Bloomberg Lp, United States, Dr Peck discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
Up to transfer center, eight cents a $40.83 a barrel Comex gold, up half percent, or $9.50 at 18 09 80 announced the euro 1.1423 against the dollar. The yen is that 107.23 Netflix is down almost 7% this morning. And US own construction starts rose 17% in June, with builders ramping up production as lockdowns eased. That's a Bloomberg business Flash toman Paul Karen, Thanks so much. He's a Murali gist. He's with the Bloomberg School of Public Health. Should state that Mr. Bloomberg is, of course, founder of Bloomberg LP, this TV this radio operation as well, and he has been philanthropic with his Johns Hopkins. University. We have benefited. From repeated conversations with Murali Gist, Andrew Pickoffs here, an update from Dr Peck lives. Being prepared for this pandemic. Having seen the first large number of cases that came to the country, we should have been better prepared to deal with the eventual surges and small outbreaks that are occurring now It's incredibly dis concerning To see the level of cases that are coming up in places. And, more importantly, the lack of riel responses to get those case numbers down. This's not the way you deal with a pandemic, and we've been prepared not only from our own experiences, but from the experiences of other countries. We know how to intervene here to get these case numbers down. It seems to just be a lack of either political will or personal will to implement those those tools. Okay, I'll go with a personal will, and we've seen some good articles as we showing percentage of mask wearing in societies. In all that. What are we going to see? In the next week or two? I was ripped up on Twitter, Dr Peck off looking at the death dynamics of first and second derivative of log path of deaths. Help me here with the death dynamics lagging the case dynamics right now. Yeah. So we know because of the course of the disease will see Case numbers increased first will see hospitalizations lag that Bye anywhere between 7 to 10 days. And then we'll see deaths lag that by another seven days or so. What's interesting about now is the initial cases are in a younger population. So those surges air really coming up in terms of those What we call healthier individuals who may not be suffering as much death. But what we're going to see is now the transmission of virus from those individuals to more susceptible individuals. And that's going to mean that the hospitalization and the death rates are going to increase on even further delay. So we are expecting to see These surges in severe cases like even further than we have in the first wave in this in the country, and by the time we see that, Serge it's going to be almost too late to intervene because of that delay in in terms of monitoring cases. Yeah, that would certainly be a very serious situation. But Dr Picot in terms of the severity of cases, is it really true that cases A less severe for young people, because you see a lot of anecdotal evidence, particularly on social media of people talking about really frightening symptoms that Ryker for weeks if not months on end, and this is the important thing to understand about things like when people use things like case fatality rates or hospitalization rates it, baby that if you're younger The percentage of individuals that suffer those severe cases is lower across the population, but we have to remember that virtually the entire U. S population is susceptible to diseases. So even to this to this disease, so even a small percentage of severe cases amplified by the entire population of the US turns into a large number of cases, and that's the important part that people have to remember. It's not just about Well, most young individuals won't have suffer severe cases. There's enough of these young individuals that the number of severe cases is really going to be large. And on top of that. They are efficient transmitters of the disease, so you'll see the severe disease and other populations that we know stuff from spirit disease. So this's not a benign disease. This is not a common cold, like virus than the severity of diseases covered with large numbers of susceptible people is gonna translate into a large number of severe cases that were going to say hi and I'm on the transmission. Of course, the W H O is still looking into whether there's airborne transmission of covered 19. But what about the Immune response. What more do we know about whether people can build up sufficient immunity to this as we wait for a vaccine? Yes, With the vaccine trials, we've had some good results. Still, preliminary results still results off small population sizes, but it seems like many of the vaccines That have been fast tracked are generating the immune response that we want to see that we assume will protect us from infection. We still have a lot of safety work to do with these vaccines, and that's going to come in play. When we get the larger trials coming in place now into the early fall in terms of the immune responses to infection, it's kind of a mixed bag. In the same way that this virus causes a wide spectrum of disease ranging from no symptoms, toe hospitalization and death. We're seeing that the virus also induces a wide spectrum of immune responses from rather modest ones that fade wrote him too quickly to rather strong ones. That can last for at least a few months, because that's how much of the data that we have. So it's again a big, hetero genius spectrum. In terms of the immune responses that are induced by infection, the vaccines seem a little bit more. Tighter in terms of their immune response, So that's a good sign. Andr Pecos of Johns Hopkins University. Quick. I got the number guess wrong for the day Paul Sweeney..