HP, EDE, IBM discussed on Invest Like the Best
Market starts at zero and then a movement gathers and the movement accelerates and the market emerges from the movement it emerges as a result of the movement capturing the conventional wisdom in the inflections power breakthrough that creates a movement. The causes a change in the way people think and act the future as you survey. Today's landscape a lot has changed about the world. The last eighteen twenty four months. What are the inflections that you are most closely paying attention to today. I'm paying a lot of attention to crypto. I'm paying a lot of attention to synthetic biology or a. I applied to life. Extension always bugged me as a term carbon capture things that change the future for humanity in a meaningful way are the main things that i'm looking at. There's a lot of things that are interesting to me too about. Just the commoditisation of ai. Software so normal start. Ups are going to have access to a ai capabilities that would have been unthinkable even five years ago. So i think that's interesting you that sort of the same story as the access that they've had to network in computer infrastructure by the cloud. Is it effectively the same story again. That higher out that function and therefore move faster. I think that but i think also when i really think of a i what is it doing. Is impacting business fields. Where the cost of predictions are high and the people who make predictions are expensive. What i like to say as it most inflections. Take something that usually in the past was scarce and expensive and they turn it into something cheap abundant to me. The implication of a i is that it allows what was formerly difficult and expensive predictions to be made well enough at commodity prices and distribution. It seems like early in your life. Your experience with hp thirty five calculator set the tone for your view on things like leverage and abundance and technology. Can you just describe that little episode in early in your life and how relevant remains today yet. It's funny how just sometimes you know. You're just born at a certain time. But like when i was in first grade i wanted. Hp calculator fact. I have it in my officer. I couldn't get one at the time it's too expensive. So the cost of hp calculator backed ede's dollars be like three thousand dollars. Best probably not very practical for first grade especially. My parents didn't have much money. they said. Hey you know before you get a calculator you heller your time stables division long division and no not just with mainers decimals to and i just kept learning. This stuff will eventually in the third grade calculators. Were already a lot less expensive. You could go radio shack get one and so we went to radio shack and got two of them one for me. Wanted to take apart. And so my dad and i took it apart and he got a bunch of wires and soldering irons. And he would explain to me okay. This is a light-emitting diode and that's what this does. This is the cpu. That's the brain. This is the keyboard now it works and then we would take wires and solder all the pieces together. We bought us on off switch radio shack and soldered it to the piece of plywood and then did wires. The starting switch to the calculator disconnected the power switch on the real calculator so we just did stuff like that. And i just got really interested in i. It was calculators that personal computers came out and my dad was part of the original efforts with ibm pc. I got to use one of the early versions before. It was commercially out so he just kind of grew up as a child at the pc revolution and it started out as a hobby. Is see the other thing. I think that matters about startups in today's world. Is i think that we're shifting. From mass production mass distribution and electricity animating the economy to mass computation mass activity out and code. M the comedy startups for me. Went from something interesting. But kind of on the fringe of business analysis on the startups that matter in the world and the companies that matter in the world do it this way where the companies have uber excited about today. Amazon tesla spacex. These are companies most of which got formed after the internet revolution. I think we'll continue to see scalable. Startups be the driving and defining force in the economy. Going forward does that then. As a knock on effect mean that venture capital which has been. I think it was your term. A cottage industry for a lot of its history will no longer be that going forward and and we'll look much more like let's say. Wall street looks as the finance mechanism. Behind the corporation. Behind the mass production mass distribution that needed wall street in big dollar amounts does vc than become that in the future and drastically change from always. Today i think so in a kind depends on how you define these right but like i would say that the amount of money that i believe will go into private tech startups before they go. Public exit is gonna explode. And why do i believe that. Well if you believe the thesis that i just outlined you'd say let's say the stock market is worth thirty trillion or so right out. I don't know precisely right. Writing gets in the ballpark. Let's say ten years from now. You think it's going to be worth sixty trillion or more. Where is that value come from. I think increasingly. It's going to be big tech incumbents and future tech startups. As if you believe that if you're an investor you wanna be in these private startups you wanna be funding airbnb when it's worth a billion dollars or or slack or any of these companies and much money is invested. The stock market is like thirty trillion dollars as much venture capital being raised right now..