Northern Kentucky, Colgate, Green Bay discussed on Sports Gambling Radio - By BangTheBook
Here obviously WanNa see what this price looks like when the odds come out but that may be one that you want to keep an eye on their in the big south even though a lot of people will say it will likely come down to read Radford and winthrop and it could but Gardner Webb a team with some upside. They're coming out of that. Three C line real quick. I want to circle back to the Atlantic Sun Conference because circus. Sports actually did post those as son conference tournament odd sear. Liberty is bias three fifty north Florida plus four twenty-five Lipscomb plus twenty two hundred North Alabama fifty to one simply Jacksonville then on down from their celebrity minus three fifty here with North Florida. Plus four twenty five. And if I gotTA SAY. I don't even know if liberties highest minus three fifty in a potential championship game against North Florida. I agree with that. I think there's certainly value there with with North Florida. North North Florida's a team with twenty wins on the season. I you know they have. They have one goto player. Qadeer Rosa is is a senior that that can that can light it up for him. I you know you have when you have a senior point guard. Who is your best player. I I completely think there's value with the ospreys are so let's go to the Horizon League here. We've got right. State the minus one ten favorite out at circuit that was as of yesterday Northern Kentucky Plus Two Twenty Green Bay ten to one Illinois Chicago. Eleven to one. Nobody else in this conference really has a great chance. Everybody else thirty five to one or higher but when we look at the horizon a couple of interesting differences for this season. The first is that they're going to reseed in the first and second round or in the second round so what that's going to do potentially is take away a long shot getting to the finals because the last two years we've seen longshots get to the finals in the Horizon League tournament last year or two years ago we saw Cleveland State. Get there as an eight seed. They lost the right state 2017. Milwaukee made the finals as a ten seed so the Horizon League really trying to make a concerted effort here to put their best foot forward get one of their two best teams into the conference tournament. The second interesting wrinkle here and Ralph. We could talk about this. For A COUPLE OF MINUTES. Is that the the first round games are at campus sites. The quarterfinal games are at campus sites. But the semifinal games and the championship Games Indiana Farmers Calcium. This is the home floor of. Up Y who is the bottom seed in this conference but when you get late these conference tournaments here. These are sites that these teams generally don't play at too often that can have a big impact on shooting numbers. Totals and things like that. It does but you know I actually. I love the way the Horizon League does it and give their one and two a double by you know. They're the number. Three team gets a single by so you know the three teams GonNa play the next highest and the day too. So you know all you have to do is if you're right state or your northern Kentucky is win two games and you know the question's GonNa come up. Oh it's hard to beat a team three times and I you know. I certainly think that right state in northern Kentucky the way it's set up we'll get there. Well you know for those. That didn't pay attention on the final day of the regular season right state was playing for the title against Northern Kentucky. Went into Northern Kentucky. Wins that game sixty four sixty two so I had to go to the database and I pulled out what teams do losing. Do An opponent twice if they have twenty or more wins Northern Kentucky has twenty one wins on the season so you have a quality team that has dropped both of the first two meetings to an opponent going all the way back to two thousand and ten. The listen to the average line is only two point seven in the situation. Which you expect your twenty-one team you have double revenge two point seven is the average line and you're only sixty five and ninety one straight up forty one point seven percent against the spread your seventy four seventy nine and three forty eight point four percent. So it's GonNa come up often in these conference tournaments about. It's tough to beat a team three times. Well it's not if you're the better team you know. It's tough to upset a team three times. That's certainly one thing but the beat a team three times teams do at fifty eight point three percent of the time. I think something. That's really interesting about this conference tournament. And maybe this is the reason. Why Right State has had some success against Kentucky massive pace war between right state and Northern Kentucky? Right state you know kind of a top thirty five team in Tempo Northern Kentucky of bottom fifty team and tempo and that will be interesting because the way that this is currently set up. It looks like you probably end up seeing northern Kentucky. Play Green Bay on Monday. Green Bay also likes to push the tempo also likes to push the pace so on one hand you can say Okay Northern Kentucky will have just played a game and a higher tempo. They're going to be more prepared for it. Taking on Wright state in a potential championship game or on the flip side they may play to very UPTEMPO Games back to back. That's not the nurses style. There are not a great three point shooting team. That could really work to their detriment. Here I kind of like right state even Chaki play minus one ten because like you said they got a win two games and even if they draw Illinois Chicago. Who is maybe the best defensive team in this conference? I still think they're draws a little bit easier. Ya again. I I have just slightly higher as far as defense goes right states right there as well but I completely agree with you. Green Bay is number eight and temple. As far as Ken Palm Ratings Go An- and right state is number thirty two for for these kids to be running up and down that court back to back nights the way they are when they're not accustomed to it. I think that would be a clear play for me where I can see a live betting situation. Where if the Games tied at the half I would clearly be on right state or even afraid states down a few as long as right state was able to control the tempo and get enough. Get enough shots off. Then I'd be looking to play right state in the second half. Well that's another excellent talking point here. I mean obviously you know with clients. You can't necessarily sell them. Second half plays. It's just such a small window but personally with bedding your bankroll these conference. Tournaments are a unique animal. Because as we've said you play back to backs or you play three games in five days depending on how the conference German is set up. Live betting second-half betting tons of opportunities for that here at this time of the year. Yeah and after member. Northern Kentucky has three sophomores in their starting lineup including a point guard. So you have a situation. Where is it surprising that you know down the stretch they went? What twelve and three losses to write state top three Defense Illinois Chicago at home top three defense right stated home top three defense so I think when you're playing those tougher defenses and you have that sophomore? Yeah Bryson Lankans played a lot and he started most of this year but he still is a first year starter. He didn't play at all last year. You know he red shirted so know I look at it and I think there's value with Wright state at at minus one ten because of the because of the only having to play the two games and just the better team the best player on the court. No question and the better coach. You know you have to remember that Northern Kentucky is you know is a first year under Darrin Horn. He stayed home. Obviously he was an assistant there. As as the as the coach from last year John Brannon went to Cincinnati. But you have a first year head coach coaching his first tournament. I think that's a negative as well all right so another conference tournament that starts on Tuesday. Here we've got four of them to talk about the ace on the big south the horizon. Now we talk about the Patriot league this obviously going to be a one bid league but you know what we don't have any odds for this conference tournament but it does look very very interesting because usually we think. Patriot league we think Bucknell. They're not very good this year. In fact it's been kind of a struggle for them a little bit here of late. Colgate is the number one seed American and be tied with twelve and six conference records. American gets the two CD tiebreakers. So beat you. Is it three seat here? Army and Lafayette tied at and eight but army won both head to head meetings. They're the four seed all of these games on campus sites. This is not a conference tournament that this is a pretty decent conference though where a lot of these teams are pretty interchangeable out of these teams grade. Pretty equally VIC. Maybe we've got some value on somebody that's not the number one seed colgate. I mean you're looking at you know the top team. There was no one that dominated down the stretch as you said looking back at the last ten games American colgate and Boston University were all seven and three loyal Maryland. Lafayette Army were all. Six and four. Lehigh was five and five. So you know you add into that situation. The home-court Edge. I it's GONNA be. It's going to be big and I look at the best defensive team. Best Defensive Team is American no question. The best offensive team is going to be Boston. I think Boston you has has a shot. The way the way he has he has finished played. Your normal tough schedule down the stretch. You look at how they finished. And they're like nine and three their last twelve. They lost a colgate by sixteen. That was a game that just got away from Lafayette. A two point loss Lee high in overtime loss by two points. They've been in every game and a team that I have circled that I'll look at. Don't also get to the window with him but I certainly may be on them once or twice betting wise one of all throw out here is actually Lafayette and Lafayette is going to be a team where we talked about betting future. We'll also talk about money line rollovers and I think the money line rollover more often than not going to be a better course of action for you. Because you're going to get a much bigger price then that initial futures investment and also to the way you hedge your money. Line Rollover is this simply stopped betting it if you bet a future and that team gets the championship game while you probably have to invest more money on the other side to make your hedge. Lafayette is the Five C. They are on the road at army. That's going to be a pick em type of situation there but this Lafayette team. They beat Boston University. They lost a B. You buy a point. They've played very very well against colgate. They had they. They actually beat colgate twice in the regular season. Lafayette is very inconsistent. Though they've played up to the superior competition down to the inferior competition so there is some worrying that but that's why you take this money line rollover price where if they beat army your roll that over and underdog role against Colgate if they beat colgate you roll that over into an underdog role..