Jonathan, Five Hundred Thousand Liters, First Third discussed on Arms Control Wonk

Arms Control Wonk
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Is that it is progressive in the sense that our knowledge can build upon itself. Right when you know how big a rocket is then it gives you a bunch of other details like how powerful it is how much fuel it takes and you can then use that information to better understand the satellite images. You're looking at. Yeah that's right. If we didn't have a great model of the morgue we might not have realized that it was exactly the right amount of fuel and the last thing which is a little bit more ambiguous for whatever reason and i don't know why they do this but scudder fuel comes in these containers these little containers. You know somewhere between five hundred thousand liters each and that's what we see in iran like there was a severe launch where they had the little containers but we think the oxidizer which would be nitric. Acid would comes in one container one giant container. Probably because it's so toxic and corrosive that you have to have a really special Container to handle it. And there is a giant container that showed up next to the fuel so our some shin is. it's a probably oxidizer. It's probably big enough for all the oxidizer needs. But i don't know that's that's we don't like we have ground pictures of the fuel containers so we're pretty sure that's what those are. We do not have a nice pretty picture of an oxidizer container. So that's like. That's the thing i'm guessing at. It's not a thing. I'm sure about but you add it all up like that's kind of a lot. Yeah no that's hitting the signatures from pretty much every possible angle. You've got the personnel angle cars. Come in so you've got your personnel and staff you've been monitoring you can tell when you have atypical timing. You've got mysterious stranger on the internet providing a tip Which is a different kind of open source usage. That you don't always get well was able to comment. Someone made which. I could not have interpreted without this person saying. Yeah i think. That's what that means. Gotcha but then you have. Someone thing that's actually sticking out to me in particular is being interesting is the scud. Derivative fuel supplies just because that's something that's also used for legacy north korean systems as an identifier is. Just oh anytime you have something. That's from the scud. Arc you can start tracking very specific ground support equipment because it follows the scud everywhere. For some reason it's like they had a discount at the scud support store it all out. So that's your signature. Is you and jonathan dial. Put together this. This open source picture that this launch failed going back to what we were talking about. In the first third of the pod you took this to zachary cohen at cnn. So that he could as you said. Ring the rest of the information out of it. Yeah because you know look from our perspective. The satellite injuries enough. I mean i. It's a way of knowing about the world. It's a pretty reliable way of knowing about the world. I was totally comfortable on the basis of the images that we had saying that between the june six max our image and the june one planet age there was space launch like. They're ju ju just don't go through that level of work and and not do it. You know like well. Maybe they scrub though on. She shehab but then. I think we would have seen other signs. We have the kind of back and forth for. I think for a news story. You really need the pentagon to go..

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