China, Tourism Industry, Australia discussed on The Property Couch
Folks Bryce he'd just letting check with narrowed economy the chief economist of the area earlier. And I thought I'd share with you as we do each and every month but just say no narrative wasn't in the studio tonight. We actually got her over the incident. Which is terrific. But there's a little bit of Eker in the Fox apologize in advance that hanging there because the content is really really good folks. I hope you enjoyed. Here's much at with Narayan's me the chief. Economist of the Architects Sambre Hall. I I the CO host of the Property. Catch today with me. I'll have narrative counterspy who's chief economist at the real. Rei Group which is better niners brutal site. Dot Com Narrow I'm loud now. I'm used to having you in the studio. Hey but I'm more than happy to take a I've The new because I haven't caught up with usage the twentieth Divan. And there's been a lot happening and of course last month you're in the studio and you spent time with Ben which was a great Walsall alive. Spits them? I guess really chatting you'd think that the discussion Detroit's given the decision tomorrow but I think Think it'd be fair. Decided to run of ours is number one side. We're GONNA cover. That was before we do just to remind folks stick around to the end. Because we're going to show you what's Read? Rusada HAS TO DO WITH PROPERTY. So we're going to cover that towards the end we're also guide through the most viewed the mice looked at listings for auction. Full private style as well as the most expensive real Santa Shrine in the last seven days and the march look that rental so we got a lot to cover Neruda. Tom Saupiquet to hear your views on corruption of ours. Clearly we have this talk of being a pandemic Just recently lost twenty. Three is that sufficient tried in his Passed away accessible to humanitarian issue And clearly selling families being affected by that as long as as well as many others across the country but clearly for the purpose of discussion. Tonight's the impact it has on the economy What's the latest from from your perspective at that thirty thousand foot view of the economy the economy with that verse but the be made impacts that we can say on economic growth unless forecast which will depend a lot on how bad it gets? This isn't begun on at the moment that we you know one hand. We is very clearly hitting the tourism industry in the end our education sector as to where it goes from now it depends quickly that can Bank can sorted out. Because I mean he said it said it said healthy she sorry west coast. It does spreading to Australia. V Some pretty awful health health outcomes but from an economic perspective. It's obviously caught far-reaching tomato. Maybe I'll start. We want the immediate impacts already had Spain because if you're in the tourism sector if not only been hit by bushfires by evil Cy Bain impacted now bike arenavirus and the area that is really impacting ease tourism from China. I love the airlines. Have shut down flights We have saying Big Heat now hotel industry anyone who's operating US rating about places like silvern. He'll have really been heat from from this downturn and one of the main reasons that we do rely very very heavily on Chinese For a lot of things and tourism as one so one point during Chinese tourists come to Australia of Riga. They account fifteen percent of total tourists. Spent they stand around a billion dollars a month so already in the economy lost. Two Billion Dollars They they also died that also growing. So this is the other issues. Didn't that was lost about NBC. I think we'd be. Tourism Industry was expecting Increase in the number of tourists from China on the other issues around tourism. Cy Tourists Education Education is Victoria is number one export the number to export coming out of the South Wales To give you an example how dependent some universities are on a Chinese students. The University of Sydney currently twenty five percent of title students are actually foreign full paying students from China site Huge impact there They they can't get out. You know having to to do classes via an Internet site you know. There's some really begin. I love the university really. Just shut down Spending because I just saw insurance to happen Depends ON ECONOMIC GROWTH. Must what happens with economic grind? So that the best estimates it'd be stage Bis Kites it. It's like a bad. What what economists have been referring to. It's very bad flu epidemic. Which would not want to send off global economic growth West case it it. It forces the global economy into recession. So that's all that stock market volatility we saw last week was really on the back but people in very very worried about what the impact will be on on economic growth. How do you reconcile that as an economist in terms of Economics? One about the multiplier effect. It's you have these students heating town you know. Even even really popular Chinese restaurants in Melbourne has shutdown analyst. Off guys you know. Tourism Education even supply chains if shutting down factories in China. One FACTORY LAWS. The other factor. That has that full on multiple expected. It's hard for the todd for the guy is trying to really get a grasp of how it's going to land in terms of you know August I guess. What would you say say to the to? Even if you floyd that through and score have an impact. Surely It's certainly going to you know we've got a robust economy and we're probably compared to other developed economies around the country probably doing county but that Hash this has two main the Dow de growth is impacted and therefore we started talking about the hour. Yeah look at slightly and I I think I think the issue is how creek label it get sorted out and you know if you have a look at it's There's a count up. Unique can have local counter online and and say the impact of SAMMI cases beginning in that it does seem to be flattening out. But you know I suppose you know. I'M NOT OBVIOUSLY TO HELP. Professional Bud vase. Things can flatten out and get worse again side daily it will have an impact on economic growth. The ends of really not much interest rates can do. I mean you can't cut rights to zero and some Chinese tourists to start coming back not that immediate impact side It will cut into growth at this stage. We dining exactly I have. I guess by Dealy. It's resolved quickly and it's a quarter a quarter of economic that we say pull coal prices growing back into a much better performing economy illiteracy bowling. Did you think that because there's been the panic fears is being quite strong and Ross? Is You have something. That's unknown even to the point way the number exactly but I think Khurana has dropped two hundred sixty million in revenue just as a result of people sort of linking corona this far. Do you say that that that increased anxiety and fear that my sort of perpetuate around late increased. You think that if we grant it back in Australia and real estate do you think that some people sort of get caught up in that fear and football better ability in that increases demand listens property. It's harming obviously directly commercial property. We can say Betsy sent ray title race. Our property really bad knees. It's real which is already bad as hotels. You're running a hotel at the moment it'd be pretty nervous intensive residential property it's It's a little bit uncertain. The United States on one hand It we got into recession and we lose jobs see rising unemployment than that is very bad needs for property because we know that people a false to sell and become highly distressed and problematic It things are listings. Could go up. You know if you start to say again you. Head into a recession in people were forced to sell them that can lay to to increasingly statements terrible for prescribe the united. You don't pay pools. Panic selling a force to sell because that will lead to quite big drops in processing I think that it is complicated. Like it's you know you kind of have right now. We know baggies rate. How bad news for hotels bad needs to anyone? Who's trying to rent property place to a university Globe global recession scenario is is is that he's around one hand bad easy. Catch it but also say hi. Play we dino. Cats have been bad news if we will start losing adults and I think that that's how extremities at the moment that it could be resolved in the next two weeks or it could. It could become a much bigger healthy. Shame you don't get one of the appeals appropriate Rosina. This is an essential age known as if you had to sell the house and pitch a tent. It's just not going to happen whereas so there is an increase as you. Fly that throated motivation. Someone's investment property or whatever it is so is. Is there a precedent for crying avars? is Swan. Giving us any clues or is just so you know. It's a genuine expected that we thought what's next South declare that happening two thousand full and limited foulis reliance on China. Then say we didn't get anywhere near the number of tourists. We get from China now getting married to sick from secondly reliance on China but um what happened the salads. It was resolved. It led to one quarter of Very slow economic growth in China. The next quarter the Chinese Government Pumped Hall of money into the economy of massive infrastructure rebuilding project and our role year NIA economic growth lose As expected and the sods epidemic really had minimal impact on economic growth. I've role but it could be if that happened. Which is kind of layer? I thought it was hitting even two weeks ago. It was Kinda hitting to that but but I think the trump it just just dragging on and it's spreading and that's why it looks like an probably than sobs but ideally. It does get resolved in the next month will sorry then. Something happened that people start to moving. Different governments moved to Having stimulus packages big infrastructure targets in some late. Not Suddenly. But you know eventually things kind of calm down and everything's full stayahead again on to stay calm and and see what happens next leads me into interest rates up before I ask you what you think would be there tomorrow if you offer the size of the table tomorrow and you got your wish list to let them know what what would you be advising in. If if you get your chance to give back tomorrow. I preferred they talking at the table about the budget. Then there is a bank. I think there is a bank will donate two for probably tomorrow if not tomorrow. Bay United Pros Site. It's hates down to happen at some stage. I guess he should. We don't have much room to move with monetary policy We'll effective That has trained just right cuts already. It's led to a messy prospering. Sienese praemium suburbs will say Melbourne's praemium suburbs We're not really spending more retile still very desirable We're not building more yet. Don't improve started increasing Selling Mall side dice three inches Right cuts yet in the end. All I did was fuel Teaming most expensive suburbs and it was really normal of impact. Then it's probably not not not not advisable but the impact of an interest rate cut. Don Seem to be quite At this stage federal budget. I think that could really change things and I think that that. Could you know if the government does start to push forward some pretty big infrastructure projects will push voting Sorry followed Tex con like. I think that might be more effective than just kind of interest rates again. So you mentioned you prefer to be the budget. Tiso rather than tomorrow. So what would you be saying? What what what would enthused about being part of that discussion the budget? Yeah Yeah Okay. I think the infrastructure projects that the kind of lost budget. I feel really good the one fast route to Japan. I mean that was not only a building her agent program but would really stimulate Jones economy. really good news for people join just like who would have Statewide impacts I think Fast foetal other faster I think is bright from property.