Twenty Twenty, Clippers, Knicks discussed on Dunc'd On Basketball Podcast
I good Sunday to all of you. Dunk on listeners. Kinda weird even just talking about days anymore at this point. I guess we've still got the the rhythm of the podcast that to keep us through the only giving me rhythm Nate Syrup it felt good actually record with Hollinger today. We did a for those of you. Who enjoyed the decade tournament idea that I did with Ben Taylor? John and I did a worst teams of the decade tournament and that was A really good time with that. We spent a bunch of time researching it and then There we did a bunch of research for today to house actually busy all day today which was Nice A welcome distraction. Good news is you guys are still tuning in Listen Don a little bit. I think because people aren't commuting and obviously because there are no gains but we thank you guys for continuing to listen and as long as you guys are listening. We'll have content for you for sure. I mean I'm not hopefully People will still be advertising and selling products that But for the time being that seems to be working out okay so we will be here with you guys for as long as this goes on and people are still listening so thanks again for your support. It's good to be part of this committee. I appreciate all the Nice messages that I've gotten. I'm sorry. I haven't a chance to respond to everyone but a talking about how. The article that I wrote was useful for them or just letting me know. What your experiences are it just it. It's good to hear from everyone and still have a little bit of a sense of community here as we go through this. So we're going to do today. We want to introduce this concept. You're doing yeah I mean it was funny. I pitched it to you before I realized the scope of the project being so basically the idea that we you and I've talked about various ways of doing kind of like a asset ranking type of idea and what this is going to be as it's a section of it but I think in many ways is the most interesting and important section to do in something like this which is just going through and ordering and talking about the first round picks that are owed outstanding. So it's you know so. So what what? What teams What what are the most valuable picks that one team owes another and because those are all tradable and everything else and it brings about a bunch of really challenging arguments? That don't necessarily have right answers. But I think you and I both have strong feelings about which sometimes we'll talk about where those are differ from where the average general manager is. You may have oversold bill but not sure that I have strong feelings about some of these arena and yeah like you I. I knew there was a lot out there but on a I'll tell people there are thirty three were to that we're going to skip because it's the the warriors pick from this year and the cavs pick because as things stand right now. The odds of those actually conveying are so low as first round picks that it's just they don't really count. Yeah and so. I'm not sure I have that sort of opinions because I just I at some point. I kinda through my hands with all these. The Lakers and the Clippers and Houston picks that are due four years from now. I'm like man you know. What do I make it that I think we'll get into some of the methodologies that we use but yeah I mean I remember when we did this camera two three years ago or so but I felt it was much easier to order stuff in because you had teams that were already bad who owed picks in the next couple of years and so those appear to be pretty valuable now as it turned out Sacramento Twenty Nineteen and Lakers twenty eighteen? Now Memphis Twenty. Twenty one or twenty twenty. I guess it's GonNa turn out to be a those picks weren't as useful as people thought there'd be those Brooklyn picks turned out to probably be higher than people thought they would be so a reminder that all of this very much change but a few other factors I wanted to put in here. Two Thousand Twenty supposed to be a bad draft. I'm not sure how the hiatus is going to enter into that. I'm not really thinking that that would reduce the value of twenty twenty six particularly. Let me sit at this point. There is a there is a specific thing that might factor in which the cap gets lower than that means. The rookie scale will get lower. So those picks could be. But I don't think you you're trying to get the best player that's more than the financial value the pick but yeah. It's the the widely-held expert opinions. Is that the twenty twenty. Isn't good and that the twenty twenty one draft could be very so. I'm looking forward to the hoop summit this year and seeing the likes of Kate Cunningham for the first time but unfortunately that's That may not be happening. But Yeah Twenty. Twenty one is supposed to be better Twenty twenty two was supposed to be the double draft. I would say that. It seemed like they weren't trending in the direction of reaching agreement on that anyway maybe to have high schoolers entered the draft. Now with all this uncertainty I mean maybe that still happens because they're just going to be negotiating everything else anyway to get the league back started again so might as well. Just throw that in there as something else But my guess would be. Maybe that's now going to be pushed back a year especially with all the chaos in college basketball as well that maybe twenty twenty three could be the double draft rather than twenty twenty two. Yeah and we know the League wants to give a little bit of notice the teams but considering how many picks are treated so far out. I think they can't care as much as they were going to originally was like. Oh we wanted to drive for their no obligations. I think they know it's going to have to happen at some point. Some teams are going to get inconvenienced. Some teams are going to benefit. Well and then just to kind of spread things out among the years and we'll get into a lot of these obviously in terms of specifics but for just the twenty twenty draft. We've got nine first. Round picks that have an alternate destination as of this point presumably before the draft. There can be more trades in that regard as well but this far out that is a lot of picks that have changed hands and many of them really within the last year year and a half. Yeah thank you Paul George Leonard and yeah well that's just twenty twenty two. I mean that wasn't the Yeah I mean there are a lot of teams. Were definitely willing to part with first round picks within the last couple years Twenty twenty one. We've got probably between ill because there are some protections here most likely is. Maybe I'd say five five picks that already traded that another two that could go that Europe but are probably more likely to roll over And one of those the swap we're Kinda just including swaps in this as well. Yeah but we'll know for a swamp lake it so theoretically what the. Let's use the Knicks Clippers. One for twenty twenty one. That was another part of the Marcus. Trade the Knicks basically the the way the Knicks. Get the clippers. Pick if it is both better than the next pick but not top four and so like yeah as a technical matter that dot one west yet but technically has an asset. That's like well what the next can trade is the better of their own pick and the you know the better of their own picking will but the Knicks pick hasn't been traded. So you know what I'm saying like we're being fair and judicious with those Somebody else that I think is is really interesting. Thinking about this time is protection an upside. So what if you have a team? That's good right now like the clippers. So we'll we'll do this. I'll do this with an actual concrete example. So what's go all the way out to twenty twenty six and they're only two obligations that you're both of which are held by the thunder. They the clippers unprotected. I and they have the rockets. I if it's not in the top four so it's five thirty so then you get into those questions. Well okay. I would expect with their own. Everything else that the clippers will be a better team on you know because you're washing away all the talent that far out and but the but the rockets pick has that little bit of protection. If it doesn't convey then it becomes a script so you have to squirrel. Those things that you're headed well was the chance that it's a top five. Pick everybody else. That's why I founded such an interesting exercise and then also gives an opportunity which will go through at one point of how the League is GonNa look in a few years you know. We did the crystal ball but this is actually in some ways looking even far further beyond that and so like I hadn't really thought about the twenty three twenty four Golden State Warriors and that ends up being really important to this. Yeah I think when you get that far out my philosophy is GonNa be. I'm going to bet on the organization a late more. I mean the warriors are in a little bit different of a of a standpoint here because they've got a lot of old guys who are on big contracts and so for them to be able to hit before then you would imagine. They'd be on the downside. Where's this could just be a completely different iteration of say the Clippers in two thousand twenty six? But Yeah I mean you WanNa ask me what. I rather have the clippers. Twenty twenty two twenty twenty four or twenty twenty six unprotected pick. How the Hell should I? I mean I guess I guess. Twenty twenty two. You think that they would still have Paul. George Grizzard probably wouldn't be that one and two thousand twenty six is so far away but maybe there would be and that's another part of this I- looted in the beginning to the idea that we value this a little differently than general manager is that immediacy matters more to them than to us. Because you wanna get the benefits while you're still in the job because it say hey look at the thing. I got you in west. It's like such a blue chip asset you and I are. Hey it's like five picks a couple of years later but that's better but you're also you know the further out you go the less certainty you have a wall. So absolutely yeah. This is going to be an interesting discussion Yeah especially because in this case the highest upside picks are all further out. So I will. We'll get into this here and see where some of these picks are are going to rank for us in just a second. You've heard me talk about hymns and how it is the service that I used to treat my.