I'm just going to get the most vulnerable frequently flooding people out and. Then block that area off block off roads that typically flood and more aggressively barricade roads. So people don't as frequently find themselves confronted with that turnaround, don't drown, there's and you couldn't even get covered. So it isn't just about better, neater, logical communication, or better meteorological forecasting. I think it's more aggressively taking actions that lessen the chance that people are in the flood. Yeah, in the first place, if the great point we talked with Dr Rick nab National Hurricane Center, former director of and currently the weather channel's hurricane expert. He's found his way back home to the Weather Channel. Great to be back. I want to shift gears here little bit and talk about the modeling in the forecasting get whether geeky here because we were talking about as a community, this potential for North Carolina landfall for some time. If you were kind of really paying attention to this meteorologically and that kind of pan down, we were talking for a good bit of time about the possibility that may stall steering cars. We're going to be weeks. So that kind of happened the intensity. Well, we know the intensity challenges still out there. So overall, you're Cessna the modelling and forecast and you gotta talk about track. And intensity a little bit separately. Even though in many cases, they are interdependent if but we had a pretty good idea that Florence was at least going to have a chance to make landfall in the US. The chances were there based on looking at a large number of track model scenarios looking at the Unstoppables of the European model, looking at a variety of models, but also just looking at the overall steering pattern. We saw again, this massive, strong deeply orig- pattern forming over the north west Atlantic, and it just didn't look like there were many rides out of town for Florence right before getting to the US and miss that one ride that could have taken an east Bermuda and once at miss that the pattern in the atmosphere gave us high confidence that it was at least gonna get close. You know, people often don't realize it hurricanes. Don't have their own steering wheel, powerful hurricanes are still steer. Around by the larger patterns around them. And that's one of the things that makes the track forecast, which is historically the last several decades improved because we have the models have a better handle on those large enough to conditions, right. And the synoptic conditions for Florence reminded me once it started moving west and between Bermuda and the Caribbean. It reminded me a bit of the Isabel scenario which through in DC area, five days without power in Maryland, with.